Fade LeSean McCoy, You’re Targeting the Wrong Bills RB

Buffalo Bills Backfield Shuffle

Are you actually considering drafting Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy this season? Do you feel dirty that the thought actually entered your mind? McCoy set career lows last season in rushing yards, yards per carry, and touchdowns. The 31-year old is entering the final year of a five year, $40 million contract with the Bills that included $18.25 guaranteed. The team signed free agents Frank Gore, T.J. Yeldon, and drafted Devin Singletary this offseason. If this isn’t a clear indicator of how McCoy fits into the Bills plan for the future then you should get your eyes checked. So, here are four reasons you should avoid him like the bubonic plague in fantasy football drafts this summer.

1. Don’t Be Tempted By Familiarity Bias

LeSean McCoy

McCoy is currently being drafted as the RB41 in PPR formats. On the surface, this looks like an unbelievable value for a starting RB this late in your fantasy football draft. Don’t be tempted and allow McCoy’s name value to sway you. There are other RBs who will provide you with more upside.

Pittsburgh Steelers RB Jaylen Samuels will form a committee with James Connor. The preseason will give us insight into how the backfield will be split. Samuels is capable of being an all-around back with his rushing and receiving ability. He averaged 109 total yards in the three games Conner missed last season.

Denver Broncos RB Royce Freeman will be healthy entering the 2019 season, will run behind an offensive line coached by the great Mike Munchak, and is expected to form a committee with Phillip Lindsay who is recovering from a serious wrist injury.

Los Angeles Chargers RB Melvin Gordon has decided that he is worth more than his current contract and threatening to hold out. He’s had durability concerns since entering the league back in 2015. The Chargers were 4-0 in the games Gordon missed last season and have very capable backups behind him in Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson.

Atlanta Falcons RB Ito Smith will form a committee with Devonta Freeman. Many project Smith to see a similar workload as former Falcons RB Tevin Coleman. Freeman is 27 years old, has durability concerns, and the Falcons have the ability to opt-out of his sizable contract in 2020.

Houston Texans RB D’Onta Foreman is returning from a torn Achilles injury and the word on the street suggest he has a chip on his shoulder. The only thing standing between him and fantasy greatness in the Texans run-heavy offense is Lamar Miller.

Would you rather attempt to catch a falling knife in McCoy or target another RB that offers you league-winning potential?

2. No Country for Old Men

Back in 2016, Frank Gore was the most recent RB age 31 or older to accumulate 200 or more PPR points in a single season. The chart below goes back to the year 2000 and as you can see below these types of fantasy seasons are a rarity.

Player	Season	Attempts	Yards	Targets	Rec	Rec Yards	Games	PPR
Curtis Martin	2004	371	1697	49	41	245	16	319.2
Ricky Watters	2000	276	1228	92	63	613	16	301.1
Tiki Barber	2006	327	1662	81	58	465	16	300.7
Ricky Williams	2009	241	1121	53	35	264	16	249.5
Thomas Jones	2009	331	1402	18	10	58	16	240
Fred Jackson	2013	206	890	66	47	387	16	234.7
DeAngelo Williams	2015	200	907	47	40	367	16	233.4
Garrison Hearst	2002	215	972	69	48	317	16	230.9
Mike Anderson	2005	239	1014	21	18	212	15	218.6
James Stewart	2002	231	1021	70	46	333	14	217.4
Priest Holmes	2004	196	892	25	19	187	8	216.9
Frank Gore	2016	263	1026	47	38	277	16	216.3
LaDainian Tomlinson	2010	220	905	79	52	368	15	215.3

Touches per game are the most predictive stat from one season to the next and an essential ingredient of any productive fantasy RB. Some efficiency metrics are also worth looking into. Now let’s break down McCoy number of touches and efficiency since arriving in Buffalo.

3. The Low Tire Light or Air Pressure Light is Blinking

Season	Age	Att	Yards	Rush FPOE	Targets	Rec	Rec Yards	Rec FPOE	Games	PPR
2018	30	12	36.7	-1.3	3.3	2.4	17	-0.4	14	9.1
2017	29	18	71.1	-0.9	4.8	3.7	28	-0.3	16	17
2016	28	16	84.5	4.4	3.9	3.4	23.5	0.5	15	20
2015	27	17	74.6	-0.2	4.1	2.7	24.3	0.3	12	15

Many will look at McCoy’s production from last season and come to the conclusion that he hit the wall. The warning signs were there back in 2015. McCoy had already accumulated a high number of touches in his six seasons before arriving in Buffalo.

