NFL Strength of Schedule
Looking ahead to the 2023 season, I wanted to take a deeper look when evaluating the strength of each team’s schedule. Instead of relying solely on last year’s records, a more accurate measure can be found by using Vegas win totals. These win totals provide the best assessment of each team’s projected performance, taking into account factors such as offseason acquisitions, coaching changes, and player development.
So, when we look at how the teams stack up based on their opponents’ projected win totals, it’s pretty clear that New Orleans and Atlanta have the easiest schedules, while Buffalo, Kansas City, and New England are facing some tough competition. But here’s the thing: just knowing the strength of a team’s schedule doesn’t give us the full picture of what to expect from them.
Sure, the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, so it’s no surprise they have a challenging schedule. But does that automatically mean they’ll have a rough season? And on the flip side, can we really assume the Saints will do better just because they have an easier schedule? To answer these questions, we need to dive a bit deeper.
To get a better understanding, I created a chart that ranks the teams based on the strength of their schedules. The team with the easiest schedule is ranked first, while the toughest schedule is ranked last. I determined these ranks by looking at the Vegas win totals for their opponents in the 2023 season. In the chart, you’ll also find each team’s projected win total for 2023, as well as their opponent’s projected win total. I even included their win totals from the previous season and their opponents’ win totals, too. With all this information at hand, I wanted to figure out what stood out the most and how I could use it to predict each team’s performance.
So, by analyzing this chart, we can identify which teams have the best chance of capitalizing on their favorable schedules this year. It’s an intriguing way to gauge a team’s potential and see who might come out on top.
Biggest Winners
When we compare projected win totals to last season’s actual wins and we factor in projected SOS against last season’s actual SOS, we can see who is benefiting the most from this year’s schedule.
Chicago Bears
Last season, the Bears had to face the toughest schedule in the entire league, and they only managed to win three games. There’s reason for optimism, however, because this year, they have the sixth easiest schedule. That’s a significant shift. With a projected win total of 7.5, they’re expected to improve by a whopping 4.5 wins compared to last year. That’s good news for fantasy football players eyeing the Bear’s offensive stars, especially Justin Fields, who is primed for a breakout season.
San Francisco 49ers
Some teams just seem to have all the luck. The 49ers won an impressive 13 games last year and had the easiest schedule in the NFL. This year, they still have it pretty easy with the fourth easiest schedule. However, their win total dropped by 2.5 games to 10.5. It’s a small setback, but they’re still in a favorable position.
Detroit Lions
The Lions may have won nine games last year, but they did it with the fifth-hardest schedule. With a considerably easier schedule this season (ranked 9th easiest), they’re projected for 9.5 wins. That’s right within reach, and it’s clear that the Lions are a team on the rise.
Biggest Losers
Teams in the AFC West are in for a rough ride as they transition from playing against the NFC West in 2022 to the tougher and farther NFC North this year. It’s definitely a step up in difficulty.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are projected to have the second most wins above last year, with a total of 3.5 more wins. However, let’s not forget that they only managed to win five games last season, and that was with the 12th easiest schedule. This year, they face a much tougher schedule, ranked as the 10th toughest in the league. The Vegas odds seem to be banking on Sean Payton’s coaching prowess to turn the team around, but it won’t be a walk in the park for the Broncos.
Las Vegas Raiders
Here’s an interesting case. The Raiders are projected to surpass last season’s win total by 1.5 games. Sounds promising, right? Last year, they had the 7th easiest schedule, but this time around, they’re dealing with the 4th hardest one. That’s a significant jump in difficulty, so it’s hard to be confident about the Raiders reaching 7.5 wins.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers had the luxury of the second-easiest schedule last year, but things are about to change. This season, their schedule is ranked at #19 in the rankings. However, their win total only drops by half a game. Many experts believe the Chargers underachieved last year, so there’s still hope for them to surpass 9.5 wins.
