Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 4
Injuries headlined Week 3, including Christian McCaffrey, then Dalvin Cook missed the last game as expected. Good on those fantasy managers that drafted and stashed Chuba Hubbard and Alexander Mattison. It's a weekly game in fantasy football, and often we have to make roster decisions based on a small sample of data. Let's see what the advanced stats tell us after Week 3 as we review last week, then look forward to Week 4 fantasy football sleepers.
Sleeper Recap: Week 3 Review
Daniel Jones
In the cake matchup of the season for Daniel Jones, he scored 16.5 (No. 20) fantasy points against the Falcons. However, Jones still boasted a solid 7.6 yards per attempt yet zero passing touchdowns and rushing touchdowns. The rushing yards remain, and Jones didn't tank a fantasy squad if fantasy managers started him last week.
Well, I expected a high-scoring matchup on Monday Night Football, and it ended up that way. However, the Cowboys blew out the Eagles by 20 points with a 62 point total. Outside of Jalen Hurts picking it up towards the end of the game while playing from behind, most of the Eagles' pass-catchers didn't perform well. Kenneth Gainwell caught three of four targets for 32 receiving yards with only one carry for two yards. However, they couldn't move the ball on the ground and tossed the run game aside against the Cowboys. Gainwell should hold stash-worthy value, and the 10.6% (No. 23) target share keeps us optimistic. If Miles Sanders struggles or misses time, Gainwell's stock will shoot up.
The usage for Cordarrelle Patterson looked great through two weeks with a healthy target share. Add in the efficiency, and Patterson moved into the flex position start/sit conversations. Patterson earned a 19.4% target share in Week 3 for a season-high 102 total yards for a top-20 performance of 16.2 (No. 19) points. With Patterson's high efficiency evidenced by 7.0 (No. 2) yards per touch, 4.03 (No. 2) yards per route run, and 5.35 (No. 1) yards created per touch, value him as an RB2 in PPR leagues.
My bonus sleeper wide receiver pick of Week 3 smashed in Emmanuel Sanders since the peripherals looked solid. Sanders hauled in five of six targets for 94 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The entire Buffalo passing offense bounced back, and we highlighted that in the Week 3 Winners, Losers, and Takeaways. Josh Allen keeps spreading it around, so the target share likely won't rank highly for Sanders. However, Sanders still plays in an offense with the 4th most Team Pass Plays Per Game with 42.7, yet Sanders garners the 8th most Air Yards (335) and 11th highest Average Target Distance (16.8).
Meanwhile, Jalen Reagor and Sammy Watkins didn't win any leagues. However, they both scored double-digit fantasy points. Reagor hauled in five of eight targets for 53 receiving yards, and Watkins reeled in four of seven for 68 receiving yards. Don't shrug off Watkins since he received 142 Air Yards last week that ranked 10th amongst all receivers. Lamar Jackson currently averages 322 Air Yards per game with 967 (No. 8) overall. That's almost 70 more Air Yards than he averaged in his peak 2019 season with 247 per game.
Lamar Jackson currently averages 322 Air Yards/G with 967 (No. 8) overall. 👀
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) September 30, 2021
Almost 70 more Air Yards than he averaged in his peak 2019 season with 247 per game. 🚀
The worst game script at -0.75 (No. 16) through 3 games compared to
+6.62 (No. 1) 2020
+7.39 (No. 1) 2019
With Reagor, the peripherals don't excite us much with a 20.2% (No. 39) target share and 22.5% (No. 57) Air Yards Share. Reagor isn't targeted deep with an 8.1 (No. 78) Average Target Distance. Furthermore, Reagor lacks efficiency, evidenced by a 5.6 (No. 80) Yards Per Target and -2.6 (No. 111) Production Premium. Hold onto Reagor in deeper leagues, but he's on the fringe of the bench for now.
Hopefully, folks appreciate the reflection on the process because we'll continue to utilize the advanced stats to guide us towards sleeper picks that could turn into weekly players to start. We know the phrase process over results, but we also need positive results. However, just because the outcomes end up positive, it doesn't mean the process is perfect. The process should adjust with more data and trends with this weekly game that includes variance.
Fantasy Football Sleepers: Week 4
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold at DAL
The Sam Darnold revival in 2021 keeps occurring through three weeks. Darnold's 21.4 (No. 12) fantasy points per game align with the passing efficiency numbers. Through three weeks, Darnold ranks 9th with 888 passing yards with an 8.0 (No. 11) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt. He even produced on the ground with 4.7 (No. 8) carries per game and three (No. 1) rushing touchdowns amongst quarterbacks. However, Darnold only averages 17 (No. 29) rushing yards per game, which means that touchdown production isn't sustainable.
With Christian McCaffrey injured, there's a chance the Panthers go a bit more pass-heavy with stud D.J. Moore while mixing in Robby Anderson again. Sam Darnold's 8.0 (No. 11) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt stayed high, and the passing touchdowns should follow with only a 2.8% touchdown rate yet the 9th most passing yards. Look for Darnold to put back-to-back top-12 performances at quarterback.
Running Backs
Zack Moss vs. HOU
We're cheating here because he's above the 40% roster rate threshold of Yahoo. However, Zack Moss moves up into potential sleeper or must-start status against the Texans. In the two active games, Moss went from a 28.6% snap share to 51.3%. The opportunities increased too from ten total in Week 2 then 16 opportunities in Week 3. Moss's two touchdowns in Week 2 boosted the production, so it's a positive sign that the total yardage and usage increased in Week 3.
