7 Fantasy Players With Inflated ADP

Fantasy Players With Inflated ADP

Finding value in Fantasy Football is key to success; you need to draft players that will outperform their ADP and avoid players that seem too high for what they can offer. The following seven players, in my opinion, are ones to avoid at their current price.

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Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants

Current ADP: 70

The narrative is nothing new. A formerly great player that had lost some of his appeal in recent years lands in a new spot, and the fantasy community thinks that’s going to fix all the issues of the past couple of seasons. Don’t fall for it. In 2022, Darren Waller had a drop in target share, a trend that was continuing from 2021. Now he finds himself on a team that actually passed less than the Las Vegas Raiders. A team that, by my count, has signed more slot receivers than the rest of the other 31 teams combined. Ok, that may be a bit of an exaggeration, but the idea that a run-heavy team with a ton of mouths to feed will catapult Waller back to fantasy dominance is a bit too optimistic for me. Could he end up being the number one receiving target on this team? Absolutely. Is it possible that on this team that will still leave his owners disappointed? Also, absolutely. Waller will most likely see himself finishing as a TE1, simply due to the landscape at the position, but I’d prefer him closer to the 10-12 range than the 5-7 range he currently finds himself. I would rather draft depth at RB or WR and then wait on one of the younger players who find themselves in high upside situations like Greg Dulchich, or even take a chance much later on a player like Michael Mayer or Dalton Kincaid. We know what we have in Waller. A player with talent whose best days are most likely behind him, so give me the upside and unknowns of any of those players I’ve mentioned over a player like Waller.

Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

Current ADP: 16

Ultimately, how you value Adams depends on your confidence level in Jimmy Garoppolo and coach Josh McDaniels. If you view Garoppolo as a clear upgrade over Derek Carr and you believe McDaniels is the guy to open up this passing game, then your optimism for Adams having another top 5 finish may be higher than mine. In a vacuum, Adams is a clear superstar. Arguably a future Hall-of-Famer. But he is on the wrong side of 30 and is now saddled with a starting QB that historically does not throw many downfield passes. This will lead to far fewer 50/50 balls for the talented wideout. Those were passes that Aaron Rodgers and even Carr were not afraid to throw because they had the arm to do so. But Garoppolo is often risk averse and more of a game manager than a game changer. It is far more likely that we see more of Josh Jacobs (assuming any holdout doesn’t spill into the regular season) than it is that Adams has another 100 reception season. In 2022, Adams had 180 targets and still only had 100 receptions. This target total was actually an increase from his last year with the Packers. With Garoppolo leading the charge I anticipate both the number of targets and receptions to decrease, and if they do, Adams will disappoint in all formats. Fewer receptions, fewer yards, and fewer TDs are not what you’re hoping for when you draft Adams. As it stands, Adams is a top 5 WR in reality, but in the fantasy world drafting him in the top 8 is too rich for my blood.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Current ADP: 9

This is much less about Robinson’s talent and promise and more about where he is currently going in drafts. At this point in time his average draft position is between 8-10 overall depending on format. This makes him the 3rd or 4th running back off the board. Yes, Robinson is considered to be a generational talent. Yes, the Atlanta Falcons need something to spark their offense. Yes, Robinson will be a great running back for years to come. But for a player who has not taken a single snap in an NFL game, taking him at his current ADP means you’re willing to draft him at his ceiling based on the potential he possesses which, in turn, is based on his production in college. But there are a couple of significant question marks surrounding Robinson. First, how good will this passing game be able to be? Will they keep teams honest or will teams stack the box and focus solely on Robinson? Secondly, what exactly will his role be in his first season as a Falcon? Surely they didn’t use a premium pick on Robinson (8th overall) to have him evenly split snaps. But Tyler Allgeier did surpass 1000 yards as a rookie, so it’s hard to see a reality in which he gets stuck in a purely backup role. Cordarelle Patterson is there too. So while I believe in the talent and future of Bijan, at his current ADP there is too much that is unknown for me to draft him. I would much rather choose one of the high end WRs who are going after him like Stefon Diggs or CeeDee Lamb, or a more proven RB like Jonathan Taylor or Nick Chubb at the 8th spot, than risk a 1st round pick on a player with a lot of unknowns, who could easily end up disappointing in his first season in the NFL.

