Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 17
Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 17
I cannot believe it, but the fantasy championship week is here. After this week the majority of leagues will be done until 2024 when we start this whole thing over again. For those of you in the championship, congratulations. You likely got there due to a combination of knowledge, luck, savvy waiver wire pickups, and a lack of injuries. You may have also taken some risks along the way inserting players into your lineup that may not have been the obvious choice. I get it, in your final week it could be hard to take certain risks, but with week 16 thrusting injury upon many key players, you may not have a choice but to be creative. This is the case for me where I have a squad that includes Chase, Stevenson, D.J. Moore, Waddle, Stroud, and Hockenson. All of whom were either hurt coming into week 16 or got hurt during week 16. In fact, injuries were so bad that I was forced to play Dontayvion Wicks who, you guessed it, got hurt toward the end of the first half and missed the rest of the game. Still, I somehow managed to sneak into the championship but could be without several key components. If you find yourself in a similar situation (or if you are on the fence about who to start), the names below could help. Here are my start ‘em, sit ‘em picks for this, the final week of fantasy football. Enjoy and good luck.
Week 17 Starts
*Start Stat Percentage, Via Sleeper
Jared Goff (QB)
Detroit Lions vs. DAL (51% Start)
With the Detroit Lions already clinching the NFC North and punching their ticket to the postseason they are beginning to play with a level of confidence we have not seen in a long time. Also, at 11-4, they are still very much in contention for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and as anyone who has seen Goff play at home knows, that would be a major advantage. One reason the Lions find themselves in this position is the play of QB Jared Goff. Goff has 3,984 yards and 27 scores through the first 15 games of the season and against a Dallas Cowboys squad that enters week 17 on a two-game losing streak he could find himself busy once again. The Cowboys have found much greater success at home this season than on the road with seven of their 10 wins coming at home, and they could make things difficult for Goff & Co. in this one forcing Goff into a shootout. Goff has thrown for more than 200 yards in all but one game this season and has thrown more than 30 times in all but three games. Against a Dallas offense that is averaging 39 points per game at home, Goff should be called upon early and often leading to solid fantasy production in this crucial week.
Brock Purdy (QB)
San Francisco 49ers vs. WAS (61% Start)
After a six-game stretch where Brock Purdy scored at least 25 fantasy points in all but one game, he finally looked human against one of the best defenses in the league. If you were relying on him in week 16 there’s a good chance you may not have made the championship. 2.4 fantasy points hurts no matter who is scoring it, but it especially hurts coming from the quarterback position. But if you do have a matchup this week and are considering pivoting away from Purdy after that dismal showing, I would reconsider. The Ravens are a top-2 defense against quarterbacks this season and the Commanders are, well, not. In 2023, the Commanders have been the most generous defense to opposing signal callers meaning Purdy will be in a great spot for a bounce-back game. The Commanders should find it difficult to keep up with the likes of CMC, Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle and Purdy should be able to take advantage of a defense that is allowing nearly 22 fantasy points per game to QBs. There was always going to be some risk going with Purdy against the Ravens, but in week 17 he should be able to find his way to another 20-30 point outing. Make sure he’s in your lineup when he does.
Aaron Jones (RB)
Green Bay Packers vs. MIN (63% Start)
With a starting percentage of slightly over 60%, it is obvious that many fantasy managers out there are back on the Aaron Jones train. Still, that number is not as high as I think it should be, especially this week. I will admit that it has been a while since Jones has been a recommended start for me, but after seeing him produce 21 rush attempts for 127 yards (an average of over six yards per attempt) Jones finally looked like the elite talent at the position we had come to expect over the years. Sunday was his first 100-yard rushing performance of the season, but it could just be a sign of things to come. Jones’ day could’ve even been better if he hadn’t gotten vultured on a pair of one-yard rushing TDs by AJ Dillon and Jordan Love. The Vikings are a tougher matchup than the Panthers but they still aren’t a particularly intimidating one and with Jones getting some of his juice back I would expect the Packers to lean on him to help take some of the pressure off of QB Jordan Love, especially since it remains to be seen who he will have to throw to in week 17. Wide receivers Watson, Reed, and Wicks are all dealing with injuries which could make it difficult to get anything going in the passing game. This all puts Jones right back in the top-15 conversation at the RB position for Week 17.