Meanwhile, we have a downward trend in snap share and opportunity with Devin Singletary. Singletary went from a 74.7% snap share in Week 1 to 66.7% in Week 2, then 46.1% in Week 3. The total yardage with a similar opportunity looked solid in Weeks 1 and 2, but Singletary stunk in Week 3. Moss and Singletary will share touches and targets, but we want a piece of this backfield, especially in Week 4 against the Texans. It's a two-game sample, but Moss showed the ability to create yards with 3.54 (No. 15) yards created per touch compared to Singletary's 1.66 (No. 45).
Wide Receivers
Emmanuel Sanders vs. HOU
After a top-5 fantasy week last game, Emmanuel Sanders' roster rate jumped over 50% on Yahoo. However, Sanders heads into Week 4 with a juicy matchup. Honestly, most of the Bills players could have helpful fantasy weeks, but there's a chance some of the players end up game scripted out. Look for Sanders to feast based on the advanced stats noted earlier, including 335 (No. 8) Air Yards and 16.8 (No. 11) Average Target Distance on a team with the 4th most Team Pass Plays Per Game (42.7).
Tim Patrick vs. BAL
Pour one out for my favorite deep sleeper in K.J. Hamler suffered a torn ACL that ended his season. Although the fantasy production looked better for Tim Patrick, I noticed the usage and opportunity looked similar for Patrick and Hamler in Week 2 with no Jerry Jeudy.
Digging in the advanced stats from Week 2
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) September 23, 2021
Tim Patrick vs. K.J. Hamler
-Snap Share - 70.1% vs. 71.6%
-Routes - 29 vs. 27
-Targets Per Route Run - 13.8% vs. 11%
-Air Yards Share - 5.9% vs. 14.7%
Still holding out hope for Hamler 🤞#FantasyFootball
Patrick's advanced stats don't look that appealing with a 14% (No. 66) target share, 15.9% (No. 73) Air Yards Share, and a 10.7 (No. 49) Average Target Distance. However, when a receiver holds a 16.7% touchdown rate, fantasy managers take notice.
Given the low 31.7 (No. 22) Team Pass Plays Per Game plus the slow 1.73 (No. 28) Pace of Play, Teddy Bridgewater and Tim Patrick will have to rely on efficiency. That makes sense with the early season opponents plus the 4th ranked Game Script at +5.95. Since the Broncos played with a lead often, it usually translates into a slow Pace of Play as the team eats up the clock. However, in Week 4 against the Ravens, it'll test the Broncos' offense to pass more. Hopefully, Patrick's 13.4 (No. 9) yards per target and +17.9 (No. 25) Production Premium maintain, assuming a bit more opportunity in the passing game.
Hunter Renfrow at LAC
With Derek Carr airing it out, evidenced by the No. 1 ranking in passing yards (1,203) and Air Yards (1,244), one sneaky Raiders receiver soaked up WR2 type numbers in receptions and receiving yards. That's none other than Hunter Renfrow, who garners a measly 17.9% (No. 52) target share and 14.7% (No. 78) Air Yards Share. However, he hauled in an average of 5.3 receptions and 68 receiving yards through three weeks.
Although Hunter Renfrow hasn't produced efficiently with 9.3 (No. 32) yards per target and +12.2 (No. 39) Production Premium, he boasts a 3.00 (No. 4) Target Separation and 24.1 (No. 5) Expected Points Added (EPA). Through three games, the Chargers defense ranks 7th in passing yards allowed and 9th in passing attempts. However, opposing offenses ran it on the Chargers with the most rushing yards allowed.
In Week 3, Clyde Edwards-Helaire went 17 carries for 100 rushing yards. Then in Week 2, the Cowboys totaled 180 rushing yards on 29 total attempts, with Antonion Gibson totaling 90 rushing yards in Week 1. Expect the Raiders to establish the run, but Renfrow could eat in the short and middle areas of the field. The Chargers kept speedster Tyreek Hill in check with five receptions and 56 receiving yards, so we expect them to take away Darren Waller, which could mean more receiver opportunities in Week 4.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz vs. CAR
The Cowboys' tight end Dalton Schultz coming off the No. 1 ranked performance in Week 3 after hauling in two touchdowns on six of seven targets for 80 receiving yards. While we don't expect a TE1 type performance from Schultz consistently, his opportunity and productivity look solid across the board. Schultz ranks 14th with a 13.8% target share and 12th with a 13.2% Air Yards Share. However, the low routes ran concern us compared to other tight ends in the top-12.
Although he only received one red-zone target, Schultz eats up the PPR game with 4.7 receptions and 47.7 receiving yards per game. That's not league-winning type production, but it's better than most touchdown-dependent tight ends sitting outside the top 5-6 at the position. Let's see if the efficiency remains high for Schultz with 9.5 (No. 8) Yards Per Target, +20.7 (No. 9) Production Premium, and 2.69 (No. 4) fantasy points per target. If anything, Schultz rates as the top sleeper tight end with potential weekly viability.
Dawson Knox vs. HOU
How many Bills will score against the Texans? Answer - all of them. All kidding aside, Dawson Knox keeps putting up uber-efficient production with ten catches on 12 targets for 107 receiving yards and two touchdowns. That's all we're looking for with deep-league tight ends - a chance of scoring a touchdown.
However, it feels like Robert Tonyan from 2020, but even fewer opportunities. That's not a recipe for success or consistency, but if it's a tight end premium league and deep starting rosters, Knox could end up in a lineup as a sleeper against the Texans. With a measly 9.9% (No. 31) target share yet the 10th highest yards per target (8.9) and 22nd ranked Production Premium (+8.3), it's quite a low probability that Knox keeps up the 20% touchdown rate.
Corbin Young
Corbin is passionate about fantasy baseball and football. He loves diving into and learning about advanced metrics. Corbin is a Mariners and Seahawks fan living in the Pacific Northwest. Corbin's other hobbies are lifting weights, cooking, and listening to fantasy sports podcasts.