NFC Training Camp Position Battles to Monitor
Scouting and monitoring each NFL team’s depth chart and position battles has become a favorite summer pastime for many football fans. Analyzing these contests can have huge ramifications in fantasy football and really help the well-prepared drafter assemble a championship-contending roster.
Unfortunately, the summer of 2020 is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before and the ongoing pandemic is going to complicate all facets of football preparations. Rookies, in particular, will have a far more difficult time cracking startling lineups without the benefits of organized team activities. With a non-existent preseason schedule, newcomers will have a hard time usurping incumbent veterans and that means a lot of uncertainty for fantasy football drafts.
Now, more than ever, fans that want to succeed in fantasy football will have to put in the work to monitor daily position battles and depth charts. Let’s take a look at the NFC’s key starting lineup competitions that will have an impact on the upcoming 2020 fantasy season.
Arizona Cardinals – The biggest arrival for the Cardinals is superstar WR DeAndre Hopkins, who was acquired in a trade with Houston. Hopkins is versatile but will primarily play on the perimeter opposite of Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald will man the slot. The Cardinals could also explore some four-wide sets with Kirk and Fitzgerald inside, so keep an eye on the battle for WR4 duties. RB Kenyan Drake should open the season with the featured back role with Chase Edmonds and seventh-rounder Eno Benjamin battling for change-of-pace duties. Also keep an eye on tight end, where former New Orleans reserve Dan Arnold could develop into a solid red-zone weapon and only has to beat out uninspiring veteran Maxx Williams, who only saw 18 targets in 2019.
Atlanta Falcons – If you’re looking for a late-round sleeper that is being largely ignored in most fantasy drafts, Russell Gage averaged five reception per week in this offense after he replaced Mohamed Sanu and will open the season as Atlanta’s No. 3 wideouts. That’s going to translate into very favorable situations behind Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. RB Todd Gurley inherits Devonta Freeman’s three-down role, but Gurley looked like a shell of his former self and that could open the door for a solid role for the Falcons’ second running back. Ito Smith snagged 11-of-14 targets last season before being injured and is the favorite for change-of-pace duties. Brian Hill and short-yardage option Qadree Ollison will also compete for a roster spot. At tight end, offseason addition Hayden Hurst has been working out with QB Matt Ryan this offseason and has a real shot at approaching triple-digit targets in a role that led Austin Hooper to back-to-back TE7 fantasy finishes.
Carolina Panthers – It’s a new regime in Carolina, which means plenty of changes are on the horizon. Deservedly, Christian McCaffrey will be the first pick in almost every fantasy draft, but his backup is largely being ignored and would have immediate RB2 value if McCaffrey were to be injured for the first time. Reggie Bonnafon is the favorite to land that gig and is worth a late-round fire as a high-upside hand-cuff. With new QB Teddy Bridgewater and his 6.8 career adjusted yard per attempt average, we should see fewer downfield attempts and safer, underneath throws designed to move the chains and curtail turnovers. This approach should benefit D.J. Moore greatly but doesn’t sound like the best fit for newly-signed Robbie Anderson. Also, TE Ian Thomas started to flash some serious skills during the final month of the 2019 season and now takes over as the starter. He too could see a huge uptick in targets with Bridgewater under center.
Chicago Bears – The biggest battle for the Bears will be at quarterback, where Nick Foles will battle with beleaguered starter Mitchell Trubisky. Foles is probably the favorite and better fantasy option but has only been successful in an RPO system catered to his skills- one which the Bears do not utilize. Whether Chicago sticks with one signal-caller or toggles between two, we should see lesser passing numbers, which will drag down a solid receiving corps. After an abysmal 38/4473 campaign last season, the Packers didn’t even want Jimmy Graham anymore, yet the Bears somehow signed the 33-year-old tight end to a 2-year, $16 million deal. Graham won’t contend for top-10 fantasy numbers in this offense but he’s actually a decent value at his depressed ADP. Carolina also brought in Ted Ginn Jr. to act as a deep threat but there won’t be enough targets to make him anything more than a bottom-of-the-roster flier in deeper leagues.
Dallas Cowboys – While new head coach Mike McCarthy has been dismissive of analytics in the past, apparently he’s changed his mind. Seeing how the already potent Dallas offense evolves will be fascinating. Longtime catch hog Jason Witten is gone and will be replaced by Blake Jarwin, who may already be a better fantasy bet. Per FantasyData’s Advanced Efficiency Metrics, Jarwin averaged 2.37 yard per route last season, seventh-best among all NFL tight ends. Witten’s 1.38 figure ranked 28th. Usage will be the big key for Jarwin’s breakout status, so try to monitor how often he’s on the field and which reserve the Cowboys bring in when they run ’12’ sets. Dallas also has an embarrassment of riches at wide receiver where uber-talented rookie WR CeeDee Lamb joins Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup to form one of the most formidable groups in recent memory. All three of these talented receivers are versatile enough to line up anywhere on the field, so try to keep an eye on how often Lamb is in the slot and who gets the primary play-action looks.
