Have you ever found yourself in a fantasy football draft filling up your starting lineup before getting bench depth? It’s not optimal because you are missing out on opportunities to draft high caliber players at other positions. You wouldn’t pay more than what the price tags indicate at your local grocery store. The same concept applies to fantasy football. You should not overvalue a player simply because you need to address that position. It’s important to understand the average draft position or ADP and where certain players are being selected. ADPs are meant to be a guide and not the end all be all. The value is created where you draft specific players. This article will highlight eight players who are bargains and in a good position to outperform their current ADPs.
Aaron Jones
Don’t @ him if you doubt him. @Showtyme_33
Aaron Jones is 1 of 8 running backs in the history of the NFL to have 5.5 yards per carry through their first two seasons (min. 200 rushing attempts). pic.twitter.com/OFedMt4sZD
— FantasyData (@FantasyDataNFL) May 2, 2019
Aaron Jones is being undervalued in fantasy football drafts. He served a two-game suspension without pay for two games for violating the NFL Policy and Program for Substances of Abuse. The suspension resulted from an October 2017 arrest and marijuana-related charge. Jones only averaged nine touches and 57.2 total yards per game in his first four. Over the next eight games, he averaged 15.4 touches and 88.2 total yards per game. Jones benefited from having quarterback Aaron Rodgers under center because 55 percent of his rushing attempts were against light defensive fronts. He was very effective finishing seventh with 1.02 fantasy points per opportunity. New Packers head coach Matt LaFleur called a high percentage of play-action passes along with using screen passes. Coincidentally, Jones has made it a focus this offseason to improve his pass-catching. He gives you RB1 upside in the mid to late second round. I’ve seen Jones go as late as the third round in some fantasy drafts.
Latavius Murray
Saints RB Latavius Murray lines up wide and catches a quick pass from Drew Brees in simulated 2-minute drill. Kamara isn’t practicing today. But still another sign that Murray could be more involved as a pass catcher than we anticipated. Had three catches in first quarter Friday.
— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) August 11, 2019
Regardless of what you think of Latavius Murray as a player, there is no need to overcomplicate his opportunity with the Saints. Mark Ingram averaged 15.2 opportunities in 106 games in New Orleans. Did you know only four other RBs have more rushing touchdowns than Murray’s 25 since his rookie season in 2014? The Kansas City Chiefs (4.6) and the Los Angeles Rams (4.3) were the only teams last season to average more red zone scoring attempts per game than the Saints (4.2). The Saints have historically used a committee under head coach Sean Payton. This trend will continue in 2019 even with Alvin Kamara on the roster considering he only had an opportunity share of 59 percent.
Royce Freeman
According to PFF, Royce Freeman actually had a higher elusiveness rating than Phillip Lindsey last season. Freeman had odds stacked against him from the start many times as he faced 8 men in the box on 36% of his carries, 2nd highest rate in the NFL last year. #DenverBackfield
— Donmegah (@donmegah) August 15, 2019
Don’t allow recency bias to lead you down a path of not drafting Royce Freeman onto your fantasy football team. The third-round draft pick’s season was knocked off course by a high ankle sprain. This provided undrafted free agent Phillip Lindsay to have a breakout season to the tune of 1,278 total yards and 10 touchdowns. Freeman’s 68th percentile college dominator according to Player Profiler suggests he’s destined for NFL greatness. This backfield is shaping up to be a committee and the Broncos have a secret weapon in offensive line coach Mike Munchak. My recommendation is to target the cheap back in the RBBC.
Jarvis Landry
Jarvis Landry has 481 receptions through five seasons.
No other player in NFL history has had more than 426. @God_Son80 🔥 pic.twitter.com/MKc8onOlQV
— NFL (@NFL) June 21, 2019
Jarvis Landry is one wide receiver currently being undervalued at his ADP. The presence of college teammate Odell Beckham terrorizing opposing defenders on the outside will allow Landry to return to his role as a slot receiver after being forced into the No.1 receiver role last season. He was uncharacteristically used down the field as highlighted by his 732 air yards, but did finish ninth in red-zone targets with 19. Landry averaged 7.2 slot fantasy points per game in 2018 and had a success rate of 68.2 percent on contested targets. He averaged nine targets, 6.3 receptions, and 63.2 receiving yards per game from 2014 to 2017. He’ll have a chance to replicate these per game averages and dominate the short and intermediate areas of the field in 2019.
