AFC Training Camp Position Battles to Monitor
Scouting and monitoring each NFL team’s depth chart and position battles has become a favorite summer pastime for many football fans. Analyzing these contests can have huge ramifications in fantasy football and really help the well-prepared drafter assemble a championship-contending roster.
Unfortunately, the summer of 2020 is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before and the ongoing pandemic is going to complicate all facets of football preparations. Rookies, in particular, will have a far more difficult time cracking startling lineups without the benefits of organized team activities. With a non-existent preseason schedule, newcomers will have a hard time usurping incumbent veterans and that means a lot of uncertainty for fantasy football drafts.
Now, more than ever, fans that want to succeed in fantasy football will have to put in the work to monitor daily position battles and depth charts. Let’s take a look at the AFC’s key starting lineup competitions that will have an impact on the upcoming 2020 fantasy season.
Baltimore Ravens – The league’s top offense comes off of a season where the set the all-time NFL record with 3,296 rushing yards and somehow got better by adding talented Ohio State rookie J.K. Dobbins to the mix. Dobbins has three-down potential and could make an immediate impact at the detriment of Mark Ingram, who rushed for over 1,000 yards and scored a career-high 15 times in 2019. Monitor this backfield closely as the Ravens run enough to justify multiple weekly fantasy-relevant running backs. It’s fair to expect some touchdown regression from QB led the league with 36 touchdown passes on an absurd 9.0 TD%. Jackson himself will remain a solid bet to contend with 1,000 rushing yards, so his status as an elite fantasy option remains secure. As far as the pass-catchers, Miles Boykin has a ton of sleeper appeal as the presumptive starter, while Marquise Brown offers 1000-yard, double-digit touchdown upside. Keep an eye on third-round rookie WR Devin Duvernay, who has massive dynasty appeal as the slot replacement for Willie Snead as early as 2021.
Devin* Duvernay is one of my favorite late-round picks in dynasty and redraft
•2 drops on 125 targets
•3rd in nation with 17 broken tackle & led all NCAA WRs with 372 yards after contact
•4th with 711 yards after catch
•2nd with 102 receptions
•Willie Snead in 1-yr contract— Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL) June 23, 2020
Buffalo Bills – Devin Singletary logged double-digit carries in his final six contests but is still expected to split carries with incoming rookie Zack Moss, who will take over the Frank Gore role. Moss is probably the best bet for short-yardage work but Singletary should command most of the passing-down work. Speaking of the passing attack, Buffalo will remain an old school run-first offense but has a couple of serious outside threats in John Brown and the newly-acquired Stefon Diggs. Both wideouts are solid best ball and DFS options but will likely be limited to WR3/4 value in season-long formats due to lack of target volume. Dawson Knox played the most snaps out of any Bills’ tight end from Week 9 on last year and his potential role as a red-zone weapon is worth monitoring.
Cincinnati Bengals – The new-look Bengals would have been one of the most fascinating teams to watch during the preseason. With the arrival of No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow, we should see a dramatically different offense out of Zac Taylor, who has experience with fast-paced, three-wide sets. A.J. Green returns after sitting out the 2019 season and gives Burrow a formidable 1-2 punch with Tyler Boyd. Second-round rookie WR Tee Higgins is the heavy favorite to open the season as a starter in Taylor’s three-wide sets. At tight end, C.J. Uzomah is expected to start but is largely being ignored in almost every fantasy draft. Uzomah is a sneaky bet to act as a safety valve for Burrow and could even top 70 targets if he doesn’t lose snaps to sophomore Drew Sample.
Cleveland Browns – QB Baker Mayfield looks to rebound off of a disappointing sophomore season and will have plenty of weapons to target. Cleveland’s two-headed backfield of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt returns and we can probably expect similar usage to what we saw in the second half of 2019, where both backs retained weekly RB2 value. The big addition to the offense was TE Austin Hooper, who probably won’t be targeted as much as he was in Atlanta but nonetheless remains a fantasy TE1. The biggest battle to watch in Cleveland will be WR3, but whoever wins this completion won’t have much fantasy value behind Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry.
Denver Broncos – Melvin Gordon will take over as the starter but that doesn’t mean that Philip Lindsay won’t still get plenty of opportunities. Lindsay has been a better running back over his two seasons and may be able to be plenty productive in a change-of-pace role. Try to monitor Gordon’s usage, especially in short-yardage. First-round rookie WR Jerry Jeudy should be an instant starter and is a massive upgrade over anything Denver trotted out in 2019. Jeudy is a superb route-runner and should start on the perimeter opposite of Courtland Sutton. Expect fellow rookie K.J. Hamler to man the slot.
