RB/WR Opportunity Breakdown
The most important thing for fantasy football is obviously how many fantasy points a player scores. But that’s not the end of the story, not by a long stretch. The peripheral statistics also tell an important story. Looking at things like snaps played, snap share, targets, and target share gives you a more complete picture of a player’s usage during football games. If a player isn’t producing but they are getting snaps and opportunities then your concerns can be tempered because they are still part of the game plan. Conversely, if they are scoring points, but on minimal usage, you also might want to temper your expectations for them going forward. As a FantasyData subscriber, you have access to a number of tools including, statistics, advanced metrics, and efficiency metrics, to help you navigate the fantasy football map.
Running Backs
Step 1 of realizing fantasy production is getting on the field. This is especially true at the running back position. Multiple wide receivers can and are on the field at the same time, but there’s usually just one running back on the field at a time.
One of the many surprises of Week 1 was the usage, or lack of usage, of Cam Akers. Akers played on just 12 total snaps (17.9%), while Darrell Henderson played 55 snaps (82.1%). Henderson’s snap share was second highest of the week at the running back position, while his 55 snaps played was third most, and he was one of the few true bell cows this week.
Six running backs had a snap share above 75% in Week 1.
Barkley, McCaffrey, Cook, Fournette, Taylor and Darrell Henderson. Henderson had the 2nd highest snap share for RBs this week with 82.1%.— Shane says (@ShaneIsTheWorst) September 12, 2022
Rex Burkhead was another running back who saw more time on the field than was expected, finishing with the 9th highest snap share, 71.4% while playing on 50 total plays. This summer’s sensation, Dameon Pierce, was limited to just a 28.6% snap share, playing just 20 offensive snaps, which is especially concerning considering the positive game script the Texans had while leading most of Sunday’s game against the Colts. Though Pierce was lightly used as a receiver, with a 2.8% target share, he did see a lot of rushing work relative to his snaps, rushing 11 times on his 20 snaps for a 55% rush/snap percentage. And if coach speak is your thing, head coach Lovie Smith seems to recognize the need to involve Pierce more going forward.
FEED DAMEON PIERCE 🗣 pic.twitter.com/KDXwn8dEf6
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 12, 2022
Though David Montgomery’s Week 1 output, 8.0 fantasy points, was a disappointment, he still out-snapped backup Khalil Herbert by more than a 2/1 margin with 38 snaps played to Herbert’s 17. Montgomery also dominated the workload with a 17 to 9 advantage in rushing attempts, and a 4 to 1 advantage in targets. Montgomery’s 65.5% snap share Sunday did fall significantly below his 2021 average of 74.6% snaps played, and he had no red-zone carries compared to three for Herbert, one of which Herbert converted into a touchdown. If Montgomery continues to be side-lined on goal line carries and remains inefficient between the 20’s it’s going to be near impossible for him to provide anything higher than low-end RB2 production.
A couple of other backfields warrant further attention, Ezekiel Elliott (58%) and Toney Pollard’s (55.1%) snap share was likely to close for comfort for anyone hoping that Elliott might become the unquestioned bell-cow of the offense again. Under normal circumstances, I would be more concerned, but with Dak Prescott out for the next six weeks both Elliott and Pollard should be expected to see the field a lot, not necessarily to the detriment of either.
Atlanta running back Cordarelle Patterson saw a 65.4% snap share on Sunday, but keep in mind Tyler Allgeier was inactive, and Damien Williams who was the starter was injured on his first rushing attempt in the first quarter and unable to return to the game. Patterson certainly capitalized on the increased snaps with 27 opportunities (rushing attempts + targets), 136 total yards, and a touchdown. Patterson met or exceeded Sunday’s snap share just once in 2021, so it’ll be interesting to monitor his snaps next week to see if Sunday is the start of a trend.
Breece Hall’s ascension to lead back in New York has been delayed by Michael Carter. Carter out-snapped Hall 50 to 38 for a 59.5% to 45.2% snap share advantage, on his way to outscoring Hall 17 fantasy points to 10.1 in the rookie’s debut. What’s encouraging for Hall is that his 26.3% target share bested Carter’s 18.2% despite being out-snapped by Carter. When Hall’s snap share increases, and it will, you can see the makings of bell-cow usage.
Just three running backs had at three rushing attempts from within the five-yard line last week, Joe Mixon, Jamaal Williams, and Miles Sanders. It’s just one week, but Sanders only told five such attempts in 12 games last season. I know I was off Sanders for 2022, but if he sees this type of goal-line usage, even if his target share is still lacking, Sanders could be in line for a big season.
In 2021 Miles Sanders had 5 attempts from inside the five-yard line the entire season (12 games).
Sunday he had 3. If Sanders can stay healthy this could be a big season for him. If.— Shane says (@ShaneIsTheWorst) September 13, 2022
All summer long there debates raged about Javonte Williams’s expected usage in 2022. Some fantasy managers were concerned with Melvin Gordon siphoning off work, while others felt Williams would be the unquestioned bell-cow. In 2021 Williams maintained a 51% to 47.5% snap share advantage over Gordon, while their running back work share was even at 44.6% for each player. Through one week, it appears that Williams will see an increase in snaps in 2022, playing on 57.6% of snaps compared to 40.9% for Gordon. Gordon saw a 60% rush share compared to just 35% for Williams. Both players fumbled at the goal-line, but Gordan held a 2/1 edge in goal-line attempts. Williams absolutely dominated in targets with a 29.3% target share on 12 targets, while Gordon saw just two targets. It’s too early to say with any certainty how this backfield will evolve, but I expect Williams to pull away and see close to 65% snap shares by season’s end.
