NFL Free Agents with Fantasy Football Value
Each offseason we see big deals made through NFL free agency where a player’s fantasy value is dramatically changed overnight based on his new team. Sometimes it’s an upgrade; sometimes it’s not. The following is a breakdown of some of the top NFL players available in free agency for 2019 and where they could potentially land. As we’ve seen in the past, the landing spot of many top free agents can make or break a players Fantasy Football value.
Quick Note: This is not a complete list of all free agents, rather a look at the ones who have more value from a fantasy perspective. The 2019 free agency period is set to open on March 13th at 4:00 pm EST according to NFL Operations. Clubs are also permitted to designate Franchise Tags or Transition Players as early as February 19th. Contract terms and information was found thanks to both Spotrac.com and OverTheCap.com. Both are an excellent reference if you’re looking to research your favorite team’s contract situations.
Quarterback
With an expected weak rookie draft class at the QB position and few inspiring options via free agency, we shouldn’t see too much shakeup during the offseason. The biggest offseason storylines for QB will revolve around players who are in contracts but likely on the move, such as Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, and Blake Bortles to name a few. Here’s a list of teams who need help at the position this offseason to give an idea of where some of these guys might land and the players available:
NEED: Dolphins, Jaguars, Broncos, Raiders, Giants, Redskins
Tyrod Taylor
Teddy Bridgewater
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Bridgewater start in a meaningful game. He got the nod in Week 17 for the Saints which was his first official start since 2015, but that showing didn’t do much to help his case on the free agent market. Bridgewater finished the game completing 14-of-22 passes for 118 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Bridgewater played well in the preseason of 2018 as a second stringer for the Jets, which prompted his trade to New Orleans. He was also selected to the Pro-Bowl in 2015 when he led the Vikings to a playoff appearance. There should be some interest in Bridgewater’s services as a potential starter for a QB needy team. If he can stay healthy, he will offer matchup-based streaming value at worst.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
It was a wild ride in 2018 for the man they call “Fitzmagic.” Now set to be a free agent heading into the 2019 season, Fitzpatrick is one of the more intriguing free agent options to watch. The downside here from a fantasy perspective at least is that teams know what they’re getting with Fitzpatrick. He can sling it with the best of them but his turnovers are incredibly costly and his career QB record of 50-75-1 doesn’t inspire a lot of hope. There could be room for him to plug in somewhere as a bridge player, like the Redskins for instance. Another potential situation for Fitzpatrick would be a backup role to a QB who has struggled to stay healthy, like Marcus Mariota, which could offer some fantasy relevance eventually.
Honorable Mentions: Josh McCown, Robert Griffin III, Trevor Siemian, Geno Smith
Running Back
The biggest story of the offseason at the running back position will naturally revolve around who wins the Le’Veon Bell sweepstakes. While Bell continues to attempt to reset the market for the RB position, he will have some moderate competition for talent around him in the free agent pool. The rookie draft class at the moment looks about average or maybe slightly below average based on the amazing breakouts we have seen from the position lately. Here’s a list of teams expected to need help at RB this offseason and the players available:
NEED: Bills, Jets, Chiefs, Raiders, Eagles, Falcons, Buccaneers, Saints
Le’Veon Bell
As mentioned above, this is the story to watch. Bell is set to make a statement by setting the market at an unprecedented level for running backs. The problem here is that it just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for teams to dump so much money into a player like Bell. Sure, he offers an elite skill set for his position, but as we have seen time and time again with him, whoever stepped in his place with the Steelers generally had tremendous success as well. In Bell’s case specifically, you are also dealing with a player who has proved toxic for a locker room with his selfishness and egotistical attitude. Suspension and injuries have also littered his career. In fact, a big concern I had with Bell was the potential for injury based on how long he has missed the action on the field and his injury history. I reached out to injury and rehabilitation specialist and creator of Fantasy Football Unlimited, Dr. Kevin J. Murray, to get his thoughts on Bell’s potential for injury and this is what he had to say,
“No significant sample size of players actually taking a year off that doesn’t involve extensive rehabilitation from an injury. Conditioning will be a concern when it comes to being in “Football shape” having not played. His own injury history is just another variable as well.” Dr. Murray went on to note, “From a fantasy redraft standpoint, by late August we should know (to a relative degree) if there are any specific issues to be concerned about that would put him in a separate category than that of most RBs where injury frequency can be pretty random. Injury risk & the randomness of any given injury is very difficult to predict especially without being close enough to the athlete to know their true status & conditioning. From a fantasy standpoint it’s a roll of the dice. Look at AP rushing for 2,000 yards in year 1 post ACL.”
