Kyle Pitts Fantasy 2023
Kyle Pitts is one of those players that if everything were ever to fall right for him, he would be a total difference-maker at the position. In 2021, his rookie season, he had 1026 yards receiving, becoming only the second rookie tight end in NFL history to go over 1000 yards – the first being Mike Ditka. Still, due to a lack of touchdown productivity (he only caught one) and total receptions, he finished anywhere from TE6-TE10, depending on format. What makes all this so frustrating is that none of it is the fault of Kyle Pitts. He looks every bit the part of the elite, game-changing TE we were promised. The issue, specifically in 2022, was who was throwing him the ball. To put it bluntly, Marcus Mariota was not good. 26% of his passes were deemed uncatchable, the second highest rate in the NFL behind only Zach Wilson. Before Pitts suffered a season-ending injury, 58 of those targets went his way. Of those 58 targets, 33 were rated uncatchable. That’s over half of his targets. Then there’s the lack of touchdowns. There is no reason a TE of his size, speed, and athleticism shouldn’t approach double-digit touchdowns or 80+ catches. But in the 27 games Pitts has played in his young NFL career he has had 96 receptions (less than four a game) and three touchdowns. You read that right, three. Until his quality of targets and usage in the red zone improve it’s hard to see him reaching his potential as a top three TE.
Current ADP
- ADP: #71
- TE ADP: #6
Based on talent and potential, this ADP feels low. Based on every other factor I’m surprised it’s this high. He’s still going ahead of people that as early as last year proved to be viable, reasonably consistent producers at the position. Players like Dallas Goedert and Evan Engram. Is Pitts a better athlete than them? Yes. The issue is that he is in a worse situation. Both Goedert and Engram are on offenses that are among the best in the NFL and should be toward the top in scoring in 2023. Besides a lack of scoring opportunities, there is also a lack of overall opportunities. The Falcons were first in the league last year in rushing attempts. They don’t pass the ball very often. There is an expectation that they plan on passing more this upcoming season, but after drafting Bijan Robinson and committing to either Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke, it’s hard to imagine their offensive philosophy drastically changing.
Fantasy Insight
Pitts is an enigma when it comes to fantasy football. We are now approaching his third season in the NFL, and although he has a 1000-yard season under his belt, he has yet to become the tight end fantasy managers were hoping for. Yes, 2022 was derailed by injuries and in his rookie season he had incredibly bad luck when it came to touchdowns, scoring one touchdown on 110 targets. That feels like an outlier of a season, but regardless, the fact remains Pitts has largely been a mediocre tight end from a fantasy perspective. This has made rostering Pitts extremely frustrating because while his talent is obvious and his upside clear, factors that are outside of his control have constantly held him back from hitting his ceiling and catapulting him into the upper echelon of fantasy tight ends. Fantasy managers keep hoping he’ll develop into a dominant force in the mold of Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews but remain doubtful as long as he is saddled with bad quarterback play and his current offensive system. These doubts are warranted. No matter how much talent a tight end has, if the quarterback cannot get him the ball, or if the team runs far more than they pass it will be difficult to produce. There is also the presence of Drake London (another talented pass catcher) and the aforementioned Robinson (a jack of all trades at the running back position.) They will definitely get a lot of work and could eat into Pitts’ role. But the numbers may tell a different tale and provide some reason for optimism. In 2021, Pitts commanded a 17.7% target share. This was sixth in the league, and yet, in 2022, London’s first year, that number improved to 26.6% which was second in the league. His targets per route run also improved from his rookie season to last year, going from 21% (10th) to 30% (1st.) These numbers are the difference between very good and elite. Robinson was not there in either year, but if, as is anticipated, there is an uptick in passing volume, even a slight one, there should be enough targets to go around. If that happens then Pitts could very well be worth the risk, especially since nearly all the negative feelings surrounding him have nothing to do with Pitts or his skillset.
The video I point to when someone asks why Kyle Pitts wasn’t goodpic.twitter.com/bQ76LpcBZf
— Ian Essig (@EssigFF) August 10, 2023
Fantasy Value
If this is the year Pitts finally puts it all together, surpassing 1000 yards while adding more touchdowns to his resume he could be the best TE value in fantasy. Projecting that happening with Ridder under center is a difficult leap to make though. While it’s impossible to imagine worse quarterback play in 2023 than the Falcons had in 2022, it’s unclear how much of an upgrade Ridder will be over Mariota. But even if the quarterback position just sees a slight improvement, that, coupled with more volume could lead to production closer to Pitts’ rookie season than his 2022 one. I certainly would not reach for Pitts, but I also understand betting on the upside of an elite talent. Currently he is being drafted closer to his floor than his ceiling. That makes sense since we have no idea how good or bad Ridder will be. If he’s drafted in the sixth round and he hits his ceiling, he will arguably be the best pick in fantasy football. If it’s more of the same, he will finish closer to TE8, which would make him a better value a round and half later than where he’s going, and a disappointment for anyone who took a chance on him at his current ADP.
Dynasty Value
In dynasty, however, Pitts is still the cream of the crop. Many fantasy managers seem to forget that Pitts is still only 22 years old (he’ll turn 23 during the upcoming season) which means he has 4-5 years before he even begins to start hitting his prime. At some point, the quarterback situation will get fixed. When that happens, Pitts will be THE tight end everyone will want on their team. He is a generational talent who plays the position much more like a wide receiver than a tight end. A match up nightmare who can line up anywhere on the field. I would not sell him in dynasty unless you’re very weak at other positions, can get a haul, and have a serviceable backup. Even if you would like to sell him, you should wait to do so. because the market is lower on him than it will be in a year or two. You will not get what he is worth. But if the current Pitts owner is starting to sour on him, and you can buy low, do it. Pitts will eventually develop into a perennial league winning player, giving you a leg up on your competition. So hold or buy, but don’t sell.
Bold Prediction
As I said, Pitts is an elite talent. He is also surrounded by elite talent at other positions in London and Robinson. The issue is we have no reason at this point to believe that Ridder is or can be elite. So while I love his long term value and believe it will be sooner rather than later when we see Pitts finally soar, his situation in 2023 will keep him grounded for at least one more season. 75 receptions, 750 yards, 3 touchdowns, TE8.