Houston Texans – Bill O’Brien’s offense might look drastically different from a personnel standpoint but the philosophy will remain the same. The Texans are a run-first team so David Johnson‘s health is the most important aspect for Texans’ fans to watch. Johnson did not look good in Arizona but was also nursing an ankle ailment. If O’Brien was willing to give plodding journeyman Carols Hyde 245 carries, Johnson is a good bet for 1,000-plus rushing yards plus an additional 50-plus targets. The receiving corps is also intriguing as DeAndre Hopkins was inexplicably traded to the Cardinals in the deal that netted Johnson. With Hopkins’ 150 targets up for grabs, Will Fuller should be the new No. 1 option, with Randall Cobb taking over in the slot. Another newcomer, Brandin Cooks offers big-play ability and is a sneaky pick to top 100 targets. Keep an eye on how O’Brien lines up his new weapons and how they mesh with QB Deshaun Watson.
Indianapolis Colts – There are also changes galore in Indianapolis as veteran QB Philip Rivers takes over as the starter and promises big changes. Rivers is known to frequently target his running backs as outlet pass-catchers and the Colts boast a trio of talented young backs. Marlon Mack should be considered the de facto starter but talented second-round rookie Jonathan Taylor has an elite top-10 RB skillset. Nyheim Hines will also factor in on passing downs. How Frank Reich divides carries for his backs is one of the most intriguing developments to monitor. And while the backfield remains unsettled, there should also be an interesting battle for WR2/3 duties behind T.Y. Hilton. Sophomore Parris Campbell was limited to just 24 targets in an injury-plagued rookie season and will compete with second-round rookie Michael Pittman Jr. Campbell looks like a natural fit in the slot, which would put Hilton and Pittman as perimeter threats. Also, don’t discount a Colts’ tight end as having a potential top-10 role. Rivers has a long history of also targeting the position, so watching how snaps are divided between Jack Doyle and Trey Burton will also be key.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Satellite back Chris Thompson was brought in to relieve touches off of Leonard Fournette, who won’t come anywhere near 100 targets again. Thompson won’t get more than four or five carries per game but Fournette will have to be more effective in short-yardage to post RB1 numbers. The Jaguars don’t throw many passes to their tight ends, but Tyler Eifert should still be an upgrade over Josh Oliver. At wide receiver, watch how the club works in second-rounder Laviska Shenault, who offers inside/outside ability but probably won’t be able to unseat any of Jacksonville’s underrated top-3 wideouts.
Kansas City Chiefs – The defending Super Bowl champs have little turnover on offense and that’s not a bad thing. Still, one of the most significant fantasy-relevant battles to watch will be in the Cheifs’ backfield where Damien Williams has a leg up on spectacular first-round LSU rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Edwards-Helaire was a dynamic playmaker in the SEC, routinely breaking off big plays and racking up yards after contact. He’s a superb receiver as well, giving off Alvin Kamara vibes as a dangerous outlet on dig routes. Unfortunately, the lack of OTAs and preseason games will be a big impediment to CEH’s odds of winning the job over Williams but he’s still got massive upside and is a threat to produce top-5 running back numbers if he can crack Kansas City’s starting lineup.
Las Vegas Raiders – As the first wideout selected in April’s NFL Draft, Henry Ruggs should have a starting job in Week 1, opposite of Tyrell Williams. Ruggs is a burner with 4.27 speed but QB Derek Carr is more of a game manager, who relies on short, safe routes and avoids taking necessary risks downfield. Williams actually looks like a solid value at his current ADP, while slot man Hunter Renfro should lead the group in targets. Don’t expect newly-signed veteran TE Jason Witten to take many targets away from Darren Waller.
Los Angeles Chargers – It’s a new regime in Los Angeles as the Chargers will open the season without Philip Rivers under center for the first time since 2006. Expect Tyrod Taylor to open the season but to eventually cede snaps to first-round rookie Justin Herbert, whose odds of opening the season as the starter were likely dashed due to lack of practice reps during the ongoing pandemic. Either way, there’s going to be a big dropoff in the Chargers’ passing attack, which will have a negative impact on Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. With Rives, this offense didn’t throw many passes to its No. 3 and No. 4 wideouts and the team’s lack of depth indicates that trend should continue. As thin as the receiving corps is, LA’s backfield offers more promise. It remains to be seen how Austin Ekeler will fare in a featured role, but the departure of Melvin Gordon frees up 17 touches per game for Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley. Jackson is the heavy favorite to win the majority of those touches, but whoever claims a potential double-digit carry role in this offense certainly has solid fantasy value as a later-round flier.
