QB Bo Nix Fantasy Impact

By T.J. Besler | May 9, 2024

Bo Nix Fantasy

The Denver Broncos selected Oregon QB Bo Nix with the No. 12 pick in this year’s draft making him the sixth QB taken in the first round, tying the all-time record. Sean Payton and the Broncos are hoping that through Nix they will be able to find some consistency at the most important position in football and stabilize their QB situation for years to come. As a five-year starter in college with 61 starts over three seasons, Nix will bring a lot of playing experience with him. Nix completed 74.9% of his throws over his last two seasons, with 74 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. It may be unrealistic to think that Payton can do for Nix what he did for Drew Brees in New Orleans, but that is certainly what Payton is hoping. With first-round draft capital NIx will get every chance to prove himself, but whether or not he will become the long-term answer for the Broncos remains to be seen.

Fantasy Value

Coming into the NFL Draft Nix was lumped in the second-tier of rookie signal callers along with Michael Penix Jr. There was also considerable speculation that if he was available when it came time for the Broncos to draft, he would be their choice. Sean Payton confirmed as much when he said that Nix was their target all along and that they did some special maneuvering to land him. Nix is an experienced QB with the type of toughness and leadership traits that Payton loves. He also plays a clean game with very few mistakes. But he lacks the explosiveness to create plays on his own, although he can scramble when called upon to do so. As part of a quarterback room that includes Jarrett Stidham, Zach Wilson, and Ben DiNucci it’s difficult to imagine that Nix won’t win the starting job outright. So while he didn’t initially profile as a clear Day 1 starter, Nix fell into one of the best and most shallow QB situations imaginable. Still, there’s not a ton of value for Nix in redraft leagues. In most leagues, he’s not even being drafted and shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a bench stash in the event he develops quickly, but even then you’re probably safe keeping him on the waiver wire until that happens.

Dynasty Value

Nix is an interesting fantasy football dynasty option and is my QB5 for dynasty rookie drafts, although there is a pretty wide gap between Nix and the top four. He’s also a top-30 overall selection. In 2QB/Superflex leagues he gets bumped up to a top-12-15 prospect. The range of outcomes for his career is wide. Nix is not as athletic as other prospects that have failed to live up to expectations (ie. Justin Fields) and the history of five-year QBs is not great, but the draft cost for Nix should be less than it was for Kenny Pickett two years ago. With Payton as his coach and some decent, if not spectacular, talent on the roster there’s a chance the Broncos can bring out the best in Nix and surprise all of us by developing him into one of the more promising QBs from this draft class. The more likely outcome, though, is that, at best, he develops into a consistent game manager who doesn’t make a lot of big, high-upside, splash plays that win you the week, but also doesn’t make the type of mistakes that can lose you the week.

Conclusion

From a skill group perspective, Bo Nix doesn’t have elite talent around him. Yet, Nix arguably landed in the best coaching situation out of any rookie QB. Sean Payton is a proven winner who helped coach Drew Brees to a Hall of Fame career. While things didn’t work out with Russell Wilson, Nix gives the Broncos a chance to reset the clock and hopefully build toward long-term success. In season-long, redraft formats you can wait to add Nix off the waiver wire if he becomes fantasy-relevant, or if you play in a keeper league you could stash him on your bench just in case. I don’t see a ton of upside for Nix, but as a top-12 selection, he has to be taken seriously in dynasty formats. He should be a late first-round/early second-round pick in 2QB/Superflex rookie drafts, and in 1QB leagues, I would grab him as early as the late second or early third round.

Rookie Impact Articles

Previous Article RB Trey Benson Fantasy Impact

T.J. Besler

A die hard Bears fan and fantasy sports fantastic, T.J. Besler earned his journalism (and theatre) degree from The University of Iowa. When he isn’t busy writing parodies for his YouTube channel Parodies for Charities he can be found either on stage performing or doing all things fantasy football related. Besler has traveled to nearly all 50 states either for work or leisure, and is grateful to everyone who has helped him along the way, especially his lovely wife Elsa, without whom much of this would not be possible. BEAR DOWN!