Detroit Lions – Another year, another attempt for Detroit to finally find a running back capable of making a three-down impact. As good as D’Andre Swift was at Georgia, he’ll have a difficult time usurping Kerryon Johnson, who has shown flashes but has major durability concerns. This will be a fascinating backfield to monitor this summer but the most likely scenario is another frustrating committee that will cause both backs to be on the RB3/4 borderline with weekly RB2 potential. QB Matthew Stafford was tremendous last season but was limited to just eight starts after suffering his first significant injury. Detroit’s top-3 wideouts all return intact, which leaves Geronimo Allison, Geremy Davis, and fifth-round rookie Quintez Cephus competing for WR4 duties.
Los Angeles Rams – After releasing Todd Gurley, the Rams will move forward with a running back by committee approach. Sean McVay’s offenses have been good at producing rushing touchdowns so whoever gets a leg up on those valuable short-yardage carries stands to have solid fantasy value. Second-round rookie Cam Akers is the best bet but could cede third-down work to sophomore Darrell Henderson. Malcolm Brown also could factor in, particularly in the red-zone. WR Brandin Cooks was traded once again, which frees up a 100-plus target role in a high octane offense. Josh Reynolds is expected to see a significant increase in playing time and is still largely going undrafted. Second-rounder Van Jefferson was selected with the pick the Rams acquired from Houston for Cooks but could be slow to develop without the benefit of a preseason schedule.
Minnesota Vikings – Superstar RB Dalvin Cook threatened a holdout that puts a damper on his top-5 status. While Cook has little leverage, if his absence bleeds into the regular season, it opens the door for Alexander Mattison to be a top-15 fantasy running back. Mattison actually averaged more yards per carry than Cook as a rookie and also boasted an 8% breakaway rate per FantasyData’s Advanced Efficiency Metrics, which ranked sixth among all NFL running backs. TE Irv Smith logged more snaps than Kyle Rudolph in four of the Vikings’ final five contests. Rudolph had his lowest output in five seasons and appears to firmly be the club’s “Y” tight end, with Smith more of a downfield threat. Justin Jefferson walks right into the starting gig vacated by the trade of Stefon Diggs, making Jefferson a darkhorse pick to lead a talented 2020 rookie wideout class in targets. The Vikings have little depth behind Jefferson and Adam Thielen, so keep an eye on Tajae Sharpe and Bisi Johnson as they battle for WR3 duties.
New Orleans Saints – QB Drew Brees is returning for one final season, which is great news for the New Orleans offense. The Saints’ backfield returns intact with one added wrinkle that could be worth monitoring this summer. Sean Payton excels at getting his players into roles that best take advantage of their skillsets, and has gotten the most out of players like Darren Sproles, Ted Ginn, and Aaron Stecker. Ty Montgomery offers up excellent hands along with the ability to be an effective ball-carrier out of the backfield. Montgomery is just the kind of player that can carve out a weekly role and be effective with 5-10 touches. At wide receiver, Emmanuel Sanders is a big upgrade over Ginn and contend with triple-digit target totals in this offense.
New York Giants – The Eli Manning Era has officially come to an end in New York and the Giants will move forward with promising sophomore signal-caller Daniel Jones under center. Despite struggles with turnovers, Jones was a solid fantasy option as a rookie and is surrounded by a deep and talented group of skill-position talent. While quarterback remains the deepest fantasy position, Jones is certainly on the radar as a potential starter to target in the later rounds. RB Dion Lewis was signed to relieve some of the pressure off of Saquon Barkley in the passing game. Lewis will compete with Wayne Gallman for RB2 duties but is well off the fantasy radar.
Philadelphia Eagles – Miles Sanders has been all the rage this spring and summer but one has to wonder if he’s being drafted at his absolute ceiling. Doug Pederson almost always prefers to get multiple backs involved, and only Jamaal Charles in the 2014 season has eclipsed 200 carries in a Pederson-coached offense. If that trend continues, Boston Scott has major sleeper appeal as a mid-to-late round target. Watch how often the Eagles get Scott or other potential backs involved behind Sanders. Philly’s receiving corps was badly in need of a talent infusion and will be one of the most intriguing position battles to watch this summer. Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson are the veteran starters, but both appear to be dealing at an alarming rate, which necessitated the club to spend three 2020 draft picks on wideouts. Of those, Jalen Reagor has a clear path to a Week 1 starting gig and could be real difference-maker with an accurate quarterback. If Jackson or Jeffery are released, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Greg Ward, John Hightower, and Quez Watkins would be in a battle for playing time. The Eagles will once again be among the league leaders in utilizing ’12’ sets, so watch how Dallas Goedert continues to inch closer and closer to Zach Ertz as the team’s best pass-catcher.
