T.J. Hockenson Fantasy 2023
T.J. Hockenson has had a fairly rough start to his NFL career. In his four NFL seasons he has only played two full seasons – his most productive coming last year when he played 16 games finishing with over 914 yards receiving and six touchdowns. This concern about health goes back to his college days. In two seasons with The University of Iowa Hawkeyes he only played one full season. Yet coming into the 2019 NFL draft he was one of the top TE prospects and a player many analysts had high hopes for, culminating in the Detroit Lions drafting him in the first round of the 2019 draft as the 8th pick overall. For three seasons with the Lions he was anywhere from waiver wire worthy to an every week starter finishing as the TE32, TE5, and TE15 in PPR formats. He seemed destined to remain an extremely talented but frustratingly inconsistent fantasy tight end. Then midway through the 2022 season Hockenson was traded to the Minnesota Vikings along with a 2023 fourth-round draft pick and a conditional 2024 fourth-round draft pick in exchange for a 2023 second-round pick and a 2024 third-round draft pick. In 10 games with the Vikings we finally were exposed to some of the upside Hockenson possesses. As a Viking he had 60 receptions (double what he had with the Lions in seven games), 519 yards, and three touchdowns. This additional production led to him finishing as the TE2, and made fantasy managers excited for the future.
Current ADP
- ADP: #45
- TE ADP: #3
While I certainly understand the excitement surrounding Hockenson, and the reasoning behind making him the third tight end off the board, it does feel a little premature. 10 games is not exactly a huge sample size from which to draw, and yet, even I find myself hard-pressed to think of any tight end not named Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews who possesses as much upside or should find themselves with as many opportunities as Hockenson. The only way for his ADP to go is down. The top two have always been, and will remain Kelce and Andrews, but after that the competition for TE3 is wide open, and Hockenson is as good as any and better than most to take a chance on. If you like to wait on the position or play it safe and take that chance on players that are a bit more proven like Dallas Goedert or Darren Waller, or prefer waiting on younger players with TE1 upside like Kyle Pitts, I can’t blame you. Doing so would mean you can instead focus on either adding more wide receiver or running back depth by drafting Keenan Allen, Calvin Ridley, or Aaron Jones or pivoting to grab your quarterbacks before there’s a tier break by drafting Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, or Justin Fields, all of who are going in the same range as Hockenson.
Fantasy Insight
When Hockenson joined the Vikings ahead of Week 9 no one knew what to expect, but from that week on, Hockenson caught 59 of 86 targets for 519 yards. During this period, the only tight end who surpassed him in targets and receptions was Kelce. Hockenson also ran an average of 33.5 routes per game leading all tight ends. His numbers with the Vikings were solid, but just how solid? If we take his production over that 10 game span and extend it over 17 games he would have hit 146 targets, 102 receptions, and 882 yards. While the per game average was actually higher in Detroit, his usage was higher in Minnesota. Put him in that system for a full season, with no Dalvin Cook, and a head coach in Kevin O’Connell who loves to throw the ball, and it’s not impossible to see Hockenson having a breakout season and surpassing 1000 yards for the first time in his career. There is the possibility that with receivers on the roster like Justin Jefferson, talented rookie Jordan Addison, and K.J. Osborn that there aren’t enough targets to go around, but it’s equally likely that he consistently finds himself as the number two target on the team catching more reception, gaining more yards, and scoring more touchdowns than he ever has before.
Fantasy Value
To be honest, I tend not to draft tight ends as high as Hockenson is going, but it’s still hard to say there isn’t value in doing so. But just know that if you take that route you are passing on some really good players at other positions of need that you will have to account for later in your drafts. But in 2023, there are only a handful of tight ends (maybe even fewer) that have true TE1 upside. Hockenson is one such tight end, although with some caveats. Typically in order to achieve TE1 status, a tight end has to be the top pass catching option on their team. While Hockenson should see more opportunities than he has yet in his career, he will never supplant Jefferson as the top option in the Vikings offense. So with him you hope that the passing volume increases enough to make being the number two option in this offense as valuable as the number one option on another offense. While that’s a big ask, it’s not impossible, and if everything falls right it could happen. However, it’s more likely that the top two remain Kelce and Andrews and everyone else competes for number three, finishing (as is often the case) within two points per game of each other. This makes using a fourth round pick on Hockenson a huge risk, since you can get comparable players 1-3 rounds later.
Dynasty Value
Hockenson has been considered a top 10 dynasty tight end since coming into the league in 2019. He has all the tools to be a difference maker at the position. A position that frustrates fantasy managers everywhere due to the lack of consistency. Throughout most his career Hockenson has been a mediocre tight end. But coming off the best season of his career in 2022, it seems most analysts and enthusiasts are choosing to ignore that fact. Last year he averaged 12.7 fantasy points per game and finished as the TE2. TE2 sounds great in a vacuum, which is why now is the perfect time to sell him. It is unlikely that his value will ever be higher. Those who look at what he did with the Vikings and his overall finish without taking a deeper look at the numbers will be willing to pay a decent price for him, and your team will be all the better for it. To understand this we have to look at how he ended the season as the number two tight end. First, while it’s true he averaged nearly 13 points per game last year, that was largely due to two spike weeks in weeks four and 16. In those weeks he had PPR totals of 39.9 and 35.9, representing 35% of his total points throughout the season. While I often hate playing the “without this game” game, it’s relevant here, because if you take those two games out he drops to a pedestrian 9.2 PPR points per game. He was clearly the TE1 those weeks but the rest of the time, he was just a guy. But let me state here that Hockenson is very good at football. I’m not saying I would sell him because I don’t believe in the player or because it’s a situation I think you have to get out of immediately. He is an elite talent who could easily be the number two option on his team. Last year he demanded a 20.5% target share, and, honestly, that seems like his floor. Even with Jefferson, Addison, and Osborn, Hockenson should demand a ton of targets. And at just 26, having gotten better every year, playing in the best offense he’s ever been a part of, with an entire offseason to get truly integrated into it, Hockenson has no excuse not to be productive. But dynasty trades aren’t always about getting rid of underperforming or aging players. They’re often about reading the landscape and seizing an opportunity. If sell him now you would be pivoting off a player on the fringe of being an elite asset, while moving to a lower tier player who could provide similar production and add an upgrade at another position. That would probably be worth it.
Bold Prediction
Asking him to post Kelce-like numbers feels like a tall order, but if you do find yourself drafting Hockenson (and, especially in redraft I understand the inclination) he should produce for you. I do believe he will finish as a top five TE on his way to 80 receptions, 900 yards, and 7 touchdowns finishing as the TE5
