MLB Future Odds and Predictions – Midseason Review
On March 11, I wrote about what I believed were good odds and predictions for the MLB season. We are now at the All-Star break and it’s time to see where these picks and predictions line up with what I said at the beginning of this Major League Baseball season. There have been letdowns and surprises, but it is important to remember that the season is only half over. There is plenty of time for improbable runs and returns to greatness. Where does your bet slip and favorite team line up? As was the case in the last edition of this article, these odds are based on Hard Rock Sportsbook.
American League
Previous Odds
Central: Minnesota Twins (+120), East: Baltimore Orioles (+220), West: Texas Rangers (+195)
Pennant: Baltimore Orioles (+650)
Current Odds
Central: Minnesota Twins (+195), East: Baltimore Orioles (+105), West: Texas Rangers (+900)
Pennant: Baltimore Orioles (+300)
Like I said at the beginning of the season, I’m all in on the Baltimore Orioles and it seems that my prediction is paying off. They currently have the best win percentage in the AL East and have the 2nd best record in the American League. They are a legitimate threat to take the AL Pennant even though they are 3-7 in their last 10 games. Minnesota started slow but has regressed to where I thought they’d be. The only reason this prediction isn’t a lock is Cleveland playing above their heads (they hold the best record in the American League). Unfortunately, Texas isn’t looking like a lock to even make the playoffs let alone win their division. They currently sit 7.5 games out of the Wild Card.
AL Central ❓
AL East ✅
AL West ❌
AL Pennant ✅
National League
Previous Odds
Central: Cincinnati Reds (+375), East: Atlanta Braves (-275), West: Los Angeles Dodgers (-500)
Pennant: Atlanta Braves (+260)
Current Odds
Central: Cincinnati Reds (+2000), East: Atlanta Braves (+550), West: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3000)
Pennant: Atlanta Braves (+475)
It may have been the easiest choice on this list, but the Dodgers are running away with the NL West. Everyone expected it to be this way, but I expected it to be a bit closer. They are currently 7 games ahead of the Diamondbacks even with all of their injuries. Unfortunately, Atlanta has suffered some setbacks by losing their two best players Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider. While they may be 8.5 games out from winning the NL East, they hold a 4-game lead for the top Wild Card spot. Still, I didn’t just pick them to make the playoffs. The NL Central is always up for grabs and I thought it was Cincinnati’s year. Unfortunately, that has not come to fruition. They are in 4th place and sit 8 games behind Milwaukee for the division crown. They’re also 3 games back in the Wild Card standings. Not a good pick.
NL Central ❌
NL East ❌
NL West ✅
NL Pennant ❌
Individual Awards
Previous Odds
Homeruns: Pete Alonso (+700), Stolen Bases: Elly De La Cruz (+700), Strikeouts: Kevin Gausman (+900), NLROY: Jackson Chourio (+650), ALROY: Jackson Holliday (+300), ALMVP: Bobby Witt Jr. (+2000), NLMVP: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1000), NLCY: Zac Gallen (+1200), and ALCY: Corbin Burnes (+1000)
Current Odds
Homeruns: Pete Alonso (+6500), Stolen Bases: Elly De La Cruz (-1400), Strikeouts: Kevin Gausman (+1600), NLROY: Jackson Chourio (+8000), ALROY: Jackson Holliday (+25000), ALMVP: Bobby Witt Jr. (+2000), NLMVP: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+6000), NLCY: Zac Gallen (+15000), and ALCY: Corbin Burnes (+250)
There’s a lot to unpack in this section. Let’s start with the picks that are looking like they’ll hit. De La Cruz is running away (pun intended) with the stolen bases category. He has 46 swipes while the next guy, Brice Turang, only has 30. I don’t expect this to slow down. Witt Jr. may not seem like a win, right now, but he is currently 4th in odds to win the AL MVP. The only reason he isn’t higher? Aaron Judge, Gunnar Henderson, and Juan Soto are having career years. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he wins it. Burnes is 2nd highest for winning the AL Cy Young. He’s currently 3rd in Major League Baseball in ERA. There is a genuine possibility this will come to fruition.
What good is looking at the right picks if we don’t look at the wrong ones as well? These felt good at the beginning of the year, but now I’m seriously questioning why I chose them. Alonso is 14th in Major League Baseball with 19 home runs and that is roughly half of the leader. Gausman has 104 strikeouts on the year and sits 34th. I don’t anticipate this hitting. My Rookie of the Year picks are looking worse and worse by the day. Only one of them is in the majors right now. Holliday was rushed too quickly and tallied on 34 at-bats. He’s raking at AAA, but Baltimore seems adamant that he will stay there for the year. Chourio got off to a rocky start. He’s improved, but not enough to win this award unless he goes nuclear in the 2nd half. Tatis Jr. is 8th in MVP odds despite returning to his former self this year. This is simply a product of other players having career years. Bummer. Lastly, Gallen isn’t within shouting distance of winning the NL Cy Young. He’s spent time on the IL and has been completely different than when he started the year. He sports a 9.00 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in July (when he returned from injury). Yikes.
Homeruns ❌
Stolen Bases ✅
Strikeouts ❌
NLROY ❌
ALROY ❌
ALMVP ❓
NLMVP ❌
NLCY ❌
ALCY ✅
