Dameon Pierce Fantasy 2023
Coming out of college, there was not a lot of hype surrounding Dameon Pierce. He only had over 100 carries twice in his collegiate career, and never totaled more than 575 rushing yards or 220 receiving yards in a single season. But with a career average of 5.5 yards per carry and 16 total touchdowns in his final season, the Houston Texans clearly saw something in Pierce they liked, drafting him in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL draft. As the lead back in Houston, the start to his NFL career was a promising one. In his rookie season he finished with over 1100 total yards and five touchdowns in 13 games. His average per carry was down from his time in college with 4.3 yards per carry, but his potential was very much on display and the buzz surrounding him began to grow in real and fantasy circles. But with a new year, new coaching system, new offensive weapons, and new competition for carries it’s hard to predict just what type of year Pierce will have in 2023.
Current ADP
- ADP: #49
- RB ADP: #18
Going 18th at the position and 49th overall puts Pierce right at the beginning of the fifth round in a 12-team league, and solidly in the middle of RB2 territory. As a still relatively unknown player with only one season (and not even a full one at that) under his belt this feels both appropriate and optimistic. Pierce is a talented player, and on a great offense, he could thrive, but he currently plays for the Texans who just added more competition for touches by bringing in Devin Singletary. For him to justify this ADP, he has to finish significantly better than he did in 2022, and with all the new pieces in place that may be a lot to ask. He should have four more games in which to do so, since his rookie season was cut short due to injury, but he also could see a lighter workload per game. Right now he is going ahead of players like Jerry Jeudy, Miles Sanders, D.J. Moore, J.K. Dobbins, and Cam Akers, and just a few picks behind Justin Herbert and Justin Fields. I would rather take one of those QBs with top five upside and then wait and grab any of those other names I mentioned than choose Pierce at his current ADP.
This will forever be a Dameon Pierce fan account. pic.twitter.com/pbLHtL1tyY
— Russell Brown (@RussNFLDraft) August 7, 2023
Fantasy Insight
While there were flashes of upside in 2022, 4.3 yards per carry isn’t going to cut it. Out of all running backs with at least 150 carries Pierce found himself in the bottom third of the league. But that one statistic doesn’t tell the whole story. Pierce ran behind an offensive line that was dead last at generating yards before contact, averaging just 0.8 yards all year. This would make it difficult for any running back to find success, yet Pierce was very adept at finishing off runs with his 2.3 yards after contact. This was a top ten at the position, and among backs with 150 or more carries, it was top five. So Pierce is a powerful runner who runs through people and is extremely difficult to tackle. But you don’t want to have to rely on yards after contact in your top fantasy weapons, but with Pierce you may have to do just that. The Texans are currently the 25th-ranked offensive line by Pro Fantasy Focus. They did add guard Shaq Mason in the offseason which, as one of the best run blockers in football, should help, but it could still prove difficult for Pierce to find much space. Then there’s the addition of Singletary. Singletary is a veteran presence who has already found moderate to good success in the NFL. If Pierce falters, I have no doubt a new coaching staff would be willing to give the veteran a longer look. Even if Pierce does have a solid season, they didn’t bring Singletary in to sit on the bench. He will get work, on early downs and especially in the passing game. Pierce’s contribution in the passing game was already spotty. With Singletary in the mix (a running back who has seen five or more targets in over a quarter of his NFL games) it will be hard for Pierce to have much pass-catching upside. He will retain his touchdown upside, because he is still expected to be the goal line back. As the bigger back who has already proven he can create yards after contact, filling that role makes sense. But the question is how many opportunities to score will this team have in 2023, and will it be enough? No one foresees Singletary coming in and running away with the RB1 job, but he will take enough work away from Pierce that rostering the second-year back could prove frustrating.
Hello! Dameon Pierce.pic.twitter.com/VcQa7Yx2oP
— Derek Brown (aka Ugly John Daigle) (@DBro_FFB) August 7, 2023
Fantasy Value
Finding a lead back that should get 250 carries and has the potential, if not the guarantee, of a high end RB2/low end RB1 in the fifth round should scream good value. For him to justify his draft spot he only needs to finish as a mid level RB2. Easy right? Not so fast. Last year, in 13 games, he finished as the RB27 overall in PPR formats, and even lower in standard formats as the RB29. To believe that with he will finish a full 10 spots higher this year, is to think that the impact of all the other factors surrounding him will be minimal. The Texans’ offense, which was already a bottom offense last year, could actually be worse this year with no Brandin Cooks and a rookie signal caller in C.J. Stroud under center. Then there’s the fact that there doesn’t seem to be a path to expanding his role this year. Most likely he’ll see a decrease in work. If you take his average in those first 13 games and expand it to a 17 game season, you wind up with over 1,400 all-purpose yards, 39 receptions, and seven touchdowns. That gets you to 221 PPR points. Good enough for a RB15 finish in 2022. But if those yards, receptions, and touchdown opportunities go down (a possible scenario) he would be more likely to finish outside the top 25 than inside the top 20. Drafting him at his current ADP means you believe the team will be just as good or better, his role will remain the same or increase, and Singletary’s role will be just to spell him as a change of pace back. That’s a huge leap of faith, and one I’m not sure I’m willing to take.
Dynasty Value
In Dynasty, you probably have to hold Pierce for the moment and hope for a true breakout in 2023. At this point in time, with all the unknowns surrounding him and the team itself, you’re not going to get much for him, so selling him doesn’t seem to be the most shrewd move, unless you can get a couple of rookie picks for him. I would also definitely not buy him unless you truly believe in Pierce the player and can buy very low. The truth is teams have not made a huge investment when they draft a running back in the fourth round, so moving on from if he doesn’t pan out is not difficult to do. From a fantasy perspective, fourth round draft picks do provide some value, but usually for one or two seasons; rarely beyond. There is a long list of fourth round running backs that showed promise only to have one or two RB1 or RB2 seasons and then fade away into obscurity. Players like Tarik Cohen and Marlon Mack come to mind. Sometimes they hit and have multiple successful fantasy seasons, like Lamar Miller, Devonta Freeman, and James White, but they have proven to be the exception, not the rule. Of the 55 RBs that have been selected in round four between the years of 2010 and 2022, seven have recorded at least one top-12 season, and a total of 10 RBs gave us either a top-12 or top-24 season. This means that round four delivered a 12.73% RB1 success rate and a 30.90% overall success rate. So when putting your faith in these players you are banking on the fact that they will be among the third who find success and not the two-thirds who don’t. When you look at Pierce and his situation, you may see that type of player. I’m not sure I do.
Bold Prediction
With a diminished workload on a rebuilding team that is going to struggle to move the ball, let alone put up points, I don’t see Pierce returning value on his draft price. As a strong runner who will keep runs alive by breaking tackles and who will be heavily utilized at the goal line I can understand taking a chance on him. But on a team that could see even fewer scoring opportunities in 2023, still with a bottom of the league offensive line, and more competition for touches taking that chance could prove risky. I fully admit that the opinions surrounding Pierce are varied. Some view the changes in Houston as good for him and that they will provide a path for a top 10 finish at the position. Others view the changes as having a negative impact on his overall opportunities and production. It all rests on whether you think this team will be significantly improved in 2023 or not. In the end, I don’t buy it, but am fully aware I could be eating crow come January. I think Pierce will finish slightly better than last year, having a full 17 game season in which to produce. 1200 total yards, 30 receptions, and six touchdowns, finishing just outside the top 20 at the position.
