George Kittle Fantasy Preview

By Mike Patch | August 25, 2023

George Kittle Fantasy 2023

By any metric, George Kittle had a very successful 2022 season, finishing second among TEs in both PPR and non-PPR points per game. Taken as the fourth TE off the board in 2022, clearly he over-performed and outplayed his ADP. Going into 2023 he is still one of the elite talents at the position. Kittle is an efficient pass catcher, with an average of 9.6 yards per target, and one of the toughest TEs to tackle, finishing no worse that sixth in yards after catch since his rookie season. These elite numbers should give the fantasy community every confidence when pulling the trigger on Kittle in their drafts. Yet these numbers don’t tell the whole tale, and while many seem to be comfortable drafting him as a top-four TE in the fifth round, I don’t share in their optimism.

Current ADP

ADP: #55
TE ADP: #4

At the hardest position to find consistency beyond the top two or three guys there is an argument to be made that Kittle has earned his status as a top four TE. Four of the last five seasons he has finished in that range in both half and full PPR, and the season he didn’t he only played eight games. So, I don’t see his ADP changing much between now and the end of the month when most drafts happen. But his current ADP makes him an early to mid-fifth-round pick. This means you’re passing up on players like Jerry Jeudy, D.J. Moore, Christian Watson, Trevor Lawrence, and J.K. Dobbins, all of whom provide more value to your fantasy team. I would take all of those players before Kittle. I would feel much more comfortable drafting players like Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, and Dallas Goedert (all of whom I have ranked higher than Kittle) toward the end of the sixth than taking Kittle in the middle of the fifth.

Fantasy Insight

There is no reasonable argument that doesn’t concede the fact that Kittle is an elite talent at the TE position. We also have to acknowledge what he did on a per-game basis last year. But a deeper look at his current situation and last season should give one pause when they are faced with the decision to draft him or an upside WR2 or RB2. The simple truth is the San Francisco 49ers have an embarrassment of riches. Their roster is full of potential breakouts, sleepers, and studs. In short, there are a lot of mouths to feed. Beyond that, Kittle scored a career-high 11 TDs last year on an 18.3% touchdown rate. That is unsustainable, so expect TD regression. His target share also went down. While an 18.9% target share is nice for a TE, it was down from his 24+% target share the previous four seasons, and even that 18.9% is misleading. He will have a healthy Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk to contend with to start the season. In seven games with a healthy Samuel and McCaffrey last year, Kittle saw just 12.3% of the 49ers targets, and in five games with the full arsenal of 49ers starters, Kittle averaged 10 PPR points and 4.2 targets per game. While it’s true that there’s no guarantee all of the 49ers skill players will stay healthy for an entire season based on their history, this is still a Kyle Shanahan-led team, which means they should lean run heavy. The 49ers have ranked bottom seven in pass attempts in three of the last four seasons, including the last two. There simply may not be enough targets to go around, and if he’s only seeing four or five targets a game he will leave you disappointed and underperform based on his ADP.

Fantasy Value

I don’t see much value in drafting Kittle as the fourth TE. I simply see too much risk and am unable to see much reward. It is often a fool’s errand to try to predict an injury in fantasy football, but without one I do not see a path to Kittle justifying his fifth round value. After players like Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, every other TE comes with a laundry list of potential positive outcomes and negative ones. They all have risks, but players like Waller and Pitts who could easily be the most targeted pass catchers on their teams are much more exciting to me because they possess the upside to be in the top three conversation. Even Goedert, who only had three touchdowns last year, would’ve been a top six tight end with a few more visits to the end zone, and you can get all of these players a round and a half to two rounds later than Kittle. In 2022 there were only two tight ends with double-digit touchdowns. One was Kelce with 12, and the other was Kittle with 11. His previous high was six. That is the difference between tight end two and tight end six. If you pick Kittle in the top four at the position, you are betting on him getting closer to 11 touchdowns than six. With all the talent around him, I am not ready to make that bet.

Dynasty Value

In dynasty, you most likely have to hold Kittle with the hope that he will have another TE2 or TE3 season. Then you could sell him at a premium and get a good return. The TE position is the hardest to predict and it’s nearly impossible to find consistency. But Kittle will turn 30 during the 2023 season and if I was able to sell him I would, but right now I don’t see getting a fair deal, which makes him a hold (for now.) Don’t buy him if you don’t currently have him on your roster. Most rookie drafts have not happened yet, and you are much better off investing in a player like Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, or Luke Musgrave than trying to buy Kittle. I believe his best days are behind him. He won’t actively hurt your team, but I don’t see him helping it too much on a weekly basis either.

Bold Prediction

I might be more down on Kittle than the consensus, although in recent weeks I have seen more and more analysts come around to my way of thinking, but I don’t see anything spectacular from Kittle this year. He needs the touchdowns in order to justify where he is going in drafts, and I just don’t see that happening. 55 receptions, 700 receiving yards, and five touchdowns, finishing as TE7.