RB/WR Opportunity Breakdown For Week 5

Running Backs

Javonte Williams is lost for the remainder of the 2022 season, and possibly part of 2023 as well, after tearing his ACL and damaging his LCL and PCL. The snap judgment would be that Melvin Gordon should pick up a ton of usage, but that wasn’t the case this week. Gordon played on just 18.9% of snaps Sunday while presumptive third-string running back Mike Boone played on 45.3% of snaps. This was likely due to Gordon fumbling and could be disregarded in normal circumstances, but Sunday’s fumble was Gordon’s fourth in four games this year. both backs had three rushing attempts and on one target each. Though Williams leaves a big workload behind, having accounted for 43% of Denver’s rushing work and a 12% share of Denver pass attempts, the backfield is likely to be split between Gordon, Boone and the newly signed Latavius Murray, leaving little clarity on who if anyone is usable week to week. 

Miles Sanders has become a red zone machine. Entering Week 4, Sanders had four attempts inside the red zone, and then saw seven attempts this week, converting two for touchdowns. On the season Sanders now has 11 red zone attempts, compared to 20 for the entire 2021 season, and he already has six attempts with the 10-yard line through four weeks compared to ten attempts in 12 games last season. This increased usage continues as the Eagles get closer to the goal line as well, with Sanders seeing four attempts from within the five-yard line through the first four weeks, compared to five in all of 2021. It’s going to be crucial for Sanders to continue to see this red zone usage and success as he is still ceding rushing work to Jalen Hurts. Even after a season-high 27 rushing attempts against the Jaguars, Sander’s rushing opportunity share is still just 47.1% with Hurts stealing 34.6% of rushing attempts for himself. If Sanders doesn’t score touchdowns, as in Week 2 (11.6 fantasy points), and Week 3 (5.4 fantasy points), his lack of receiving work (7.5% target share), limits his weekly upside. 

The Breece Hall breakout is coming. I keep preaching this to everyone I know, and week after week Hall’s peripherals are looking better and better. 

Breece Hall’s utilization is in RB1 territory, y’all. 😤

Week 4 👀👀👀

66% snaps
65% rush atts
61% route participation
47% 2-min offense
71% long-down distance
100% short yardage
100% inside 5
100% inside 10

Data per PFF 🥇

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 2, 2022

On the season Michael Carter still maintains a 53.6% to 47.4% snap share advantage over Hall, but that lead was built off the first two weeks of the season. Carter saw a season-high 61.4% snap share in Week 2 but has seen his snap share decrease in consecutive weeks, to a season-low 44.3% snap share in Week 4. In Week 2 the Jets not only played Michael Carter, but Hall also lost snaps to Ty Johnson and played a season-low  27.1% snap share. Since then though it’s become the Breece Hall show in New York, with Hall seeing 51.3% of snaps in Week 3 and in Week 4 Hall’s 65.7% snap share was the highest for any Jets running back thus far in 2022. Hall isn’t just dominating snaps he’s also dominating high leverage opportunities as well. Hall leads the Jets with four rushing attempts within the 10-yard line and both of their attempts from within the five, the only Jets running back with any attempts from those areas. Hall is also starting to pull away in targets as he’s out-targeted Carter 27 to 19 (14.9% compared to 10.5%) for the season. Hall has scored 15 fantasy points in back-to-back weeks and there is still room for growth. 

When looking at season-long data it’s important to drill down into the individual games to see what they tell us. The Houston backfield looks close to a timeshare when you see that Dameon Pierce holds a 53.4% snap share advantage over Rex Burkhead who holds a 46.2% share. But it’s not that close. Over the past two weeks, Pierce has pulled away with 59.3% and 68.4% snap shares while Burkhead had just 40.7% share in Week 3, and a season-low 31.6% offensive snaps played last week against the Chargers. For the first time this season Pierce also out-targeted Burkhead (6/5), while also handling every single running back rushing attempt for the Texans last week. 

There aren’t many surprises in the top 20 of opportunity share for running backs, but two players who do jump off the page are Jeff Wilson Jr. and Devin Singletary.

