The Last ADP Look for Fantasy Baseball Drafts
Fantasy Baseball ADP 2020
Wow. The Fantasy baseball season is almost here. It threw many of us for a loop when society went from working and playing to waiting. We watched the beginning of spring training in anxious anticipation of another great baseball season only to have it stopped. Thankfully, it's back and hopefully for all 60 games and a full playoff.
2020 is going to be a strange season if it all goes off without a hitch and I doubt many of us believe that's possible. Here are a few factors I looked at when doing my projections and evaluating who was over and under-appreciated in drafts this season.
Health - Durability is an issue for some players, but with 60 instead of the standard 162 games, I am a little less concerned. Playing 162 games in the field or pitching 180-210 innings is something some players struggle to do. Some ballplayers aren't injury prone as much as they lack durability. Pedro Martinez needed 15-45 days on the disabled list most seasons to avoid breaking down. The grind will still be difficult due to how many games they will play in such a short window of time, but it's only a percentage of the typical grind. In my view, it will be more manageable for players that struggle to stay healthy over a typical season and so I minimized my concerns due to the shortened season. That also means that players that get hurt will hurt Fantasy team managers more because every game means more in a shortened schedule, but that's more difficult to predict.
Schedule - Talent and potential produce, regardless of whether a player's circumstances are easier or more difficult than others. The teams in the American and National League Central have what I consider to be an easier road that is beneficial to batters due to the hitter-friendly parks and weaker pitching staff. I feel teams in the American and National League East are in the opposite circumstance. A fair amount of pitchers parks and a few strong rotations make it a rougher road for some hitters in these divisions against one another. I have a similar opinion of the AL and NL West as I do the AL and NL East.
Here are a few over and under drafted players based on Fantasydata.com's Average Draft Position (ADP) rankings for the 2020 Fantasy baseball season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) Values
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians - 3B (ADP #15)
Ramirez was unstartable during stretches of the 2019 season and still managed to hit 23 home runs and steal 24 bases. His On-base percentage (OBP) and Batting Average (BA) were down significantly compared to recent seasons, which, along with the impression Fantasy team managers were left with from what, at times, was an ugly season, explains his drop in ADP. I prefer to draft players that provide both steals and home runs rather than those that provide high totals in only one, especially early in drafts when the player pool is it's deepest. As good a group of hitters as they are, I don't see an argument for Freddie Freeman (ADP #14) ahead of Ramirez's dual-threat abilities and while I understand the excitement, I can't draft Juan Soto over him either. The same goes for Nolan Arenado. Coors field factor or not, I prefer a player's potential to provide 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases in a full season to one that brings 35 homer pop and nothing on the bases.
Draft decisions in the first two rounds are made mostly based on a Fantasy manager's preference and the way they choose to construct their roster, which makes Ramirez a minor value rather than a steal. But, he is the ninth-best bat in Fantasy right now and deserves to be a Top 10 pick. That's a fairly nice value for a high pick where it isn't so easy to find.
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox - 3B (ADP #21)
I was reminded of how good Devers was in 2019 and a little bit surprised to see 31 HRs and 8 SBs on his stat sheet. I don't like Fenway Park for lefties and with Mookie Betts gone the Red Sox are looking like a potential a cellar-dweller - something I don't love to see in a player because it can impact RBIs and Runs Scored. Even though I am not overly excited about the team's chances on the whole 30+ home runs and a handful of steals in a typical 162 game schedule makes an ADP of #21 a solid value. That handful of stolen bases could mean 2-3 steals rather than 8-10 in the shortened season and therefore is more or less meaningless this season, but his .311 batting average (BA) will mean more with every at-bat having more impact in the BA category.
Devers isn't a steal, but another high-round value. I can see a strong argument for Devers (ADP #21) over Freeman (ADP #14) and on par with Arenado (ADP #11) almost a full round later. I would draft Arenado over Devers because he has a longer track record and the Coors Field effect still means something, especially in head-to-head formats and a nine-week sprint to a Fantasy title, but I can buy into the argument that Devers has another gear still to tap.
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies - OF (ADP #22)
Harper has 40 HR/15-20 SB potential. He hit 35 homers and stole 15 bases in 2019, was likely seen by many as having another "disappointing" season and he is being drafted after Rafael Devers (ADP #21) and Anthony Rendon (ADP #20) as a result. Harper's ADP falls every year because he didn't have a Herculean, MVP season the year before and that's understandable but doesn't make it good drafting strategy by the lemmings. It's also why he is a value at an ADP of #22. Fantasy managers don't see Mike Trouts potential equal anymore and with each "disappointing year," his ADP falls a little further. The fact of the matter is 30 HR and 15 SB is a heck of a season and he is being drafted 22nd. That's value with a load of upside to dream on. He is going to be a league MVP again and with every drop in his ADP I like him more and more and have more and more shares.