Some excellent insight from the good doctor here. First things first, we need to see where exactly Bell lands. Both the Jets and Colts have been pegged as potential suitors. The Colts have all the cap space in the world with over $111 million available for 2019 alone, but they got decent production out of Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines in 2018, though Mack did struggle to stay healthy all season. Running back just isn’t a glaring need for them at the moment. It seems like Bell will go wherever the money will take him. Once we find his new home, a healthy training camp will obviously be a big next step in him regaining the confidence of fantasy owners. Way too early mock drafts have Bell going as a late first-round draft pick at the moment.
Mark Ingram
After eight seasons and two Pro Bowl selections, Mark Ingram may be on to greener pastures. Outside of Le’Veon Bell, Ingram is the most attractive running back on the free agent market. Ingram offers plus versatility with a three-down skill set that could fill the needs for anyone looking for a lead back. Ingram has mentioned that he would actually like to stay in New Orleans, after all, he does hold the team record for most rushing TDs. It has always seemed that coach Sean Payton and Ingram never quite saw eye-to-eye though making it tough to predict him staying in town. The Buccaneers are an attractive landing spot if Ingram does, in fact, leave NOLA. With Bruce Arians taking over there, Ingram could be used similarly to how we saw Arians use David Johnson not that long ago in Arizona.
Latavius Murray
Murray has been a grinder for the Vikings over the last few years, especially in goal-line situations. Heading into his age 29 season, Murray is hitting that point where we generally see a significant drop off in running back production. Murray has never been the most versatile of running backs through his career but offers a punishing style as a straight-line runner. He could provide value to a team like the Eagles who have preferred to run heavy RBBC setups. I wouldn’t rule out a possible return to either the Vikings or the Raiders for Murray either.
Marshawn Lynch
It is unknown at this point if Lynch is planning on playing in 2019. His contract is up with the Raiders, though coach Jon Gruden has mentioned he “would love” a Beastmode reunion.
From our @nflnetwork Senior Bowl preshow: Jon Gruden says he’d welcome Marshawn Lynch back to the #Raiders. Lynch’s agent Doug Hendrickson says he’ll huddle with his client soon to lay out a plan for 2019. pic.twitter.com/UPkvlQ2kYh
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) January 22, 2019
Lynch showed he still had a little gas left in the tank to start the season in 2018, but that didn’t last long as he was out for the season by Week 7. The Raiders have needs at basically every position right now as they’re in the process of a complete rebuild. As far as their running backs go, veteran Doug Martin is also set to be a free agent this season and passing-down specialist, Jalen Richard, will be a restricted free agent. The team also has Chris Warren III on the back burner after he served all of his rookie
Spencer Ware
As soon as news broke of Kareem Hunt being cut from the Chiefs, Spencer Ware seemed like a lock for RB1 status for the rest of the season. That didn’t quite pan out as Ware struggled to stay healthy and Damien Williams broke out in the meantime. Now set to hit the free agent market, Ware will be an interesting player to watch where he lands. He handled lead duties fairly well for the Chiefs in 2016 but went on to miss the entire 2017 season. Ware has low miles with only 340 career carries to his name and could be a valuable piece to an RBBC.
Adrian Peterson
Peterson mentioned during the preseason that he was going to prove his doubters wrong in 2018 and he did just that. Peterson handled an impressive 251 carries for 1,042 yards (4.2 YPA) with seven TDs. This was a one-and-done deal as A.P. was brought in to take the place of the injured rookie, Derrius Guice. Now back on the prowl, Peterson is likely someone we won’t find out the fate of until well into the preseason. I would expect him to hold out again until an opportunity presents itself for him to be the lead back once again. A.P. doesn’t share backfields, as the Saints found out the hard way.
Tevin Coleman
Coleman was one of the more hyped players headed into a contract year before the 2018 season. Devonta Freeman missed most of the 2018 season which catapulted Coleman into a prime spot to audition for a big payday, but his role didn’t actually wind up growing into that of a lead back. Coleman still set a career high with 199 touches while averaging an impressive 4.8 YPA, but the touch total wasn’t much more than the 183 he saw in 2017. Coleman is still rather fresh in the middle of his prime years for a running back.
C.J. Anderson
After not playing a role on any team through the regular season, C.J. Anderson has come to life for the Rams in the playoffs. Anderson has averaged 20 touches per game this postseason leading up to the Super Bowl, often in place of the mysteriously absent and likely injured, Todd Gurley. Anderson didn’t garner too much interest last year during the offseason and wound up falling out of favor with both the Raiders and Panthers in 2018. The biggest storyline here to watch will revolve around the Rams resigning Anderson for the 2019 season which would cause pandemonium for Gurley owners.