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants

Current ADP: 9

Let me say right off the bat, the inclusion of Barkley on this list should not be seen as a claim that he will be a bust or that he will be a detriment to your fantasy team. As one of the premiere backs left in the league who still has a path to bellcow usage he is a week-in and week-out contributor on any team. But currently, depending on format, Barkley is being selected as anywhere from the RB3 off the board to the RB5. This is simply too high for me. In 2022, by all accounts Barkley had a great season, accounting for over 1600 total yards, catching 57 passes in the process, and scoring 10 times. Yet, even after what could only be seen as a successful season, Barkley still only finished as the RB6.

It’s hard to see a scenario where he repeats that success and surpasses it. He’s a year older and has already dealt with injuries in the past (par for the course at the position.) More than that, there’s a real possibility of a holdout looming. The bottom line is, other than his rookie season, he’s never finished as a top 5 fantasy back. That may seem odd to read, but it doesn’t make it any less true, and with all the current question marks surrounding him, he simply isn’t as sure of a thing as you’re hoping to get from a first-round draft pick. Pass on him and let someone else deal with the headache.

Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Current ADP: 91

At first glance, a 7th-8th round price tag might not seem that high for a player that ended the season as the TE6 in 2022. A closer look at the circumstances that led to that finish makes a person skeptical about drafting Engram at that same ceiling. In 2022, Engram was the perfect safety valve for a developing Trevor Lawrence. A solid pass catcher that Lawrence found early and often, leading to a career high in both receptions and receiving yards. What were those career highs? 73 receptions and 766 yards. On top of that, he only had 4 TDs in 2022, and that was the 2nd highest total of his entire career. The fact that those numbers resulted in a TE6 season tells you just how barren the TE cupboard was in 2022. Still, if Engram found himself in the exact same situation as last year, you may be justified in taking him in the middle rounds. But he doesn’t. Enter Calvin Ridley: someone I am very bullish on this year. Yes, I know there is a ton of risk with Ridley since his last full season was 2020. But if the reports are to be believed, he is impressing in camp and will end up being Lawrence’s go to target in 2023. Those targets are going to have to come from somewhere. Christian Kirk and Zay Jones will also feel the pain of competition for targets, but there is no way the target share for Engram doesn’t go down. I’d rather wait on TE and take a chance on a guy like Dulcich, Pat Freiermuth, or even Kincaid, while loading up with depth at other key positions.

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Current ADP: 35

Admittedly, this one is a little sad for me. I was a huge Kenneth Walker fan in 2022. Coming out of college the talent was never in question. The only question was would he get an opportunity to show that talent in his rookie season. He did, and once he did, he looked every bit the part of a bell cow running back that was going to lead the Seattle Seahawks for years to come. He ran for just over 1000 yards, averaging just under 5 yards a carry, finishing as the RB17 in fantasy as a rookie. By any metric his rookie season could not be called anything but a clear success. Yet, it would seem the Seahawks had other plans, using a 2nd round draft pick on UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet, an electric pass catching back that will undoubtedly cut into Walker’s usage. Those who have either drafted Walker already, or are hoping to, may believe that their skill sets are different enough that both can be valuable to a fantasy team, and there is some truth to that. But the Seahawks didn’t draft someone like Charbonnet to let him watch the game from the bench. They also added first round WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will also have a role. With all these mouths to feed Walker is still going as high as the 13th RB off the board. That’s much too high for me. I would rather target safer bets like Joe Mixon or Aaron Jones, or young players with upside and a clear cut path to bell-cow usage like Cam Akers, Miles Sanders, and J.K. Dobbins (all of who go 1-3 rounds later) than take a chance on Walker before we know how his situation plays out.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns

Current ADP: 87

Watson’s inclusion here isn’t about his talent, the fact that I believe QB9 is too high for him, or even about the personal issues he has had off the field. The truth is every QB except the top 3-4 have huge question marks and how the rest of the field breaks down after those top tier options is anybody’s guess. But Watson hasn’t played a full season since 2020, and in the 6 games he played last year he did not look good. I get it. The Browns added Elijah Moore in the offseason and Tennessee WR Cedric Tillman in the draft. Plus, he’s had an entire offseason to be worked back in and to acclimate himself with the system and the talented roster surrounding him. But there’s a very real possibility that Watson simply is not the same player anymore more. While I understand that determining QBs 5-10 could be a fool’s errand, I don’t understand why four QBs that made it into the top 10 as recently as last year are ranked behind Watson to start the season. These QBs are Cousins (perennially underrated), Jones & Smith (both with additional weapons that should only improve their standing, not hurt it), and Goff (who is shepherding, arguably, one of the best offenses in football.) I would rather have any of those players on my team than Watson. Sure, if Watson hits, then anyone who feels as I do will end up looking like a fool. But if he fails to live up to the hype, those of us who passed on him will be glad we did.