San Francisco 49ers – The defending NFC champions will have plenty of changes to keep track of in August. After tearing it up down the stretch, presumptive lead back Raheem Mostert has requested a trade, which certainly hurts his status as a locked-in RB2. Mostert has no leverage but if his agent pushed the issue, the club could simply choose to give Tevin Coleman more carries. Matt Breida also got 123 totes a year ago, so Jerick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson could also earn a substantial role this summer. At wide receiver, the Niners will be without No. 1 option Deebo Samuel for half the season, which makes this group one of the most wide-open depth charts in fantasy football. No. 25 overall pick Brandon Aiyuk is a good fit as a run-after-catch playmaker in a Kyle Shanahan offense. Jalen Hurd will have a great opportunity to make up for a lost rookie campaign. Kendrick Bourne also stands to benefit from Samuel’s absence. Dante Pettis, Trent Taylor, and Jajuan Jennings will also compete for snaps in a group that is inexperienced but loaded with potential. Shanahan could also simply decide to use more ’12’ sets but even if he does, Ross Dwelley is well off the radar.
Seattle Seahawks – As well as Chris Carson has played, Pete Carroll seems determined to limit Carson’s touches. Carson, of course, hasn’t been the healthiest player but has topped 1,100 rushing yards in back-to-back seasons and just snagged a career-best 37 balls in 2019. With Rashaad Penny (ACL) all but certain to open the season on the PUP list, Carroll signed Carlos Hyde as depth. Hyde is a poor receiver, which makes Carson’s hands all the more valuable. We’ll have to study how many carries Hyde gets and how often Carson stays on the field on third downs. The Seahawks are rumored to be interested in re-signing Josh Gordon once Gordon is reinstated. But behind a stellar 1-2 in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf and newly-signed TE Greg Olsen, there won’t be a lot of targets remaining for Seattle’s third and fourth wide receivers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tampa has a loaded offense and will be one of the most-watched squads this summer. All eyes will be on QB Tom Brady and which players can build the best chemistry with the future Hall-of-Famer. TE Rob Gronkowski is no stranger to Brady and is the odds on favorite to make a big splash in the red-zone, even after a year off. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are locked into their superstar roles. Brady prefers to play it safe with underneath throws and, at 43, no longer has the arm strength to consistently challenge defenders downfield. This should mean an abundance of targets for Godwin. Justin Watson and fifth-round rookie Tyler Johnson will compete for WR3 duties. Tampa’s backfield is more unsettled but it’s Ronald Jones who offers the most potential. Last year, Jones ascended to the starting role in Week 9 and averaged 14 touches per game, while scoring four of his six touchdowns. What makes Jones a potential fantasy RB2 is that he managed to score those six touchdowns despite logging only 20 red-zone carries all season- only four of which came inside the five. With Peyton Barber now in Washington, Jones has double-digit TD upside. Third-rounder Ke’Shawn Vaughn will have a tough time earning a role early with the lack of practice reps. Vaughn was very productive for an overmatched Vanderbilt squad but may take some time to develop. Dare Ogunbowale actually led this backfield in targets (46) and receptions (35) a year ago and is a sneaky bet to retain that James White role in Tampa.
Washington Football Team – Don’t discount Kyle Allen‘s odds at winning the starting quarterback job away from Dwayne Haskins. Haskins tossed as many interceptions as touchdowns as a rookie and had a pedestrian 6.7 yards per attempt figure. Allen, no stranger to picks, has a year of familiarity with new head coach Ron Rivera. Neither option bears a lot of confidence and that uncertainty takes a little luster off of a promising skill-position group. DC’s backfield will be a fascinating group to watch. Derrius Guice has flashed some big-play ability but has missed 84% of his NFL games so far. If Guice can stay healthy, he’s got RB1 potential given Rivera’s history of heavily featuring his starting running backs in his offenses. Adrian Peterson could also factor in, but Peterson is 35, lacks the top-end speed he once had, and won’t offer much in the passing game. Antonio Gibson ran a 4.39 40-yard dash and is listed as a running back. He’s an interesting hybrid athlete whose role is certainly worth monitoring. Washington won’t involve their tight ends much, so it’s probably best to just ignore that group. At wide receiver, however, there’s much better news. Terry McLaurin put up an impressive 58/919/7 line in just 14 games with a haggard offense. McLaurin is a superb route-runner and has all the makings of an elite, alpha wideout. With news of Kelvin Harmon tearing his ACL, rookie Antonio Gandy-Golden could factor in opposite of McLaurin. Slot man Steven Sims is an excellent late-round sleeper is should see a ton of targets.
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