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres - SS/3B (ADP #48)
A fair share of games in Coors Field against Rockie's pitching, a bounce-back year in the making and he has dual-position eligibility at shortstop and third base. Machado, like Harper, is a victim of his own potential. He has hit 32 HRs or more in five straight seasons and yet he is seen as a disappointment. What kind of reality is that to exist in? He went from a bandbox in Baltimore to a cavernous pitchers haven in San Diego and once again hit over 30 bombs. Nolan Arenado's full-season home run stats are slightly better but does anyone actually believe that Machado isn't the better pure slugger? Put Machado's performance in Coors Field half the season and tell me he isn't the better player. I am not saying draft Machado over Arenado, but Arenado is being drafted 11th while Machado is being selected 48th. And, he has that pesky dual-position eligibility and shortstop is one of those positions if you need a sweetener. He is one of the more perplexing phenomena in Fantasy baseball.
Average Draft Position (ADP) Over-Drafts
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves - 1B (ADP #14)
Freeman is a great hitter. No arguments there. But, a 1B with only two seasons of more than 30 home runs being selected in the first round of deep leagues and early to mid-second in 10 -12 teamers? I value batting average more in this shortened 60 game season than in more traditional years, but a first baseman who won't steal any bases that has missed games due to injury in two of the last five seasons? I want a more well-rounded, safer contributor this high in the draft. Or, with high-end pitching being more valuable in this shortened season, I would steer towards Walker Buehler (ADP #18) instead of Freeman and grab C.J. Cron to be my 1B in a couple of hours as the draft whines down. Anthony Rendon almost a round later at #20 has a similar profile and could be the better player in 2020 with 3B eligibility.
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox - SS (ADP #28)
Slight overpay. 2019 was a career year and I expect Bogaerts to be one of the bigger regression candidates in 2020. I don't project Bogaerts to steal many if any bases in 2020, I project fewer than a 30 home run type season in the shortened 60 game sprint in pitcher-friendly environments against some high-end caliber pitchers. I also expect his batting average to regress to his norm, which is still good, but in the mid .280's, not .309 like 2019. There are other more well-rounded contributors being drafted later and while being a shortstop adds some positional value, it's less true now than a decade ago and there are good shortstops available later who could match or exceed Bogaerts in 2020 if he regresses. Fantasy team managers can draft a better overall player in the #28 range and still capably fill the SS spot later with players like Tim Anderson (ADP #87), Carlos Correa (ADP #92), Gleyber Torres (ADP #34) or Corey Seager (ADP #117).
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros - DH/OF (ADP #30)
A .318 batting average and 27 home runs in only 87 games in 2019. Alvarez looks like a legit hitter and a monster slugger all in one, but he doesn't run and he qualifies as that rare Fantasy unicorn - a DH - in many leagues (10 games at OF in 2019). Alvarez will bat in a really good lineup, could easily have another level to his game and when you see how good he is at making contact I see the excitement. But, the players after him are safer and contribute more. Pete Alonso (ADP #33) and George Springer (ADP #37) should hit more homers while GleyberTorres (ADP #34), Jose Altuve (ADP #32) and Ozzie Albies (ADP #35) provide the dual-category contributions that I like to see. And, Fantasy team managers don't have to use a Top 10 pick to get them at this stage in the draft. /Anthony Rizzo is a similar player at #42 as is Nelson Cruz at #46. I prefer the upside of Alvarez to both Rizzo and Cruz, especially Cruz who has to decline eventually, but I would rather than select an alternative in the late 20's and early 30's and "settle" for Rizzo. Alvarez has huge potential and 2020 could be his breakout year and by breakout, I mean 45 HR type of 60-game pace breakout, but I am not ready to pay for the risk. #30 is a reach.
Later Round Values - ADP Bargains
All of the players I profiled so far have been Top 50 picks and most of them are being only slightly over-drafted or are slight values. Now, I want to target a few later round picks who are better values and who have a more significant chance of being the difference-maker in 2020 Fantasy baseball championships.
Victor Robles, Washington Nationals - OF (ADP #75)
He has the dual-threat type of athleticism that profiles to be a 30/30 star in a 162 game regular season and he is being selected alongside D.J. LeMahieu (ADP #70) Marcell Ozuna (ADP #71), J.T. Realmuto (ADP #76) and Matt Chapman at #81. Chapman and Ozuna don't have anything close to the upside or ceiling and they are regression candidates while Robles is a breakout one. LeMahieu is a guaranteed regression who could become a platoon player by the time September and the Fantasy playoffs roll around. As far as Realmuto is concerned, I would never draft a catcher this high with the potential exception of Gary Sanchez and only if I felt like he would play at least 30% of his games at DH. Robles has way too much talent to be selected in the mid 70's in the same neighborhood as a bad hair band or old Apple desktop type player. Starling Marte and his ADP of #24 is the type of player Robles should be compared to and drafted like and he is currently being selected at half the price, twice as late. One of the best values in the Top 100.
Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins - SP (ADP #86)
Berrios is one of a dying breed - A pitcher with 200 Strikeout potential (in a 162 season). Berrios plays for a potential World Series contender in a pitcher-friendly park with more than their fair share of soft opponents on the schedule and he is currently the 21st pitcher selected. That's what is crazy to me. Not that his ADP is #86. There are a lot of good hitters and draft strategy dictates Fantasy team managers lean offense, so #86 is plausible while still good value. But Berrios is only the 21st best pitcher in Fantasy baseball? Come on. Three seasons of a 3.89 ERA and 1.23 WHIP or lower, back-to-back 195, and 202 strikeout seasons, and he has never had health issues. He is being selected after Lucas Giolito (ADP #63), Yu Darvish (ADP #64), and Tyler Glasnow (ADP#84).
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros - SS (ADP #92)
Like Machado and Harper, Correa is a victim of his own expectations and a big part of the explanation is health. He hasn't played a full season since 2016 and that is the only one of his entire career. In a shortened season his inability to be durable won't be as big a deficiency because he won't have to get that car across a 162-mile marathon. He just has to make it through 55-60, hit 10-13 home runs and then the wheels can fall off with Fantasy team managers' gratitude and appreciation. I think he does it. I project he hits more home runs than Xander Bogaerts and while he won't steal many bases, he could hit his way to being a Top 10 shortstop with an ADP almost outside the Top 100. That's value.
Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres - SP (ADP #130)
I am laser-focused on pitching at this stage in the draft because I love these later round arms with upside. Lamet can be a 200K, strikeout per inning+ guy. The parks he will pitch in are pitcher-friendly for the most part and there is his fair share of gettable lineups on the schedule as well. He has risk due to his injury history but the upside is too exciting with an ADP of #130.
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks - SP (ADP #132)
I love Gallen's potential. He is one of my breakout stars for 2020. He strikes out more than a batter per inning and had an ERA of 2.81 with a WHIP of 1.23 in his first major league experience as a starter. He is unrealized, unproven, and totally underappreciated and he is being selected at #132nd overall as the 37th best SP in Fantasy. He profiles as the type of pitcher that wins leagues and must be owned in Dynasty formats now before it's too late.
Joe Musgrove, Pittsburgh Pirates - SP (ADP #183)
The stuff can be filthy, his breaking ball can be unhittable and he is being drafted in the 19th round of 10 team leagues. He is a bench SP at that ADP with the potential to be a #2 or #3 for a Fantasy rotation. I would not be surprised if he is better than Tyler Glasnow in 2020 and he is being selected almost exactly 100 picks later. You could draft Giovanny Gallegos (ADP #180), JD Davis (ADP #181), or Keone Kela (ADP #182) instead if you like.
James Paxton, New York Yankees - SP (ADP #189)
A lot like Berrios only less appreciated and MUCH higher upside. Paxton has ace stuff on his best days and he falls this far due to his expansive injury history. Well, in 2020, he only has to make it through 60 games, and 10-12 starts? A team that's going to win plenty of games with a friendly schedule and in some friendly pitchers parks. Paxton has huge upside and the raw "stuff" to be an impact SP if he can get on a roll which he has done from time to time in small doses in the past. His ADP makes me salivate with upside excitement.
Players To Avoid - Regression Candidates
Jonathan Villar, Miami Marlins - 2B/SS (ADP #59)
I loved Villar in 2019. Started him ahead of Javier Baez for all of August and September, but a 24 home run, 40 SB type of pace in 2020? No chance. Add that he will be hitting half his swings in Miami. If he hits five home runs I would be shocked. Still like the skill set and the player but regression is nit a risk, it's a guarantee.
Tommy Pham, San Diego Padres - OF (ADP #65)
A lot like Villar, I loved Pham in 2019 and I like the overall skill set he brings to the park every day. He has hit 20+ home runs and stole 25, 15, and 25 bases respectively the last three seasons, but I don't see that kind of pace this year in San Diego. I hate the park he plays in and the crowded lineup he is a part of. Regression is very likely and it's sad because if he played in a Baltimore or Philadelphia he could be really, really good yet again.
D.J. LeMahieu, New York Yankees - 1B/2B/3B (ADP #70)
26 home runs in 2019. Never happen again. If he hits eight home runs in the shortened season I would consider it a shocker. I like the batting ability but I don't pay this kind of price for batting average. He can hit .400 and I still pass inside the Top #75
You can follow me on Twitter @CJMItch73 and on Facebook in the Group "A Podcast To Be Named Later."
Chris Mitchell
Chris Mitchell began his Fantasy Sports Writing/Podcasting career with RotoExperts.com, writing about Minor League Prospects, Fantasy Football and Baseball. He won a 2017 FSWA award for "Best Comedy Article" and was Nominated for "Best Fantasy Podcast” in 2018. He has worked as a freelance writer and season-long contributor to BaseballAmerica.com and as a Daily Fantasy Sports analyst for Fantasydraft.com. His content has appeared in a multiple of outlets like The AP, The New York Daily Post, USAToday, Fantrax.com and more. He is President of Bosco Nation, where his Podcasts can be found BlogTalkRadio