New England Patriots (6-6) vs. Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
- Spread: Patriots -1.5
- Over/ Under: 43.5
Breakdown
The New England Patriots visit the Arizona Cardinals in this week 14 matchup. This matchup is huge for both of these teams’ playoff hopes. Both of these teams are on the outside looking in and a loss here would make getting into the playoffs a long shot. For the Patriots to take the next step as an offense, they need Mac Jones to progress as a quarterback. Jones has missed a few games this season due to injury but has not been effective when he’s been healthy. Jones has 7 passing touchdowns compared to 7 interceptions and 1 fumble. The center point of the offense is running back Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson is a hard runner but he thrives in the passing game. Since week 3, Stevenson has seen 5 or more targets in every game except 1 (week 5). Bringing in 3 or more receptions in every game since week 5. Stevenson is a great mix of power and agility. He can beat defenders in space or go right through them to gain extra yards. The Patriots are going to need Rhamondre to play well because their top wide receiver, Jakobi Meyers is out with a concussion. DeVante Parker and Nelson Agholor will be the top receiving options in this game with rookie Tyquan Thornton working in as the third receiver.
The Cardinals have not lived up to expectations this season. A large part of that could be attributed to the injuries sustained this season. Kyler Murray has missed 2 games, Hollywood Brown missed 5 games, James Conner missed 3 games, and Zach Ertz sustained a season-ending injury in week 10. It was not an injury but DeAndre Hopkins was also suspended for the first 6 games. This offense at full health has so many weapons and has some of the best playmakers in the whole league. Kyler Murray will be making his second start since coming back from injury. Murray is one of the most exciting quarterbacks because of what he can do with his legs. One of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the league can extend any play and can be tough for defenses to stop. James Conner is coming off his best game of the season, 120 yards rushing with 20 receiving yards and a touchdown in week 13. New England is one of the best defenses at stopping the run so it could be tough sledding for Conner. DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown will be the receiving options giving the Patriots secondary issues. Hopkins has been great since making his season debut in week 7. Hopkins has 574 yards and 3 touchdowns in his 6 games played this season. Hollywood Brown will be playing his second game since coming off of injury. Brown is off to a great start this season, accounting for 531 yards and 3 touchdowns in 7 games. Rookie, Trey McBride will be getting the majority of snaps at tight end now that Ertz is injured.
Keys To Victory
Patriots: Mac Jones. Mac Jones is the key to the Patriots winning games. The Patriots have a great defense, so the offense does not need to score 30+ points a game to win. If Mac Jones can control the game and not turn the ball over, the defense should be able to keep them in the game. Jones has been much better about turnovers in recent games; Mac has not turned the ball over in the last 4 games.
Cardinals: Take what the Patriots defense gives you. Belichick is known for taking the other team’s best offensive weapon away. Hopkins could have a tough night if that is whom the defense focuses on. Let Hollywood and Conner carry the load on offense and utilize Hopkins when you can.
Prop Bet Pick
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+250)
The Patriots defense is great at stopping the run and great at taking the number 1 option on the offense. Hollywood is an electric receiver who has a great connection with Kyler Murray. Brown has seen 8 or more targets in every game he has played in since week 1.
DFS Plays
Patriots: Hunter Henry. Not a flashy pick but the Cardinals rank last in the league at defending tight ends. Henry is a less costly option than other star players in this matchup and has a real shot to have a good game and should see some looks in the redzone. He is coming off back-to-back games with 5 targets.
Cardinals: Trey McBride. The Patriots have a good defense but they struggle with covering the tight end in comparison to stopping the other positions. The Patriots have only allowed 2 rushing touchdowns to halfbacks and close to the goal line the cardinals may lean on the big-bodied tight end to get it done.