Wilson has benefitted from a lack of competition with the 49ers losing both Elijah Mitchell and Tyrion Davis-Price in the first two weeks of the season and is getting nearly all of the rushing work, and up until last week’s victory of the Rams, a majority of the running back targets as well. His upside is limited due to Deebo Samuel’s continued involvement in the rushing attack, but Wilson is a decent enough flex option week to week until some of the injured 49er running backs make their way back to the field. Devin Singletary is a surprise when you consider the Bills seemingly made every effort in the off-season to phase him out of their attack. First, they attempted to sign J.D. McKissic, and when that failed, they drafted James Cook in the second round of the NFL Draft. Not only is Singletary dominating snaps with a 68.1% snap share compared to 20% for Zack Moss and 12% for James Cook, but he’s also dominating the Buffalo backfield work as well with a 56% opportunity share of the backfield work, and his 22 targets are sixth most at the running back position. On his current pace, Singletary will easily eclipse his career high of 50 targets in a season that he reached the two prior seasons.   

Receiving Options 

After a quiet start to his rookie campaign George Pickens has come alive over the past two weeks. For the season he’s captured a 15.9% target share tied with Chase Claypool for the third-highest target share on the Steelers. But over the past two games, he’s established himself as a go-to receiver for Pittsburgh. His 15 targets over that span are tied with Diontae Johnson for most on the team, while Claypool was targeted just eight times during those two games. Interestingly enough, and perhaps somewhat alarmingly Pickens hasn’t seen his snap share increase, and in fact, it’s dropped since a season-high 84.7% in Week 2, and fell to 70.3% against the Jets. 

And then there were five. There are only five receivers in the league that have captured at least a 30% target share this season. 

Five wide receivers have a target share above 30% on the season. Two of the five are rookies.
Drake London (even after last week)
Cooper Kupp (duh)
Ceedee Lamb (👀)
Chris Olave (oh)
Courtland Sutton (wait, what??)https://t.co/u0OzXbbW53

— Shane says (@ShaneIsTheWorst) October 4, 2022

Of the five the only player I would have bet on doing so before the season would have been Cooper Kupp. It’s only four games, but it’s truly impressive that two rookies, London and Olave, are dominating targets at such a high level at such a young age. It’s not that but both of the rookies stepped into roles where they could have been excused if they didn’t dominate targets. Drake London joined a roster with Kyle Pitts who was able to capture a 20.3% target share as a rookie, and who has a 23.7% target share this year (even if the raw volume is lacking). London’s 40% target share is needed for him to produce in Atlanta’s low-volume offense as his 32 targets rank just 21st overall for wide receivers. The Falcons average 24.5 pass attempts per game and in the last two weeks have only attempted 20 and 19 passes as they’ve leaned on their rushing attack. With Cordarrelle Patterson out for the next four weeks, and the Falcons as prohibitive underdogs the next three weeks, negative game script could lead to more raw volume for London. 

Chris Olave has also been impressive, and perhaps more so considering that he is fighting for targets with Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, two receivers who have dominated targets in the past. With the caveat that Thomas was out with injury last week, Olave has led the Saints in targets in three of four weeks so far this season, and his 25.9% target share dwarfs both Landry (15.1%) and Thomas (15.8%). Olave isn’t just getting empty targets either, even though he has just one touchdown on the season as yet, his four targets inside the red zone also lead the Saints. Olave has quickly established himself as a force in New Orleans. 

Courtland Sutton isn’t just excelling in volume, his 109.25 air yards per game ranks fourth highest in the league. Perhaps not surprisingly Sutton’s air yards dwarf teammate Jerry Jeudy who ranks 42nd with 64.25 per game, what is a bit surprising is that Jeudy ranks just 52nd overall with 25.8 routes run per game, with Sutton running 34.8 routes per game. Sutton is currently ranked 21st in yards per route run (2.46) while Jeudy is pulling up the rear as he ranks 46th (1.77). With Sutton besting Jeudy in raw counting stats, and in the more advanced efficiency metrics there appears to be no contest as to who the WR1 in Denver is.  

Yards per route run is a predictive stat when looking for breakout performers. The top 10 is fairly chalk as it pertains to fantasy production with one exception, Rashod Bateman. Though Bateman’s 11.3 points per game are just 46th for wide receivers his 2.76 yards per route run is 10th. The issue for Bateman is he is in a low-volume passing offense and he’s also the second target in that offense behind Mark Andrews, but if Baltimore does regress to the mean in their passing attack or anything should happen to Andrews Bateman could see some boom weeks. 

Four weeks into the season and trends are starting to emerge, but that doesn’t mean they are static. I’ll continue to take a look at the week-to-week progression in these areas to see what the data is telling us. Thank you for reading.