Jay Ajayi
Another year in the books and another season where Jay Ajayi missed significant time with injuries. It’s unfortunate since Ajayi has shown the ability to be a productive lead back when healthy. Those times are just too few and far between lately. It seems highly unlikely the Eagles resign Ajayi at this juncture with much more attractive options available via free agency. Ajayi will have a hard time justifying the opportunity to be a trusted starter on any offense in 2019 despite being only 25 years old. A one year “prove it” deal may be his best bet.
Alex Collins (Restricted Free Agent)
After a breakout 2017 season that saw Collins accumulate 1,160 yards from scrimmage, he took a back seat to pretty much everyone as the 2018 season wore on. Collins still managed to lead the Ravens with seven rushing TDs, but he lost significant work to Gus Edwards, Lamar Jackson and Kenneth Dixon towards the end of the year. Collins has been playing on cheap exclusive rights deals with the Ravens over the last two seasons where he has only earned a total salary of roughly $1.1 million. He will be entering his fourth season in the league and will have just turned 25 when the 2019 season kicks off which gives him time to still breakout further and prove himself a capable starter in the league. First, he will need a better playing situation to shake out.
Honorable RB Mentions: Bilal Powell, LeGarrette Blount, Corey Grant, T.J. Yeldon, Doug Martin, Darren Sproles, Frank Gore, Ameer Abdullah, Ty Montgomery, Javorius Allen, Peyton Barber (RFA)
Wide Receiver
The 2019 rookie draft class looks to have some pretty exceptional talent coming in at WR. The free agent pool, however, is another story. There is a lot more complementary talent amongst the available WRs at the moment who fit best either as a slot man or occasional deep threat, but no one who stands out as a potential WR1. Here’s a list of teams looking to add some depth at WR this offseason and the players available:
NEED: Patriots, Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, Colts, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders, Broncos, Redskins, Cowboys, Packers, 49ers, Seahawks
Golden Tate
Tate’s final year of his most recent contract took an interesting turn as he was dealt
My favorite landing spot for Tate would be with the Packers. Randall Cobb is also a free agent and Tate would be an upgrade in that same role as a WR2 and he would keep his 90+ reception upside, though the Packers have been linked to Cole Beasley early in the market. Tate will secure a solid role somewhere and shouldn’t have too hard of a time getting that 3-year, $30 million dollar deal. He’ll continue to be an upside WR2 with added value in PPR formats.
Randall Cobb
Cobb cashed in on a big-time $40 million dollar contract in 2015 after posting a career-best 91/1,287/12 line in 2014. He didn’t quite live up to it unfortunately as he underwhelmed each season after while also struggling to stay on the field. Cobb is heading into his age 29
Cole Beasley
Beasley is another slot man who is set to be a free agent to start the 2019 season. While he is not a lock to leave the Cowboys organization, he has already drawn interest from the Packers. Beasley presents a decent value as he probably won’t be nearly as costly as Golden Tate. Beasley has always been more of a solid real-life contributor rather than a factor in fantasy, but a friendly landing spot like the Packers would thrust him into serious consideration as a WR3 or Flex option with 1,000-yard upside.
John Brown
Brown was one-and-done in Baltimore as the speedy wideout finished with his most receptions and yards since his 2015 breakout campaign. What was most important for Brown this season was proving that he could play a full 16-game season and he did just that. There wasn’t much opportunity for work in the passing game with the Ravens offering one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. Brown proved he still had what it takes to get behind defenders though and could be a solid deep threat elsewhere. The Buccaneers provide an obviously attractive landing spot as Brown would reunite with former coach, Bruce Arians. The Bucs could potentially lose Adam Humphries to free agency and DeSean Jackson sounds like he is on the outs as well. Brown would easily fill that DJax role.
Chris Hogan
There was some belief that Hogan would be a prototypical WR1 in 2018 with the Patriots, but that never quite panned out. Hogan provided an average season from what we have come to know from him as an occasional deep threat and target in the end zone. With talk of Tom Brady being a lock to play again in 2019, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Hogan take a team friendly deal to try and stick with the Pats until their reign is over. If Hogan were to test the free agent market, however, he would be competing with guys like Tyrell Williams and maybe Devin Funchess for a job. If Rob Gronkowski decides to call it quits in 2019, the Chris Hogan hype train could build some steam once again, but I won’t be buying a ticket.
Tyrell Williams
Williams broke out for 1,059 yards and seven touchdowns back in 2016 but hasn’t been heard from much since. As second-year talent Mike Williams took a step forward in 2018, Tyrell took a slight step back. With tight end Hunter Henry also set to return in 2019 as a full-time player, Tyrell Williams would likely be able to carve out a bigger role elsewhere. Williams will be a cost-efficient deep threat who has the ability to make a big impact with limited opportunities. The Browns and Colts provide interesting landing spots for Williams where he would have a chance to fight for WR2 duties.