Receiving Options
Week 1 saw some absurd target shares. Davante Adams led the way with a 48.6% target share while A.J. Brown came in just behind him with a 44.8% share. Another four wide receivers saw target shares of at least 35% with Donovan Peoples-Jones being the only surprise among those players. DPJ was easily Jacoby Brissett’s primary target with 11 targets on the day, compared to six for Amari Cooper. Another Brown’s player who had some off-season buzz, David Njoku was barely targeted last Sunday. Despite playing 88% of snaps Njoku was targeted just once, finishing behind fellow tight end Harrison Bryant who had four targets on a 47.5% snap share.
In total last week, 14 players saw a 30% target share or above, which might seem high until you see that 11 players matched or exceeded that percentage in 2021. Though we shouldn’t expect anyone to exceed 35%, let alone 40% target shares over a full season, a 30% target share is hardly unprecedented. DPJ was not the only outlier as a target hog last week, Robbie Anderson saw a 32% target share while his teammate D.J. Moore saw a 24% share. Anderson only saw a 19.1% share in 2021, while Moore saw a 28.3% share, and even with a new quarterback in town this year, it’s hard to fathom that Anderson and Moore’s shares won’t regress to previous levels.
While it’s easy to dismiss Anderson’s target share as a one-week anomaly, the same can’t be said about Christian Kirk. Kirk was the centerpiece of Jacksonville’s offensive makeover, and he dominated targets in his only pre-season contest. That continued last week with 12 targets and a 31.5% target share. Even in a mediocre offense Kirk should produce WR2 numbers if that type of usage continues, and based on the Jaguars’ offensive weapons there’s no reason to believe that Kirk won’t be hyper-targeted all season.
Another revamped offense that had our attention all off-season was the Chiefs. They traded Tyreek Hill to Miami and added JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes Scantling, and drafted Skyy Moore. While Travis Kelce was the target leader with 9l, Smith-Schuster was right behind him with 8 for a 20.5% target share. While that’s not an elite target share, it’s a very good share and it comes in a great offense with should lead back to a bounce-back season for Smith-Schuster. Valdes-Scantling saw just 4 targets and Moore was targeted just once. The offense appears to run through Kelce, Smith-Schuster with Valdes-Scantling, and Moore as secondary options.
Circling back to Tyreek Hill, he was targeted on 38.7% of pass attempts for the Dolphins finishing with the third highest share of the week. Though Jaylen Waddle matched Hill’s fantasy scoring, he was able to secure a bad 16.8% target share. Why does it matter? Well if Waddle sees such a minimal target share all season, without the benefit of a 42-yard touchdown, his fantasy production is going to struggle to match last year’s 15.4 points per game.
If you’re looking for waiver wire adds, or players to at least add to your watch list, Kyle Phillips led the Titans with a 29% target share, and opposite of Kirk, Zay Jones hit a 23% share this week which is an impressive total in a vacuum and even more so considering how much Kirk was targeted. Greg Dortch was the Cardinals’ primary target with a 25% share, while Richie James led the Giants with a 28.6% share. Dortch and James are career journeymen so we should be skeptical that these shares will continue, but if given the choice I’d rather roster Dortch based on nothing else than a shorter track record of failure in the NFL.
Advanced Metrics
Oppurtunity is vital to fantasy success, but so is being efficient with those opportunities. Advanced metrics also paint a more complete picture of what obstacles a player overcame in order to produce. For example, while you may be disappointed in Breece Hall’s 3.8 yards per rushing attempt last week, know that 50% of those runs came against stacked boxes, while Michael Carter saw a stacked box on just 30% of his runs.
James Robinson had a wonderful week, but it should be noted that Travis Etienne was the far more explosive player, which could lead to huge fantasy weeks with any uptick in usage. Etienne created 4.66 yards per attempt compared to just 0.5 for Robinson, and Etienne had a Juke Rate of 33.3% compared to Robinson’s 8.3%.
If you looked at Sunday’s box scores and thought to yourself “Saquon Barkley is back”, you might just be right. Not only did his fantasy scoring indicate such, but so did the advanced metrics. Among running backs with at least six or more carries Sunday his 8.25 yards created per attempt was highest at the position, while his 15 evaded tackles ranked second all the while facing the 10th most stacked boxes on the week.
Ten running backs saw an opportunity share (targets + rushing attempts) of at least 75% last week, with Darrell Henderson’s 85.7% (third highest), being the biggest surprise of the week. Henderson is the lead back in Los Angeles and we need to react accordingly. If you were wondering who the running back to own is in Miami, some clarity was provided Sunday with Chase Edmonds securing 72.7% of backfield opportunities. If Edmonds can stay healthy he could be a low-end RB2 this year.
