Should You Draft Austin Riley in 2024?
Over the last three seasons, Austin Riley has established himself as one of the most consistent and dependable hitters in baseball, averaging 36 home runs, 99 RBIs, 99 runs scored, and an impressive .878 OPS. He has also been one of the league’s most durable players, missing only eight games since the start of the 2021 season. Currently, he is the #18 player according to the consensus ADP (average draft position), and it is easy to see why. Riley is a great player, but should you really be trying to draft him this year?
Still get chills off of this one.
Matt Olson said going back-to-back with Austin Riley off of deGrom was his favorite moment in the Majors. pic.twitter.com/YkLNlTvOhZ
— Leslie Mines (@LeslieMinesIII) February 11, 2024
Why You Should Draft Austin Riley
Simply put, Riley is an elite hitter. His career slash line is .275/.341./509. Out of all major league hitters since 2021, he ranks fourth in hits (526), sixth in home runs (108), eighth in runs scored (298), eleventh in doubles (104), twelfth in RBI (297), and sixteenth in batting average (.286). Among third basemen, he has the most hits and runs scored, along with the highest batting average. Only José Ramírez and Rafael Devers have more home runs and doubles at the position, while only Ramírez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (who is no longer third-base eligible) have more RBI.
His underlying numbers are equally impressive. In 2022, Riley finished in the top 5% for metrics such as xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate. While he didn’t finish quite as high last season, he still ranked in the top 11%. This decline can likely be attributed to his subpar first half. At the All-Star Break, he was hitting .266/.327/.448 with 16 homers and 44 RBI through 89 games. These are respectable numbers, but his performance was leaving some fantasy managers frustrated. However, he quickly turned it around in the second half, slashing .300/.368/.601 with 21 home runs and 53 RBI in 70 games.
Another great reason to draft Riley in 2024 is the fact that he will hit third for the Braves. With Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies positioned to hit in front of him, and Matt Olson expected to clean up, Riley is poised to drive in over 100 runs while also crossing the plate over 100 times himself. If Riley were to struggle like he did in the first half of 2023, he would still be a top third baseman in fantasy because the Braves’ lineup is just that good.
There are some flaws in his game, but they are certainly manageable. Last season, he was in the bottom 36% for whiff rate and strikeout rate. He was also slightly below average in walk rate. These numbers may not be ideal, but he has been remarkably consistent over the years. His strikeout rate was 25.4% in 2021, 24.2% in 2022, and 24.1% in 2023. Likewise, his walk rate was 7.9% in 2021, 8.2% in 2022, and 8.3% in 2023. Though it would be nice to see these numbers improve, his current approach clearly works.
Riley has never been a speedster, and he likely will steal very few bases this season. After all, he only has five career steals. However, this common for third basemen, a position that typically prioritizes hitting over speed. While there are exceptions, like José Ramírez and Elly De La Cruz, most third basemen will provide little-to-no fantasy value outside of the batter’s box.
Overall, you should draft Austin Riley because he’s one of the most reliable players in fantasy baseball. Last season, he accumulated 615 fantasy points, good for fourteenth overall and the most among third basemen.
Why You Should Not Draft Austin Riley
Coming up with reasons why you should draft Riley is a lot easier than coming up with reasons why you should not. There are reasons to steer clear, but they have less to do with talent and more to do with Riley’s position on the draft board. Knowing which positions to prioritize in the early rounds is important, along with the ones that can wait until the mid-to-late rounds. If you want Riley, you will almost certainly have draft him in the second round. Third base is a relatively deep position this season. Outfield and starting pitcher… not so much. Riley is great, but you may want to use your oh-so-valuable second-round pick elsewhere. Some other players currently being drafted in the second round include outfielders Yordan Alvarez and Fernando Tatis Jr., along with starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes.
Unlike outfield and starting pitcher, most formats only require one or two third basemen. By punting on third base in the early rounds, you can capitalize on the weaker positions. Plus, there is a solid chance that proven veterans Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado will be available in the seventh round of most twelve-team leagues. But if you want to wait even longer, you still have a good chance of finding a productive third baseman.
Some notable third basemen currently being drafted past the 175th pick include:
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Ke’Bryan Hayes – Hayes had an outstanding second half in 2023, slashing .299/.335/.539 with 61 hits, 10 home runs, 31 runs, and 29 RBI in 49 games. His launch angle jumped from 5.2 in 2022 to 13.2 in 2023, which was likely the reason for his power increase. Drafting him in the fourteenth or fifteenth round could end up being an absolute steal.
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Noelvi Marte – After years of hype and speculation, Marte finally made his big-league debut last August. Over 125 plate appearances, he slashed an impressive .316/.366/.456 with 36 hits, 3 homers, and six stolen bases. He also hit a ball 115.6 miles per hour, putting him in the top 4% of the entire league for maximum exit velocity. Currently, Marte has the third-highest odds to win National League Rookie of the Year, trailing only Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee. There are playing time concerns for many of the Reds’ players, but drafting Marte could be a league-winning move.
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Justin Turner – Despite finishing the 2023 season with an OPS of exactly .800, Turner is generally being drafted in the 19th round. He recently signed a deal with the Blue Jays, so he will no longer play his home games at Fenway Park. However, Rogers Centre is still top 10 in park factor for right-handed hitters. He may be thirty-nine years old this season, but Turner has been as consistent as they come over the last decade, making him one of the safest third-base options later in the draft.
Final Thoughts
In reality, it comes down to personal preference. On one hand, you are practically guaranteed top-notch production at third base if you do. Projections from ATC expect him to slash .280/.350/.534 with 166 hits, 38 home runs, 100 runs scored, and 103 RBIs. Like most projection systems, ATC is generally conservative when calculating a player’s upcoming season, so do not be surprised if Riley exceeds his 2024 projections. On the other hand, ignoring the top third basemen may be a better long-term move. Using your top picks on shallower positions will like make managing your lineup much easier throughout the year. Regardless, whoever has Austin Riley on their fantasy team in 2024 probably will not end up regretting it.