Devin Funchess
Funchess has had a decent run in Carolina after the Panthers selected him in the second round of the 2015 NFL draft. Funchess was the team’s leading receiver during their 2017 season when they made a run to the wild-card game. In 2018 Funchess found himself outplayed by rookie D.J. Moore and fell to third on the team in receiving behind Moore and team leader, Christian McCaffrey. While the Panthers do have a wealth of young talent at the WR position, resigning Funchess could be in the best interest for both parties. Moore and Curtis Samuel both fit in as smaller wideouts who are better options as possession receivers in the short-to-intermediate passing game whereas Funchess offers prototypical WR1 size at 6’4″ and 232 lbs. If Funchess does indeed decide to test the market, his value will be heavily dependent on his landing spot as he hasn’t really shown the standout capabilities of a player who can be a difference maker anywhere he goes.
Robby Anderson (Restricted Free Agent)
Anderson is hoping for a contract extension with the Jets after being the team’s leading receiver each of the last two seasons. Anderson has provided the Jets an amazing value coming off his recent three-year, $1.6 million dollar deal. Spotrac has a predicted market value of four years and $47 million for Anderson. The Jets currently have the second most cap space available for 2019 with $96 million available, making it likely a deal gets done to keep Anderson in town. Anderson’s occasional off the field issues could throw a wrench into his bargaining power. With Jermaine Kearse also a free agent this offseason, Anderson could be playing alongside some younger, inexperienced talent in 2019.
Honorable Mentions: Donte Moncrief, Jermaine Kearse, Cordarrelle Patterson, Mike Wallace, Adam Humphries, Phillip Dorsett, Martavis Bryant, Dez Bryant, Kelvin Benjamin, Josh Gordon (RFA), Geronimo Allison (RFA)
Tight End
There are rave reviews about how deep the incoming rookie class of tight ends is. We saw even recently at the Senior Bowl some of the lesser known college prospects like Dax Raymond stand out with potential NFL starter skills. There should be loads of teams going young at the position this season as the free agent pool is almost as desperate at tight end as the fantasy football waiver wire was in 2018. Here’s a list of teams looking to add depth at TE and the free agents available:
Need: Patriots, Bills, Bengals, Texans, Titans, Jaguars, Broncos, Raiders, Redskins, Cowboys, Packers, Lions, Saints, Seahawks, Cardinals
Tyler Eifert
Eifert provides possibly the most upside amongst the limited players available in free agency in 2019 but that doesn’t come without loads of injury concern. When healthy, Eifert has produced like a borderline top-five option at TE. Unfortunately, he’s only played more than eight games in a season twice in his six years in the league. Someone will probably take a shot with Eifert on a dirt cheap one-year deal with nothing to lose. The Bengals likely won’t be that someone though as they will likely completely overhaul the tight end position in 2019 with both Tyler Kroft and C.J. Uzomah also headed for free agency. There are a lot of variables at play here before we can have any idea what to expect out of Eifert in 2019.
Jared Cook
Cook randomly broke out in his 10th season in the NFL with the Raiders in 2018 posting career bests across the board. He finished as the overall TE5 in half PPR leagues. Cook just finished up a two-year, $10.6 million dollar deal with the Raiders and despite their rebuilding ways, it sounds like the team is willing to bring Cook back. If Cook returns to the team, he would need to rely on a skeleton crew of wideouts to reach the levels of success he saw in 2018. That’s probably highly unlikely given the team’s wealth of draft picks and over $73 million in cap space for 2019. The Raiders figure to be one of the busiest teams in the offseason and each offensive move they make would have a direct impact on Cook’s role if he was to return.
Jesse James
Jesse James often took a backseat to Vance McDonald in 2018 as the latter finished out the year as a top-10 TE in half PPR leagues. James was fairly efficient in 2018 despite limited opportunities as his 423 receiving yards and 14.1 yards per reception were both career bests. It also helped that Ben Roethlisberger led the league in passing yards. McDonald has shown flashes over the years but he has also been plagued with injuries, which makes James a great insurance option and capable pass catcher in two TE sets. A return to Pittsburgh would likely be the best case scenario for James. The Steelers are currently in the bottom-five for available cap space with only $9.4 million to spare. Luckily for them, James shouldn’t be too expensive if they decide to bring him back. A move from Pittsburgh could mean a boost for McDonald and possibly James as well depending on where he lands.
Honorable Mentions: Antonio Gates, Jeff Heuerman, Geoff Swaim, Matt LaCosse, Ricky Seals-Jones