Ty Chandler (RB)
Minnesota Vikings vs. GB (41% Start)
On the other side of the ball, Ty Chandler might not be a bad start either. In week 16, Alexander Mattison was active. I expect this caused many fantasy managers to bench Ty Chandler and take a wait-and-see approach with the two backs to see how the workload would be split. If that was you, it likely worked out because neither back did much of anything against the Lions. Mattison received just two carries for -1 yard and Chandler fared only slightly better with eight carries for 17 yards. The difference was that Chandler got the touchdown so while it wasn’t a great showing by any means it ended up being a serviceable one if you did keep him in your lineup. But the Lions are the No. 1 defense against fantasy running backs, allowing the fewest points to the position. I would expect a much more efficient day against a Packers defense that is a bottom-10 unit against running backs and that has allowed four rushing scores over the last three games. If Chandler remains the top option in this backfield (and we have no reason to believe he won’t) then he could be in for a busy day, especially with journeyman Nick Mullens under center for an offense that just lost rookie Jordan Addison and TE T.J. Hockenson to injury.
George Pickens (WR)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. SEA (36% Start)
George Pickens has been a frustrating player to have on your fantasy roster. He is a player with all the talent in the world, but often linked to poor quarterback play, disappearing at times, but then showing his upside in games when he really goes off. Week 16 was one such game. Against the Cincinnati Bengals Pickens caught four of six targets for 195 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, 152 of those yards came on his two touchdown catches, but that is the type of upside a player like Pickens provides. The unfortunate thing about Pickens is that it’s impossible to predict when those games will be so there is a high likelihood that those who own him were watching him do all this damage from their bench. The only thing I can say about that is that I hope his outing wasn’t the difference between making or not making the championship. The silver lining is that this was Pickens’s first game this season with Mason Rudolph as the starter and there’s a chance that it is that move that has helped unleash Pickens. If so, and if Rudolph gets another start, then Pickens should be able to produce against a Seattle Seahawks defense allowing the seventh most points to wide receivers. The unknown at the moment is Kenny Pickett’s potential return as the starter, but even if he does return I still like Pickens as a WR2 option this week in the hopes he can build off of his career day.
Courtland Sutton (WR)/Jerry Jeudy (WR)
Denver Broncos vs. LAC (59%/27% Start)
Let me first say that this is much more about the matchup than any belief in Sutton or Jeudy as elite fantasy options. Still, since coming out of their week 9 bye, Sutton has been consistent if not spectacular with four games (out of six) of 13 or more fantasy points. I’m not counting week 16 because he left that game very early with a concussion. If Sutton can clear concussion protocol and play on Sunday against the Chargers then he should be able to produce against the third most generous defense to opposing wide receivers this season. If he is unable to go, then Jerry Jeudy could be a sneaky start against that same defense. Jeudy has failed to deliver on the promise we have seen at times, but if he is the de facto No. 1 option in this passing game then I like his chances of producing low-end WR2 numbers. Both players come with a certain level of risk. While QB Russell Wilson has been playing much better this season than in 2022, he has still shown signs of inconsistency, and knowing which version will show up is hard, but as the QB9 on the season, Wilson has more often than not produced in favorable matchups and week 17 is about as favorable as they come.
Gerald Everett (TE)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. DEN (20% Start)
On the other side of the ball, other than the obvious set-it-and-forget plays like Austin Ekeler (although he’s been far less automatic this season) and Keenan Allen (if he’s able to go), I would look to TE Gerald Everett if you just lost Hockenson for the season or have not liked the production you’ve been getting from your tight end. Everett has received eight targets in each of the last three games and while Allen’s return could take some targets away from Everett, where Everett maneuvers and the routes he runs play into what is being asked of backup QB Easton Stick much more than Allen’s game does. Everett has also had the added benefit of building chemistry with Stick over the last two games while Allen has been sidelined. I don’t think Everett simply goes away when Allen returns. The matchup is also as good as it gets. The Broncos have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends this year and if Everett gets his usual 8 targets he should be able to produce as a low-end TE1. If he gets more than eight targets because the matchup is so great and if he finds the end zone then we could be talking about a top-5 finish in the most crucial of fantasy weeks.
Week 17 Sits
Trevor Lawrence (QB)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. CAR (51% Start)
Over the last four weeks, no one can doubt the toughness of Trevor Lawrence. In that span, Lawrence suffered a concussion, a high ankle sprain, and now a shoulder injury, and yet every time he has battled through them to be on the field and give his team the best chance of winning. It’s incredible that with all that, Lawrence has yet to miss a single game this year however, the production has dropped off considerably over the last two games. One of these games was against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that has been one of the most favorable fantasy matchups for opposing QBs this year. This could all be a sign that the injuries are beginning to take a toll. He could end up missing this week with his shoulder injury but as of now the belief is that he will tough it out again, but even if he does he should not be in your lineup. Over the last two weeks, Lawrence has failed to score more than 17 points in either game and has finished outside the top-20 at the position. Even if he was 100% healthy his situation would be a tough one. Injuries to key starters Christian Kirk and Zay Jones have made production tough to come by. This all makes him a very risky play in week 17.
