Fantasy Football Opportunity Breakdown
The most important thing in fantasy football is how many fantasy points a player scores. But that’s not the end of the story, not by a long stretch. The peripheral statistics also tell an important story. Looking at things like snaps played, snap share, targets, and target share gives you a more complete picture of a player’s usage during football games. If a player isn’t producing but they are getting snaps and opportunities then your concerns can be tempered because they are still part of the game plan.
Conversely, if they are scoring points, but on minimal usage, you also might want to temper your expectations for them going forward. As a FantasyData subscriber, you have access to a number of tools including, statistics, advanced metrics, and efficiency metrics, to help you navigate the fantasy football map. We now have two weeks of data, which can start to show signs of a pattern and not just a one-week anomaly.
Running Backs
The Los Angeles Rams backfield is one to avoid for now. A week after playing on 82.1% of snaps, Darrell Henderson dropped to a 56.5% snap share this past week. Conversely, Cam Akers saw his snap share increase from 17.9% to 43.5% from Week 1 to Week 2. Henderson’s drop in playing time also resulted in less usage, he fell from a 72.2% share of the rushing work in Week 1 to 38.5% in Week 2 and saw no targets in Week 2. Akers captured 57.7% of the rushing share and saw three targets. Taking a look at the usage inside the 5-yard line doesn’t give much guidance either as Henderson had two attempts to one for Akers. Looking at the tea leaves, we could assume that based on the most recent usage, Akers is working his way back to 70/30 ownership of the backfield.
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The Jaguars faced a positive game script in their shutout of the Colts in Week 2, and that had a direct negative impact on Travis Etienne’s time on the field. Etienne played 36.5% snaps, being targeted three tines with nine rushing attempts for a 24.3% share of the rushing work. James Robinson’s 23 rushing attempts accounted for 61.1% of the Jaguars’ rushing attempts Sunday, and he almost matched Etienne as a receiver with two targets. The early returns on Etienne are not promising. For now, he’s receiving back who is currently the fifth receiving option in the offense. One positive to look to is that through two games the Jaguars have played in mostly neutral or positive game scripts and if that changes Etienne should see additional targets.
The Jets are going to in fact continue to Jet. In Week 2 the Jets doubled down by playing late-round running backs over the running back they moved up for in the second round of the NFL Draft in order to select. I swear I’m not bitter at all. Breece Hall saw his snap share decrease a full 50% from the week prior. Hall played just 19 snaps on 27.1% of offensive plays Sunday vs. Michael Carter who saw a 61.4% snap share this week. As if that wasn’t bad enough the Jets also sprinkled in some Ty Johnson (18.6% snap share), because when you can use a journeyman running back at the expense of your second-round draft pick you have to do it I suppose. Part of the allure of Hall was that he was three down back in college, but the Jets have been reluctant to use him in that role so far, even when facing a negative game script as they were this past week against the Browns. The only saving grace is though Hall isn’t on the field enough he’s being used when he is on the field with a 40/4% utilization rate of the backfield work. Until his snap share increases though Hall is probably best left on your bench as he’s dependent on a touchdown to boost his fantasy scoring.
Entering 2022 there was a good bit of chatter that Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery would cede backfield work and could even be relegated to a dreaded running back by committee. Though two weeks the results on this have been mixed. Jacobs has the fifth highest opportunity share, 79.5%, compared to the 68.5% share he maintained in 2021, while Montgomery has seen his share decreased from 80.0% last season to 71.7% this season. Both players rank in the top eight of opportunity share, as does Najee Harris even though he’s also seen a significant decrease from last year when his 86.4% led all running backs, to a 78.6% opportunity share this year. One player that’s seen a marked increase in his usage is Miles Sanders. His 61.4% opportunity share is 15th in the league, after checking in 30th in the league last year. If he continues to say healthy and sees this type of usage Sanders should be a locked-in RB2 with RB1 upside with any touchdown scoring.
Sample size matters. Through the first two weeks, there are a host of uninspiring running backs that dot the top 15 in yards created including Samaje Perine, Travis Homer, Jerick McKinnon, and Eno Benjamin. I’d be shocked if any, let alone all of these players are still in the top 15 when the season ends. I’d be less surprised and fully expect other players like D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones, Breece Hall, and Saquon Barkley to remain in the top 15 the entire season. I only highlight this to remind you to use a critical mind when looking at any stats and what they mean.
