Fantasy Football Best Ball Value Picks
When it comes to best ball, winning is all about building a well-balanced roster of sure things, upside, potential sleepers, and value picks. But finding those value picks can often be easier said than done. Value means different things to different people, but when you really break it down it simply means those players that are going later in drafts than they should, and have a real chance to outperform their ADP. Who those players are may differ depending on who you are talking to, but the players below either find themselves in a new situation with new opportunity, are youngsters on the verge of a breakout or are competitors who have struggled through injuries and now finally appear healthy. Every single one of them are worthy of being on a best ball roster and several could develop throughout the season into real game-changers.
David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
Montgomery has seen his stock take a hit in recent weeks after the Lions invested a first-round pick on rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. While I understand the reason behind him falling down on draft boards, there is still a lot of value where Montgomery is concerned. Prior to the selection of Gibbs, fantasy football experts everywhere were picking Montgomery as a 2023 sleeper with breakout potential. I do think the smart money is on Gibbs to finish ahead of Montgomery, especially in PPR, but the sentiment surrounding him has gone too far in the other direction for my taste. The Lions also invested in Montgomery to the tune of a 3-year, $18,000,000 contract. Anyone who thinks Gibbs will take over bell cow duties and make Montgomery irrelevant is fooling themselves. They will both be involved. Gibbs will contribute more in the passing game, but Montgomery will contribute more on early downs, short yardage situations, and those highly coveted goal line carries, similar to the way Jamaal Williams was utilized last year. Williams ended up 8th in half PPR and 13th in full PPR, scoring 15 or more points in half of his games. Give me that any day of the week! This is especially true in best ball where you don’t need him to consistently do well, but on those weeks when he scores 20+ points because he puts in a TD or two you will be glad you have him on your team.
Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams
I get it. An Achilles tear is thought of as the kiss of death for the vast majority of running backs unlucky enough to suffer one, and at first glance, it would appear Akers did nothing to combat that belief in 2021. But he still rushed for nearly 800 yards in an offense that was… struggling, to put it kindly. He also improved throughout the season and was the RB4 over the last few weeks of play. There is a scenario in which this offense once again fails to find its legs, but there’s also another case to be made (and the one I’m making) that Sean McVay, along with a healthy Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, finds a way to turn the team around, and all of a sudden Akers finds himself with a world of opportunities, as the clear RB1 on this team, and trust me, he IS the clear number one. I have a hard time believing a 6th round pick, no matter how talented will be able to supplant him, and Kyren Williams and Sony Michel are nothing but depth. In best ball, the key is to find those gems in the mid to late rounds that, if things break right for them, could be potential game-changing players. The forgotten men. Akers is such a player. He has the potential to end the season as an RB1 and is extremely safe as an RB2, and you’re able to get him in round 5 or 6. Sign me up.
Jahon Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders
With Dotson, it is all about betting on talent. He flashed as a rookie, culminating in a very strong season overall. The issue was that he was on a Commanders team whose offense was average at best. Yes, I know he’s still on the Commanders, but with former Chiefs Offensive Coordinator Eric Bienemy taking the reins, their efficiency should improve, leading to more receptions, yards, and scoring opportunities for the 2nd year receiver who is more likely to have a breakout than be a bust. With his best ball ADP sitting right around the 8th round, at worst you’re getting a solid WR3, but you’re also getting someone with the potential to be a high-end WR2 who finds himself scoring 15+ fantasy points more often than not.
Treylon Burks, TE, Tennessee Titans
To be honest, it’s kind of hard to know the exact value of Treylon Burks. He struggled with injuries his rookie season – a very disappointing turn of events for the first WR off the board in the 2022 draft. But with each new year, comes new opportunities. We already know when on the field, Burks can be very efficient. We also know that without A.J. Brown, Burks is the clear #1 receiving option in this offense, although Chigoziem Okonkwo will also find himself with a chance to breakout. Yes, the Titans are not going to change their identity over night and will remain a run first team, so it’s hard to see an avenue to more than 100 targets for Burks, but that could very well be all he needs to be a high value to your best ball team.
Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Currently, in best ball, Rashod Bateman is going off the board as the WR43. I understand that he wasn’t particularly efficient as a rookie, and that the drama surrounding Lamar Jackson may have put a damper on any position player in this offense. But there was a reason the Ravens felt comfortable moving on from Marquise Brown. This leaves Mark Andrews as Bateman’s only real competition for targets. Yes, Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham, Jr. are around, but one is a rookie and one has not been able to find his footing since a major ACL tear. This leaves Bateman with the opportunity to soak up targets, receptions, and scores. The Ravens will still be in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts, but with Bateman being one of the top two options for Lamar Jackson he should easily outperform his ADP.
