J.K. Dobbins Fantasy 2023
J.K. Dobbins has been a frustrating fantasy commodity to be sure. In three NFL seasons he has only played 23 games. But toward the end of his rookie season he came on strong, showing a lot of promise, ending the season with nearly 1000 total yards, nine touchdowns, and an average of six yards per carry. The hype for him going into the 2021 season was deafening, making most analysts’ top 10 lists at the position. Then in the third week of the preseason he suffered the dreaded torn ACL. His season was done before it even began. Anyone hoping for him to help lead them to the fantasy football mountaintop was going to have to wait at least a year (or two.) Then 2022 came, once again, there was hope. Dobbins returned week three, but failed to recapture the magic of the end of that rookie season. Upon returning he touched the ball less than 10 times in three out of four games, re-aggravated his injury, and was out from week seven through week 13. When he did return he looked better than before, but was clearly still a work in progress, even if he did finish the season averaging 5.6 yards a carry. Now, in 2023, it sounds like he’s the healthiest he’s been. Finally off the PUP list and looking good in his first return to practice it there is reason for optimism. But once again, where there is hope, comes frustration. He started the offseason in what many were considering a hold-in and there is still some concern that he could hold out if he remains unhappy with his current situation? Dobbins is obviously talented and plays on a historically run heavy team with one of the most talented running QBs to ever play the game, which as a result opens lanes for Dobbins. But if he’s not on the field he can’t help your fantasy team. Things are definitely trending in the right direction, but you can hardly blame fantasy managers for be cautious.
Current ADP
- ADP: #49
- RB ADP: #19
Dobbins’ ADP has fluctuated a bit over the last few weeks but it has mostly stayed within a 3-5 spot range. But as the 19th running back off the board in PPR, Dobbins is being drafted as a mid to low end RB2, and for the time being, that feels about right. While it’s true that over a complete season he has as much rushing upside as most running backs, it’s also true that there are reasons beyond any potential hold-out to be cautious. Any Raven running back, no matter how talented, has always had to attribute a portion of their success to workload. With the additions of Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers, as well as a new offensive scheme under newly acquired offensive coordinator Todd Monken, that workload may not be there. It sounds odd to say, but the Ravens should be more pass heavy this year. If this happens and they are much more balanced on offense that will hurt Dobbins. The only way it doesn’t is if he gets a larger role in the passing game, but that has yet to ever be a major part of his game, and is something I would have to see to believe. Then there’s Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson. Edwards may be slowing down, but he has been highly efficient averaging 5.2 yards per carry throughout his career and the coaches trust him, so he will be involved. As for Jackson? He averages over 10 rushing attempts per game, several of which come near the goal line, so Dobbins’ upside has already been capped. If the team then changes their identity with more creativity and more pass attempts, then the total number of carries to go around will go down leading to fewer yards and fewer TDs for Dobbins. So I understand why he’s being drafted closer to his floor than his ceiling.
Fantasy Insight
There are few players with as wide of a range of outcomes as Dobbins. If he plays a full season, is a true workhorse, and sees even a slight uptick in the passing game, he could find himself in the top five at the position. If he loses carries and touchdowns to Jackson and Edwards, while at the same time continuing to see a limited role in the passing game, then finishing as a low end RB2 is probably all we can hope for. Then there’s the worst case scenario. He re-aggravates his injury, or he holds out (seeming less and less likely), and we end up wasting a draft pick on a player we don’t use far more often than we do. This is why the opinions surrounding Dobbins are so varied, and why it’s nearly impossible at this point to say which of those opinions is most accurate. I tend to think he will be out there come week one, especially with him returning to practice, but until week one, it’s all speculation. If I were drafting today, I would still be willing to take a risk on a player like Dobbins in the 5th round. Potential bell cow running backs with his talent are usually hard to find in that range.
Fantasy Value
The value of Dobbins is hard to assess without knowing how things will play out. If he hits, you could be getting a top option at the position as either your RB2 or flex. There’s also not a ton of risk with Dobbins when looking at others going around the same range in drafts. Players like Miles Sanders, George Kittle, D.J. Moore, Alexander Mattison, Cam Akers, and D’Andre Swift are all going in a similar range, and all have question marks of their own. Questions about how large their role will actually be in the offense. Questions about how good the offense can be overall. Questions about whether or not they can actually succeed in a lead role. These are questions that don’t surround Dobbins. We most likely know what his role will be when he plays. We know that this will be a good offense. We know that he can have success if asked to take on a large role. Yes, there are questions of how healthy Dobbins truly is, but that’s already baked into the cost, and being two years removed from his injury he should be good to go. The main thing these other players have over Dobbins is we know for certain they will be on the field come week one, but with how things are trending I still see Dobbins as a value and I would take him over every single one of those players.
Dynasty Value
The dynasty value of Dobbins all rests on what you believe is the most likely outcome. It’s difficult to make a long term investment in a player that has only shown his massive upside in a limited capacity. It’s made even harder when that player seems unhappy with his situation and the overall market value for running backs is diminishing. But at only 24 years of age, it’s probably too early to give up on Dobbins if he is currently on your roster. This makes him a hold. Even if you did want to sell him, now would not be the time to do so. The return you would get would be less than he’s worth. I also wouldn’t go out of my way to buy Dobbins, unless you are able to get him fairly cheap. He should grow into a consistent RB2 with RB1 upside, but I would want to see it first before investing in that promise.
Bold Prediction
I don’t know how bold this may be, but with the circumstances surrounding both his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s as bold as I’m willing to get. Dobbins will play an entire season on his way to 1200 total yards and 10 TDs.