Amari Cooper
It can be misleading looking at Amari Cooper‘s season-long stats. He totaled 53 receptions, 725 receiving yards, and six touchdowns in nine games with the Dallas Cowboys after being traded from the Oakland Raiders. Nearly 74 percent of Cooper’s completions from quarterback Dak Prescott resulted in first downs. He was insanely effective finishing 2018 with the fourth-highest (92.6%) true catch rate among WRs with 70 or more targets. Cooper’s average yards of separation distance from the closest defender back at the moment the pass target arrives was 1.71. This ranked seventh among all WRs and showcases his ability to get open. The offseason provided him time to develop even more rapport with Prescott and master the playbook. Cooper will need to own a target share of greater than 20 percent this season to finish as a WR1 in PPR formats. The Cowboys will provide him with enough opportunities to be successful and also help Prescott improve his deep ball passing. His 33.3 percent completion percentage ranked 20th in the NFL.
Amari Cooper isn’t too concerned about his foot issue. Has had it before and played through it. Mentioned having a 1,000-yard season his rookie year while playing with it. Also dealt with it his sophomore year at Alabama
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) August 20, 2019
Sterling Shepard
It’s obvious that Sterling Shepard is the Giants No. 1 receiver. Beckham was traded to the Browns and Golden Tate has been suspended for four games to start the season. Many will shy away from Shepard because of the quarterback situation. Eli Manning finished 22nd in true passer rating which factors out unpressured throwaways and dropped passes. It’s difficult to find a player at his ADP that is guaranteed to see 100 targets or more. The Giants will still lean heavily on RB Saquon Barkley who finished last season with an opportunity share (The percentage of the total team running back carries plus targets)of 80 percent. The team will have to throw the football eventually and it’s a good chance Shepard will be the recipient. He has experience within the offense, with Manning, and the versatility to line up anywhere on the field.
No yellow jersey for Sterling Shepard (fractured thumb) on Sunday. It’s the next step in his healing process. Just about a lock to be ready for Week 1 vs Cowboys. “We believe so, yeah,” coach Pat Shurmur told reporters. “Absolutely.”
— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) August 18, 2019
Shepard is expected to return from a broken thumb to start the season and is the best fantasy value in what many expect to be an underwhelming passing attack.
Mark Andrews
.@Mandrews_81 is ready for a big second season.
Be there from the start with the home opener Sept. 15.
🎟: https://t.co/yx05UcpEt8 pic.twitter.com/WR8YPTrOt5
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) August 23, 2019
Mark Andrews could finish the 2019 season as the second most targeted players on the Baltimore Ravens. He only averaged 27 receiving yards per game with QB Joe Flacco under center. This number increased to 45 receiving yards per game with Lamar Jackson. Andrews finished 2018 with a hog rate of 13.1 percent while only playing on 35 percent of the offensive snaps. Hog rate represents targets per snap to capture the rate of passing game utilization on a per play basis. The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec reported that Andrews was the Ravens’ “most dangerous and productive offensive player” at training camp. He could realistically see 70 or more targets this season and is free at his current ADP.
Josh Allen
About that Josh Allen deep ball accuracy… #Bills pic.twitter.com/54aTlI5LyA
— Jon Scott (@JonScottTV) August 19, 2019
Josh Allen‘s rookie was filled with highs and lows. He led all QBs in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns per game last season. Allen’s had 65 pass attempts of 20 or more yards in 12 games averaging 10.9 yards per attempt which ranked second among QBs. He ranked 33rd with a true passer rating of 65.4 percent. Allen also accounted for 20 turnovers, throwing 12 interceptions to just 10 TDs and lost eight fumbles. He should benefit from continuity. The Bills retained all of their key coaches and general manager Brandon Beane who traded up to the seventh pick of the 2018 NFL Draft to select Allen. Brian Daboll’s offensive scheme will remain intact. The Bills have also surrounded him with additional offensive weapons in free agency or the draft including John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Devin Singletary. The team has also upgraded its OL with proven talent that has NFL experience. This is important considering Allen had a protection rate of only 76.4 percent which ranked 21st among QBs with a pressured completion percentage of 22.2 percent. He has the potential to outperform his ADP and is an excellent QB2 option in two-QB or Superflex formats.
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