Stefon Diggs Traded to The Texans: Fantasy Impact
Stefon Diggs Fantasy Value with the Texans
The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans certainly shocked the football world this Wednesday morning with a big-time trade sending All-Pro Wide Receiver Stefon Diggs to Houston. Texans. In return, the Bills received a 2025 2nd-round draft pick.
Diggs spent the last four seasons in Buffalo, where he earned a pro-bowl selection every year playing alongside Bills superstar quarterback Josh Allen. The wideout will now join a very impressive (on paper) offense that the Texans have assembled for next year. Led by CJ Stroud at quarterback, Diggs joins a crowded yet very strong wideout room with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and Dalton Schultz. Not to mention the addition of running back Joe Mixon. The Texans look poised to get the most out of NFL Rookie of The Year, CJ Stroud, while still playing on his rookie contract. Although Diggs has earned four straight Pro Bowl nods with Buffalo, he is now entering his age-31 season on a brand new team with a lot of stars who will also demand targets. In Buffalo, Diggs was the solidified #1 option for many years, and he developed great chemistry with Josh Allen.
During those four years with the Bills, Diggs commanded anywhere from between 26.4% - 29.5% of the entire team's target share. He was their solidified go-to guy and it shows both statistically and from a film perspective as well.
Where does this leave us with WR Stefon Diggs for fantasy football moving forward?
With the Bills last season, the 30-year-old Diggs is coming off a pro-bowl season where he caught 107 balls for 1183 yards and eight touchdowns and had 29.5% of the targets. While Diggs has been very good throughout the majority of his career, it is important to note that the 1183 yards were the lowest he's had since 2019 during his last season with Minnesota. The stat shows me just how impressive his run in Buffalo was; he dominated, which is widely known. But with any aging vet, especially at the wide receiver position, it's important to see how their recent production compares. Unfortunately, wide receivers can fall fairly quickly as they age.
Looking at his current value via FantasyPros.com, Diggs's current average rank with WRs is #22, with his draft rank being roughly around pick #46 on average. So, the industry is currently weighing him as a nice WR2 option, and this will be very interesting to follow as the offseason progresses. Will his stock rise and/or fall while on a new team?
Here's a look at the Texans top pass catchers from 2023 and their respective team target share percentages:
- WR Nico Collins: 80 Receptions, 1297 yards, and 8 touchdowns (22.7% target share) in only 15 games.
- WR Tank Dell: 47 Receptions, 709 yards and 7 touchdowns. (20.4% target share) in only 11 games.
- WR Noah Brown: 33 Receptions, 567 Receiving Yards, and 2 touchdowns (16.9% target share) in 10 games.
- TE Dalton Schultz: 59 Receptions, 635 Receiving Yards, and 5 touchdowns (17.5% target share) in 15 games.
It's important to note that all of these pass catchers are also returning to the Houston Texans in 2024. So Diggs is joining a crowded room where he must earn his targets on an impressive offense.
As we learn more about this situation and his role on this team, I don't think he will be able to hit the 29.5% target share that he did last year with Buffalo. This Texans team is a lot more talented than the Bills were last season, not to mention Digg's target % decreased last season with the emergence of Dalton Kincaid. Hypothetically, with a reduced target % in an offense, his production may also take a dip. With a decreased role and entering a 31-year season, Diggs fantasy value for next year and beyond may start to drop lower and lower.
On the flip side of this, though, Diggs joining an Offensive unit like what the Texans have now may also help his game in other areas. Diggs being on another high-powered offense is enticing because of his opportunities to score, and the Texans should score a lot of points in 2024. While Injuries are a devastating factor in this game, both Nico Collins and Tank Dell didn't play a complete season in 2023. Stefon has played in 15+ consecutively since 2019. Diggs could also be utilized in different ways with a different role, but this could be a good thing as well as he may go up against lesser talent at cornerback. With teams now focusing on so many weapons, Diggs may line up everywhere in that offense and succeed.
When evaluating fantasy prospects, the team's offensive capabilities are important. I would much rather invest draft capital into a wideout who is on an offense that is going to move the ball say rather than the Washington Commanders. It's more opportunity consistently.
All in all, there are plenty of reasons to be somewhat optimistic about Diggs and his fantasy value heading into 2024, but there are also plenty of reasons to be cautious and potentially stay away from him as well. As his fantasy value and draft value will adjust throughout the offseason, he will be a name to follow and to keep an eye on come training camp.
At his current ADP and fourth-round price, I am more on the cautious side personally and that price would be too stiff for me for a veteran wide receiver entering his age 31-season. But If I was able to get him at the right price, I would. For someone who has been such a valuable fantasy player for so long, I don't think you can write him off just yet. But, it is all about where you can get him and for what price.
Jacob Hamilton
Jake Hamilton began his writing journey in 2016 when he interned with the Buffalo Bills while finishing his bachelor's degree in Business Administration. Jake has been playing different types of fantasy football for well over 10+ years. After some time off from writing, Jake hopes to share with you all that he has learned in his experiences to help you win your fantasy leagues. He is also a sad life long fan of the Las Vegas Raiders. Give him a follow if you’re interested in fantasy football tips, rankings, prop bets, and dynasty advice. He always loves a good football convo!