Receiving Options
After doubling up Marquez Valdes-Scantling in targets in Week 1, JuJu Smith-Schuster saw the opposite happen Thursday night. MVS led the Chiefs’ wide receivers with seven targets, and Smith-Schuster saw just three targets, and both receivers now maintain a middling 15.1% target share on the season. The only constant so far for Kansas City is Travis Kelce, through two weeks Kelce has been targeted 16 times for a 21.9% target share, which is elite for a tight end but would be Kelce’s lowest share of the offensive targets since 2016 if it holds over a full season. Skyy Moore is nothing more than a myth at this point with a 1.4% target share so far on the season.
Despite the deserved concerns with Dak Prescott being lost for at least the next month, Ceedee Lamb’s usage through the first two weeks has been elite. Entering the 2022 season Lamb hasn’t exceeded a 20.9% target share for a season.
Hopefully, we all bought low on Ceedee Lamb after last week. 35% target share. Back-to-back weeks with 11 targets. 8th in the league with a 31% target share through 2 weeks. https://t.co/u0OzXbtxtD
— Shane says (@ShaneIsTheWorst) September 19, 2022
While Lamb’s usage has been encouraging it would be nice to see his average target distance increase from the 10.27 yards he’s averaged thus far, ranking 33rd at the wide receiver position.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has quickly established himself as one of the premier target hogs at the wide receiver position. Though some analysts (like myself) pointed to his lack of target competition when he broke out last year due to injuries to D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson, what we should have focused on was his ability to earn targets. After opening the season with back-to-back 12 target performances St. Brown has been targeted at least 10 times in eight straight games, including the final six of 2021, and posts a gaudy 33.8% target share in 2022.
After Miami’s epic comeback against Baltimore, it’s clear that the Dolphins’ passing attack is a two-man attack. Both Jaylen Waddle (29.6%) and Tyreek Hill (30.9%) both sport target shares over 29%, while no one else on the roster exceeds 8.6% (Chase Edmonds). Though Mike Gesicki turned in a 14.1 fantasy point performance keep in mind he did so with just 8% of the Dolphins’ targets this past week and on the season he’s been on 6.2% of pass attempts.
Through one week there were 14 players who had a 30% or greater target share. After two weeks that total has dropped to 12 players, and includes one tight end, Mark Andrews who ranks 8th in league with a 31% target share. In 2021 there were only two tight ends with greater than a 20% target share, Andrews, and Travis Kelce. Through two weeks of the 2022 season, those two are joined by Pat Freiermuth and Tyler Higbee cresting that threshold. Higbee is actually second at the tight end position with a 26.3% share, and his 20 total targets leads all tight ends. Before you get overly excited with Higbee’s targets you should know that he’s only averaging 1.15 fantasy points per target ranks just 22nd at the tight end position.
Anyone that drafted Kyle Pitts is likely growing concerned with his lack of fantasy production through two weeks, which is understandable given that he’s averaging a woeful 7.2 fantasy points per game. Though Pitts has seen his target share decrease a not insignificant 2.3% compared to 2021, he has seen snap share increase from 73.6% last season to a robust 88.2% snap share this year. Hopefully, his increased usage will lead to an increase in targets soon as his 8.3 targets per snap ranks 26th at the position this year. It’s important to keep in mind that with such a small sample size that one week has a drastic impact on seasonal totals, and last week Pitts target share of 12% is dragging down his seasonal total. While we shouldn’t panic we have to acknowledge that targets might be harder to come by for Pitts with rookie Drake London on the roster. London was targeted 7 times in Week 1 and another 12 times in Week 2, and his 33.3% target share is the fourth highest in the league, and the highest among rookie wide receivers.
Little known fact, red-zone targets and red-zone touchdowns can really boost a wide receiver’s fantasy scoring. Three of the top eight wide receivers in fantasy scoring (PPG), Amon-Ra St. Brown, Cooper Kupp, and Christian Kirk also rank in the top seven in red-zone targets and touchdown receptions. If you’re looking for deep plays for your touchdown-only leagues, perhaps Demarcus Robinson, Josh Reynolds, or Mecole Hardman are someone to take a shot on, each is tied for 12th most red-zone targets with three such targets through two weeks. It’s more likely this is a case of small sample size distortion and you can ignore it for fantasy purposes.
Though it’s too early to make any definitive statements, it is important to examine the stats above to determine if we can identify any emerging trends. Whether it’s snap share, usage, targets, or red zone attempts the story of how players will be used in 2022 continues to develop and the outlines of that story are taking shape.