Player Name Touches

Chris Johnson 1,899
Matt Forte 1,881
LeSean McCoy 1,761
Steven Jackson 1,748
Marshawn Lynch 1,677
Frank Gore 1,673

The only other running backs with more touches than McCoy from 2009 to 2014 were Chris Johnson and Matt Forte. He and Frank Gore are the last men still active in the NFL and are now teammates with the Bills. Were you aware that 74 percent of the fantasy seasons in which RBs have produced 230 or more PPR points have come from those aged 23 to 28? McCoy was a positive outlier. He accomplished this feat in 2016 and 2017. Were you aware that McCoy has had negative rushing fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) in three out of four seasons with the Bills? The volume has been there, but the efficiency has not. The only other active NFL player with more touches than McCoy (2,821) and Gore (3,837) entering the 2019 season is Washington Redskins RB Adrian Peterson (3,097). As if that’s not enough to change your mind let’s discuss the Bills offseason additions.

4. Offensive Upgrades

The Buffalo Bills put Josh Allen in a position to succeed with an active offseason | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | Pro Football Focus https://t.co/v8i3nDHz9q pic.twitter.com/VXrLPrsMNv

— Cover 1 (@Cover_1_) June 29, 2019

The Bills offense ranked 31st in yards per play and 30th in points in 2018. Quarterback Josh Allen scored 18 of the team’s 28 offensive touchdowns. He only played 10 full games. Allen also led the Bills in rushing yards and all quarterbacks with eight rushing touchdowns. Did you know the only quarterbacks with more deep ball pass attempts per game than Allen (5.4) were Patrick Mahomes (5.7) and Joe Flacco (5.7)? The Bills coaching staff from last season remains intact, but they upgraded the weapons around Allen. The team’s front office has added four new offensive linemen. These additions will provide Allen with more protection and improve the running game. Free-agent addition Yeldon ranked in the top-10 last season in targets and receptions. It is not out of the realm of possibilities that either he or Singletary moves past McCoy and Gore on the depth chart. Singletary has had an impressive offseason according to multiple reports. He has the balance, vision, and toughness needed to be successful in the NFL. Singletary was used a bell cow at Florida Atlantic University, but he has the frame of a change of pace back. He also struggled with drops. McCoy, Gore, and Singletary have rotated snaps with the first team. The competition will only get more intense once training camp begins.

John Brown and Cole Beasley were added in free agency to bolster a wide receiver corps that already included Zay Jones and Robert Foster. The stars are aligning for the Bills to lean heavily on Allen’s arm strength in 2019. This will limit the number of opportunities for McCoy in an already crowded backfield.

Conclusion

undefined How will you put what you learned into action? You’ve learned about other RBs to target at McCoy’s average draft position. The effect of age on PPR fantasy point production. How a high number of touches per game can disguise ineffectiveness. The offensive additions that the Bills front office has made this offseason suggest the offense will be built around Allen and not the running game.

T.J Yeldon is my preferred target at the end of fantasy drafts. He is going undrafted in some leagues. The Bills backfield is shaping up to be a committee this season. It’s unlikely that both McCoy and Gore would miss an extended period of time. The touches in the backfield would continue to be distributed. One advantage that you can leverage is Yeldon’s route running ability.

Player Name	Route Participation
Christian McCaffrey	62.70%
Todd Gurley	62.20%
Saquon Barkley	58.50%
James White	56.40%
Alvin Kamara	55.10%
Ezekiel Elliott	55.10%
David Johnson	53.10%
Dion Lewis	49.00%
Chris Thompson	47.80%
T.J. Yeldon	46.70%
Tarik Cohen	45.90%

Yeldon ranked 10th in route participation last season according to Player Profiler. He is the RB the Bills coaching staff will lean on heavily on as a receiver out of the backfield. Yeldon has accumulated 171 receptions, 1,302 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns in 51 career games. He had 55 receptions, 487 receiving yards, and four touchdowns in 2018. Yeldon is essentially free at his average draft position and is the Bills running back you should target in fantasy football drafts this summer and not McCoy.

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Data Sources for this article provided by FantasyData, Rotoviz, and Player Profiler