Miami Dolphins – Like the Chargers, Miami may choose to open the season with veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick under center but don’t discount No. 5 overall pick Tua Tagovailoa‘s chances of starting sooner rather than later. Regardless of who opens the season, the Dolphins have a pair of solid perimeter wideouts and will feature a ton of snaps with TE Mike Gesicki running out of the slot. Miami will have a totally revamped backfield with Jordan Howard and Matt Breida likely forming a 1-2 committee backfield. Based on his pass-catching abilities, Breida offers the most fantasy appeal but we’ll have to keep an eye on the snap counts this summer.
New England Patriots – For the first time since the first year of George W. Bush’s first term, the Patriots will be trotting out a new franchise signal-caller. Cam Newton is one of the biggest wild cards of the entire 2020 football season. If he’s healthy, Newton’s dual-threat capabilities could be quite potent in a reworked Josh McDaniels offense. Newton lacks the touch and accuracy that his predecessor possessed, but has the athleticism to be a huge weapon as a rusher for a team that has struggled in that area over the past two seasons. Seeing how Belichick and company adjust their offensive play-calling and approach is undoubtedly one of the most intriguing storylines of the summer and will have a massive impact on New England’s entire skill position group. Obligatory #kickersmatter content: Justin Rohrwasser has a big, accurate leg and will take over for Stephen Gostkowski. The Patriots routinely rank in the top-5 in points scored, which makes the fifth-round rookie a solid target in the final round.
New York Jets – Few NFL coaches are as adept as Adam Gase at getting less out of more and Gase’s mere presence will continue to have a negative impact on the entire Jets’ roster. Gase has managed to both alienate and neutralize RB Le’Veon Bell, who is still capable enough of being a solid fantasy RB1 if he were with a better franchise. Bell still has RB2 value but will cede some carries to Frank Gore and Lamical Perine. Watch Perine closely, as he’s the best bet to ascend to the starting job if something were to happen to Bell- which isn’t out the realm of possibilities considering his contemptuous relationship with Gase. Breshad Perriman will take over as the main outside deep threat for Robby Anderson, and second-round rookie Denzel Mims is the favorite to start opposite of Perriman. With two new perimeter wideouts and a lack of practice reps, slot receiver Jamison Crowder is a good bet to exceed triple-digit targets from QB Sam Darnold. When last seen, Darnold and TE Chris Herndon flashed solid chemistry, so we’ll need to see how the long break (Herndon essentially missed the entire 2019 season) affects that connection.
Pittsburgh Steelers – The big news out of Pittsburgh is the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger, who should resurrect a deep and talented skill position group. Big Ben is only 38 and is one lost year removed from posting top-3 fantasy QB numbers. His comeback with be wildly beneficial for the entire Steelers’ offense. Pittsburgh’s receiving corps looks pretty set with Juju Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and James Washington at the top of the depth chart. That leaves Ryan Switzer and sizable second-round rookie Chase Claypool competing for WR4 duties. The backfield is more unsettled. James Conner struggled with injuries in 2019 but has shown that he can be a three-down starter when healthy. Because Conner has a checkered injury history, Pittsburgh could easily produce multiple fantasy-relevant backs. Jaylen Samuels snagged 47-of-57 targets as a rookie and is the best bet to maintain that change-of-pace role. Fourth-round Maryland rookie Anthony McFarland could also factor in as a big-play weapon, but will have a hard time moving past Samuels and Benny Snell on the depth chart. At tight end, don’t discount Eric Ebron‘s odds at leading the club in touchdown grabs if he can develop a red-zone rapport with Roethlisberger. Ebron is being widely disregarded in early ADP but offers enough TD upside to be a huge addition.
Tennessee Titans – Re-signing RB Derrick Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill was the most important development for the Titans. With that accomplished, Tennessee returns a playoff squad mostly intact. Jonnu Smith takes over as the starter at tight end and is in a good position to see 4-5 targets per week, giving him an outside shot at contending with TE1 fantasy numbers. WR Corey Davis started to build solid chemistry with Tannehill down the stretch last season. If Davis can build on that momentum, he’s a solid value at his currently deflated price tag. As good as Henry has been as a ball-carrier, the Titans won’t throw many passes his way, so see how rookie RB Darrynton Evans develops in the role vacated by Dion Lewis’s departure.
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