Las Vegas Raiders (3-4) vs. Detroit Lions (5-2)
- Spread: Detroit Lions -7.5
- Over/Under: 46.5
Breakdown
The NFC North-leading Detroit Lions are looking to bounce back after coming off a lopsided loss to the Ravens 38-6 last week. The Lions go as Jared Goff goes, and so far, this offense has looked very good. Goff has thrown for 1,902 yards, 11 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions. Goff is having to step up with running back David Montgomery missing this game with a rib injury. Montgomery has been a touchdown machine this season, already rushing in 6 touchdowns in the four full games he played (exited the game week 6 early). Jahmyr Gibbs has gotten off to a slow start but the Lions are just easing the rookie into the system and in week 7 when he was the lead back, he ran for 68 yards, 1 touchdown, and added another 9 receptions for 58 yards. Gibbs and Montgomery can be a very effective running back duo with Gibbs handling passing downs and Montgomery running between the tackles and in the redzone. The star of this offense is wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown has been a pass-catching machine this season. Hauling in 5 or more receptions in every game and bringing in double-digit catches in back-to-back games. Easily Goff’s favorite target and I see no reason why this trend should stop. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has broken out to start this season, bringing in 35 catches for 377 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Raiders’ offense has not quite gotten into a rhythm to start this season but should be getting veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo back from injury for this game. Garoppolo left partway through the week 6 game with a back injury. The Raiders need to get Davante Adams going. Adams is one of the best route runners in the league and should be utilized heavily by Jimmy G in this offense. Adams has only eclipsed the 100-yard mark once this season and hasn’t recorded a game with more than 60 yards in three weeks. The other star player on this offense is Josh Jacobs. Jacobs has only scored twice this year and last season’s rushing leader has only eclipsed 70 or more yards one time this season. Jacobs has been utilized in the passing game and should continue to see multiple targets every game. Jakobi Meyers has been a nice addition to this offense and has brought in 5 touchdowns already.
Keys to Victory
Detroit Lions: The Running Game. Jahmyr Gibbs and Craig Reynolds need to move the chains for the Lions to be effective. Goff should do his thing but could face pressure all night from Maxx Crosby. Without Montgomery in the backfield getting the bulk of the carries, it could prove difficult to get a consistent rush attack going. If the Lions lead, they need to establish the halfbacks and be able to move the chains and kill the clock effectively if need be.
Las Vegas Raiders: Protect the ball. The Raiders rank last in the league in turnover difference. The Lions do not turn the ball over often so giving them extra possessions with turnovers will prove costly. Jimmy G needs to do a good job protecting the ball and getting the offense in situations that do not warrant the risky pass too often.
Prop Bet Pick
Josh Reynolds Over 35.5 Receiving yards
Reynolds has hit this line in 6 of 7 games and by a convincing margin. His season low of receiving yards, when making at least 1 catch, has been 43 yards. Reynolds has appeared to be Goff’s go-to for the big plays down the field. Jameson Williams should continue to get more involved as the season progresses, but I still believe Reynolds is the team’s number 2 target until Williams shows more ability in this offense.
DFS Picks
Lions Offense: Josh Reynolds. He has been involved in every game and could see redzone opportunities. Reynolds has already brought in 3 touchdowns this season. He is a player that does not need many targets to have an effect on the game.
Raiders Offense: Jakobi Meyers. The Raiders offense really only involves three players, Adams, Jacobs, and Meyers. Meyers is by far the least costly player to put in your lineup. Meyers is also heavily targeted. In 4 of his 6 games, he has seen double-digit targets.
A cheaper option for the Raiders would be rookie tight end Michael Mayer. Mayer started slow but has seen 4 and 6 targets in his last two games. Not as flashy, and that’s why his price is much lower, but his involvement has gone up recently. Showing he may be more comfortable in the scheme.