De’Von Achane (RB)
Miami Dolphins vs. BAL (55% Start)
This one hurts because at times this season, RB De’Von Achane has looked like he possesses more upside than any player at the position. But the last time we saw that upside was in week 13 in a blowout win against the Washington Commanders, when he rushed 17 times for 73 yards and two scores, adding three receptions for 30 yards. Since that game, however, he has not hit double-digit points once and has taken a major back seat to starter Raheem Mostert. Some of this could be due to all the injuries he has suffered or the Dolphins could be trying to keep him fresh for the playoffs, but whatever the reason we have not seen much of the dynamic playmaker we had grown accustomed to. Achane averaged an absurd 12.1 yards per carry early in the season, and while that was never going to be sustainable, we were hoping for more than the 4.3 yards per carry we’ve seen since his return from IR. If Achane’s efficiency stays closer to this number then he is likely to disappoint again in week 17 with a limited number of carries working behind Raheem Mostert. It’s possible Achane gets more work in the passing game if Waddle is inactive, but that didn’t exactly happen when Tyreek Hill missed time. Once an automatic start in fantasy circles, Achane has developed into more of a boom-or-bust RB2, which is not the type of player you want to start against a stingy Baltimore defense.
Joe Mixon (RB)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. KC (90% Start)
Let me preface this by saying that Mixon is not a must-sit, but if you have other solid options this could be a week to pivot away from the Bengals running back. Before week 16, Mixon was beginning to look like the RB1 those who drafted him had hoped they were getting with three straight double-digit outings, including two of 20+ fantasy points. But in week 16, in what should’ve been a favorable matchup against the Steelers, Mixon failed to find the end zone scoring just eight half-PPR points. Now he faces a much tougher challenge in the Kansas City Chiefs. Say what you will about Mahomes and this Chiefs offense (and there is much to say) but they are still capable of getting off to a fast start and putting teams on their heels. If that happens the Bengals will be forced to rely more heavily on Jake Browning and the passing game which would not bode well for Mixon. As I said, Mixon is not a must-sit player, but he is also not someone you have to start, because if Cincinnati’s offense gets off to a slow start versus the Chiefs, it could be a long day at Arrowhead for Mixon.
Garrett Wilson (WR)
New York Jets vs. CLE (80% Start)
Garrett Wilson is a talented player. Unfortunately, his quarterback situation is about as bad as it gets and he is facing a very stout Cleveland defense in week 17. While I’d be crazy to tell you to sit Breece Hall after what he did in week 16, sitting Wilson is a much easier case to make. Cleveland’s defense has been a problem for most offensive units this season. They are allowing the second fewest fantasy points to wide receivers with an average of 27.1 fantasy points per game. While the Jets’ offense managed to produce points in week 16, that was against the Commanders, who have been one of the most generous defensive units to every position, but the Browns are a different story. Garrett Wilson will continue to see a healthy amount of volume in the passing game, but I would not expect that volume to lead to production. The Cleveland defense is capable of making any quarterback look average, which is a problem when the person under center is already below average. Get away from Wilson this week.
Dalton Kincaid (TE)
Buffalo Bills vs. NE (44% Start)
2023 has been a bit of an up-and-down season for rookie TE Dalton Kincaid, with the majority of the ups coming while fellow TE Dawson Knox was on the shelf due to injury. With Knox out of the lineup, Kincaid had five top-12 finishes at the position. He was a weekly starter that was a guaranteed 6-10 targets, with both yardage and touchdown upside. With Knox in the lineup, Kincaid has finished no better than TE17, often failing to crack the top-25 at the position, and over the last two games, Kincaid has just one catch for seven yards. It is clear that when Knox is in the Bills’ lineup, Kincaid should not be in yours. This take has nothing to do with Kincaid the player. Kincaid is a very talented pass-catching TE prospect. We have also seen what his potential ceiling could be in this high-powered offense if he had the role all to himself. But that ceiling is significantly capped by the presence of Knox. In your final game of the fantasy season, especially if you’re playing for a championship, relying on a player with a limited ceiling and a very low floor is not the best bet.
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T.J. Besler
A die hard Bears fan and fantasy sports fantastic, T.J. Besler earned his journalism (and theatre) degree from The University of Iowa. When he isn’t busy writing parodies for his YouTube channel Parodies for Charities he can be found either on stage performing or doing all things fantasy football related. Besler has traveled to nearly all 50 states either for work or leisure, and is grateful to everyone who has helped him along the way, especially his lovely wife Elsa, without whom much of this would not be possible. BEAR DOWN!