NFL DFS Picks: Week 11
The NFL season moves fast, doesn’t it? It feels like only a moment ago that we were jumping into the beginning of a year with no preseason, trying to navigate the uniqueness of 2020 while wondering how many weeks would even be played at all. Now, with Thanksgiving just around the corner, we’re well past the midway point of the year, and it’s almost certain to be a frantic run to the finish given division games are seemingly backloaded all across the schedule.
One of the challenges about the weeks moving so quickly, though, is that there’s hardly any time to take a break. Aside from opening night, Thursday Night Football used to not start until around this time in the season; now, it’s one of three primetime games every week. I’ve played every showdown slate in addition to the main slates thus far (that’s over 40 slates, for those of you keeping track at home), and, well—it’s a lot. I love the research and the grind and content production and the sweat, but there’s no doubt keeping up takes a toll.
With that in mind (and the fact that I’ll be spending Saturday night, when I usually build lineups, doing color commentary on the radio for Stanford football vs. Washington State), I’m thinking about making Week 11 my “bye,” so to speak, and playing a bit lighter in DFS. An angle of mental health that I didn’t have space to touch upon last month but find immensely important is burnout, so while I’m not there, I imagine even a pseudo-break might go a long way toward maximally enjoying the rest of the season. For those of you chugging along, fear not; I’m still going all in to give you my very best NFL DFS Picks again for Sunday right here.
Fellow FantasyData expert Chris Mitchell and I co-host a podcast, Slate Breakers, going into further detail on each DFS main slate. Episodes will be embedded in these preview articles once live later in the week, and for even more content, make sure to follow me on Twitter.
DFS Tools & Popular Pages
- NFL Optimizer
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- DFS Premium Content
- DFS Salaries
- NFL Player Projections
- Week 11 Rankings
Quarterback
What QB on this slate do you think averages the most fantasy points/game? Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson play on Thursday; Patrick Mahomes on Sunday night; Josh Allen is on bye. As I’m sure you would’ve predicted back in September, the answer is Justin Herbert ($6800 on DraftKings). I’m not overly excited about playing him given Anthony Lynn is the type of coach who will slow down the game when he can, making the other high-priced options Lamar Jackson ($7300)—who won’t be as appealing a contrarian play given the lack of elite options—and Aaron Rodgers ($7000). There isn’t a single over/under above 51.0, as it stands.
Not only is Rodgers hit with a subpar matchup against Indy, but so is Deshaun Watson ($6500), at least in the sense that I don’t expect the Patriots and Cam Newton ($6200) to throw much unless they’re trailing. Ben Roethlisberger ($6700) ties his highest salary of the season while coming off a 32-point day. I expect much discussion to focus around Jameis Winston ($5900), though, and I’m giving him the green light—also note Taysom Hill has TE eligibility on FanDuel. You can go further down to Joe Burrow ($5500) or Andy Dalton ($5300) for value; it’s really not a thrilling week at the position overall.
Favorite Plays: Lamar Jackson ($7300), Jameis Winston ($5900), Joe Burrow ($5500)
Running Back
I list multiple 5K QBs among my favorites because the uncertainty at the position gives flexibility to pay down and spend elsewhere, with RB being a logical jump. It’ll cost you to play Alvin Kamara ($9200) or Dalvin Cook ($9000), while paying for both could make for a contrarian build. I do think those two are deservedly head and shoulders above the rest of the field, but there are a few other guys on this slate that have substantial ceilings in their own right; Miles Sanders’ ($6900) workload isn’t as different from them as you might think, albeit an underdog against the Browns.
Two bad run defenses facing off against each other could make for profit in regards to Mike Davis ($6800) or D’Andre Swift ($6400); I’m giving James Conner ($6600) one more chance in tournaments with the field likely to focus on Pittsburgh’s passing attack. Washington’s vast involvement of Antonio Gibson ($5800) and J.D. McKissic ($5200) puts them both in play, with Gibson sporting the higher ceiling; Duke Johnson ($5400) might fly under the radar after flopping in a tough weather game.
Things dry up pretty fast after that, with a few contested backfields that are tough to forecast and a handful of teams offering very little fantasy appeal to begin with. I suppose Ezekiel Elliott ($6500) and James Robinson ($6400) get good usage, but they’re going to need touchdowns to produce on the upper end. Giovani Bernard ($5500) is fine, while Nyheim Hines ($5200) and Jordan Wilkins ($4000) are cheaper than Jonathan Taylor ($5800) but still battling for snaps. La’Mical Perine ($4400) is on the better end of punt options.
Favorite Plays: Dalvin Cook ($9000), Miles Sanders ($6900), D’Andre Swift ($6400), Antonio Gibson ($5800), Duke Johnson ($5400)
Wide Receiver
It’s funny to think that Davante Adams ($8600) scoring nearly 20 points wasn’t enough, but he’s set some serious expectations and needs to dominate other WRs to justify his price. You have to go back to January 2017 to find the last time Julio Jones ($7500) scored against the Saints—I think that streak could come to an end here, though it sounds like Calvin Ridley ($7000) is likely to play. Keenan Allen ($7400) should lead the way in Chargers stacks, while Michael Thomas ($7300) makes for an interesting pairing with Winston even if he doesn’t fit the mold of a downfield weapon.
Guys like Allen and Terry McLaurin ($6900) should always be in consideration for cash given their typical floors; if you want tournament plays, though, consider Adam Thielen ($6300) or Justin Jefferson ($6000) as pivots off Dalvin Cook. I’d give the nod Diontae Johnson ($5900) above the other Steelers wideouts as is my usual preference, with Chase Claypool ($6100) my next choice; D.J. Chark Jr. ($5700) would be the natural bring back for stacks. Marvin Jones Jr. ($5500) picked up his efficiency in Week 11, also.
You can’t knock the work that Jakobi Meyers ($4900) is getting right now. Allen Lazard ($4600) and Michael Pittman Jr. ($4500) are intriguing pieces on opposite sides; so too Rashard Higgins ($4500) and Jalen Reagor ($4300). There are worse punts than Jakeem Grant ($3500) and Jaylen Guyton ($3500), while Denzel Mims ($3300) led the Jets in air yards last time out.
Favorite Plays: Julio Jones ($7500), Terry McLaurin ($6900), Diontae Johnson ($5900), Jakobi Meyers ($4900), Jaylen Guyton ($3500)
Tight End
There isn’t a single TE priced at 5K or above. Mark Andrews ($4900) earns the #1 spot, and it’s a bummer for the Ravens, but Nick Boyle’s injury could carve out additional work for Andrews. A lot of what we’re looking at is trying to find touchdown equity, since that’ll more or less do the trick—Hunter Henry ($4600), Hayden Hurst ($4400), T.J. Hockenson ($4200), and Eric Ebron ($4000) all seem like decent candidates.
Austin Hooper ($3900) is back in the fold, Dallas Goedert ($3800) ran a route on 80% of Eagles dropbacks in Week 10, and Dalton Schultz ($3600) can hit value on short catches. I always like to make note of Logan Thomas ($3300), and Jordan Akins ($2500) or Anthony Firkser ($2500) could work at the stone minimum.
Favorite Plays: Mark Andrews ($4900), T.J. Hockenson ($4200), Dalton Schultz ($3600)