Samaje Perine, RB, Denver Broncos
This pick is less about Perine’s talent and largely about the opportunity he will find in front of him, particularly at the beginning half of the season. There were initial reports that Javonte Williams could potentially be ready by the beginning of the season, but that is now being walked back. Even if that were to be the case I have no doubt his workload would be managed. There’s also the very real possibility that he’s never quite the same player at any point during the 2023 season that he appeared to be in 2022. Enter Perine, who already showed he can be successful when taking over for his more talented RB1 in Cincinnati. In two starts for Joe Mixon, Perine had lines of 21-93-1 and 27-155-0. He also had a 20.9% target share and an impressive 5.1 yards per touch, and now seems on track to be the clear starting running back for the Broncos on day one. This success led new head coach, Sean Payton, to personally recruit him on the first day of free agency. He clearly has plans for him. Even when Williams comes back I envision Payton utilizing the skills that Perine provides. Payton loves to use multiple backs so even if Williams comes back and is the same player as last year there will be value in Perine, and yet he is still going in the round 9-10 range. Getting a clear starting RB that late, who will start the season off hot and provide solid production is something every best ball player should salivate over. Go get him.
Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans
I get it, Singletary is leaving one of the most explosive and efficient offenses in the league for a team that, well, isn’t that. But what can’t be overlooked is that this Texans team should improve from last year. Adding Singletary, Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown, and Robert Woods gives them more depth at three very important offensive positions. They continued to improve their team through the 2023 draft with nine picks, which included selecting their QB of the future, C.J. Stroud, and arguably the best player in the entire draft in Alabama’s Will Anderson, Jr. If you believe that Dameon Pierce will be a true bell-cow, leaving little else for Singletary, then you may not believe the value is there for the former Bills RB. I don’t believe this. Adding a running back that has proven to be an effective runner at the NFL level calls into question just how much the team believes in Pierce. At worst, you have a runner who will spell Pierce and take over the pass-catching role in an offense that will run through Stroud and be greatly improved for it. At best you have an RB in a 50/50 split with Pierce, plus pass-catching duties, and who may just be a better RB overall and end up the lead dog. Add to that his late round price tag and you have the very definition of value.
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s quite possible that by the time you read this White’s ADP skyrockets and he fails to provide the same value as he does currently. Until then you need to go out there and draft him in as many best ball leagues as possible. White has actually been a good running back when given the chance. Even with a healthy Leonard Fournette around to take the bulk of the carries, White finished in the top 40 of running backs in half PPR leagues. Now Fournette is gone and Chase Edmonds is his only real competition in the backfield. It’s true that it is impossible to know just how much this team will struggle without the likes of Tom Brady around, but White is the lead back on an NFL team that is going to need him to get going to have much success. His workload will be such that he should have a safe floor and his talent provides that coveted upside you’re always looking for. The fact that he is currently going in the ninth round of drafts as the RB26 off the board makes him an absolute steal. So go get him before that ADP rises.
Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders
I understand that at first glance this pick may feel like a bit of a stretch. But Robinson was pretty solid as a runner last year, averaging 2.4 yards after contact per attempt. He also had the most carries within the 10 yard line of any player to score fewer than three rushing touchdowns. A very specific stat to be sure, but a sign that there should be positive TD regression coming his way. He took on all this as a rookie, after having been shot, and having no real passing game of which to speak. I acknowledge that the Commanders could find themselves in a quarterback wasteland again and that the underrated Antonio Gibson is still with the team. But Robinson showed flashes last year, and the team clearly is not comfortable with making Gibson the lead back in this offense so I would expect Robinson to be going off the board before RB37 in best ball. In the 12 games he played in last year he averaged 17 carries a game, which would project to 290 over an entire season. There are not a lot of those types of guys left in the league. He will have to improve in the passing game to really take that next leap, but if he gets the 250+ touches I expect him to get he should reward those who choose to take a chance on him in later rounds.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
Ferguson was drafted by the Dallas Cowboys in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL draft, so there isn’t a lot of draft capital or a necessarily strong commitment to Ferguson by the organization. He is also largely an unknown quantity having had to play second fiddle to Dalton Schultz all last year. But he did manage to catch 19 of 22 targets last season and score two TDs as a rookie. There is often a big learning curve for young TEs, so why am I optimistic about his potential in 2023? Opportunity. Dalton Schultz is now on the Texans, leaving very little behind Ferguson with whom he’ll have to compete. He is currently going as the 29th TE off the board in best ball. That means in 12 team leagues he’s valued as a TE3. Clearly his ADP has not caught up to his new situation. But when you’re talking about value in fantasy circles you want to target those players that are going too late in drafts and could become weekly contributors. Ferguson checks both of those boxes, and at a position where it’s hard to find consistency, taking a chance on him is a no brainer.
