Fantasy Football News & Notes: Week 1
Fantasy Football News & Notes is a weekly article that breaks down and analyzes noteworthy occurrences and developing trends in Fantasy Football. You can also read FantasyData's player news feed, which is an aggregate partner from RotoBaller. However, this article dives deeper by not only reporting news but finding patterns, trends, and offering Fantasy advice.
For example, a seven reception, 175 yard, two-touchdown day from Tedd Ginn Jr. is a noteworthy occurrence while four out five games with fewer than five catches and eight targets per game is a trend. Both tell a story and have Fantasy meaning. A rookie running back, like AJ Dillon for the Green Bay Packers or Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts, who lead their team in rushing attempts in week #1 is noteworthy, but it doesn't mean he has earned a starting job on Fantasy Managers rosters...yet. If he leads that team after Week #2 and then Week #3, it's a trend. Those are the types of scenarios I will bring to your attention and analyze each week in this article.
Trends
Week #1
This has been a weird sports year. Heck, it's been a weird life year. On many, it's been difficult. Filled with confusion and uncertainty. That's true in Fantasy football as well. Every year football fans and Fantasy team Managers complain about how useless, and pointless, pre-season games are. Well, this year we see why, in Fantasy football, they serve an important role. Fantasy Managers have had less reporting on training camp comings and goings to consider because it's all about practicing and not playing, even meaningless games. We don't have touches and targets to examine a players ability against NFL competition, or how teams might utilize a player's skill set, and the types or amount of opportunities a player may get and Fantasy Managers can expect. Position battles and potential committee situations are less defined due to a lack of data. Data is what this article is about. It's difficult for me to write an article about Trends when I don't have any to analyze. I'm in the dark and so are you. Left to guess. So, we need to rely on the basics. The fundamentals. We need to give a little bit more respect to previous years' performance, both for specific players' abilities but also when considering weekly matchups. If a team was extremely good or extremely bad at stopping the run or defending the pass in 2019, and especially so if it's 2018 and 2019 combined, then we need to give that it's due when making difficult decisions. We also need to be more skeptical about rookies. Everyone is starting Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but that level of certainty doesn't exist for almost any other rookie in this draft class. The NFL is a difficult transition and raw ability and explosive potential don't guarantee opportunities, especially in Week #1. We have seen what looked like slam dunk rookie starters in ideal circumstances benched or limited due to struggles in pass protection. Rookie receivers who don't run good routes or don't fully grasp the playbook or how to make the right reads and adjustments. In this climate under these extremely uncertain circumstances, Fantasy team managers need to be more conservative when making Start/Sit decisions. Also, and this may be contrary to my advice so far, Managers need to stick to their pre-draft projections. Whether it was good, bad or downright ugly, we don't have a clue yet. Trust yourself, trust the Expert analysts that you relied on when developing your rankings for the draft and set your lineups.
Rookies and Week #1 Start/Sit
I am conservative in player projections. I trust data and sample sizes. After doing this for almost ten years and playing Fantasy sports for more than 30, I don't trust and rarely rely on rookies in Fantasy football. 2020 is an extreme case that makes that mantra even more true. As I said above, rookies have a difficult transition that takes more than just explosive ability to see the field and receive opportunities to shine for Fantasy Managers. I also said above to trust your projections. If you have a rookie rated highly and drafted them fully expecting them to be a weekly starter then stick to your guns in Week #1. But, if you didn't, be cautious and don't hesitate to take a "wait and see" approach. This is especially true at running back. Here are a few rookie RB's and my take on Week #1.
Cam Akers, RB Los Angeles Rams (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
FantasyData.com projects Mr. Akers to score 8.74 Fantasy points as the 35th ranked running back for Week #1 in full-point PPR formats against a Dallas Cowboys defense that ranked 11th in rushing yards allowed (103.5 rushing yards allowed per game) and only 14 touchdowns. I have to assume that those projections are largely based on the uncertainty surrounding his touches and targets. There were reports that Darrel Henderson had a slight lead in the battle to be the #1 in this committee, but he is injured and hasn't practiced. The possible alternative to Henderson is Malcolm Brown and we have seen what he can do...mostly nothing. Sports Illustrated reports that Brown is the lead back while Rotoworld lists Akers as the lead back on their depth charts. I don't see how either of those make sense. Akers is far and away the best player in this group and I expect that to prove true early in 2020.
I bought into Akers during draft season and have shares of him in almost every league I play. I love that his potential status as the second or third RB has dropped him down Week #1 projections, making him a potential bargain in Daily Fantasy Sports as well. However, I don't love the matchup. The Cowboys know how to stop the run regardless of personnel changes and that's a Trend that needs to be respected until proven otherwise. It pains me to recommend Fantasy Managers Sit a player I am so invested in and who I project to be the best rookie in Fantasy in 2020 on the opening weekend of his rookie campaign. But, when you combine one of the tougher matchups of the week with potentially deceptive or misleading comments out of Los Angeles about who is where on their depth chart, I need to air on the side of caution and rank him as a shakey Flex at best. I suspect most Managers have a safer, more reliable wide receiver to put in their Flex, especially in PPR formats.
In DFS, the matchup doesn't frighten me enough to make me run scared, but he isn't a guaranteed target either. His price is suppressed and I love that he could be a bargain with RB1 potential in a tough matchup. He is a contrarian pick in tournaments and should have low ownership percentages at a bargain price tag. That's a resume I like to see on Sundays in DFS. I think I am buying in on Akers in that format.
Jonathan Taylor, RB Indianapolis Colts (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
Unlike Akers, I am not buying Taylor in 2020. I don't doubt the scouting reports that he is one of the better rookie running backs. I am on board in saying that Taylor could be the best RB's in this draft class over the next five years and that includes everybody's shiny new toy, Clyde Edwards-Helaire. But, I like Marlon Mack. He rushed for just under 1,100 yards in 2019 and limited opportunities just under 1,000 in 2018. He has proven that while his ceiling isn't as high, his floor is very safe. And, as a veteran, I expect the Colts to lean on him at least as often if not more than Taylor in 2020. That includes Week #1. All that criticism aside, that doesn't mean I am not in on Taylor in Week #1 or out on Marlon Mack, his committee partner in the Colts backfield.
FantasyData.com projects Taylor to score 8.82 Fantasy points and ranks him as the #34th RB in Week #1, six slots behind committee situation partner, Mr. Mack, in PPR formats. The Colts ranked 7th in rushing yards per game (133.1 rushing yards per game) and fifth in total attempts (471) in 2019. That bodes well for touches. The fact that they face the Jacksonville Jaguars just makes it easier to like Taylor...and Mack in Week #1. The Jags allowed 139.3 rushing yards per game and 23 total rushing touchdowns in 2019. In 2020, they released starting bell-cow Leonard Fournette, they have a second-year QB and most outlets project them to be one of the worst teams in the AFC on their way to a potential battle for the #1 overall pick in the 2021 draft. Taylor is a must-start, and so is Marlon Mack, in 12 team leagues. The matchup dictates as much. Going forward, I expect this committee to be a popular topic for Trends and noteworthy in the weeks to come. My early prediction: watch Mr. Mack.
** UPDATE **
Rotoworld reported today that the Colts drafted Taylor to "spell Mack in the middle of games to keep him fresh for the fourth quarter" for the 2020 season. I have always thought Mack was a great value and that he would be their lead back, but if Taylor is only going to "spell" Mack and be limited to 5-8 carries a game then he could become waiver wire fodder sooner rather than later. Considering this new development, if true, Taylor is a Sit this week. I don't know if I fully believe this report, but it's enough to make Mack an RB2 and Taylor a Sit for Week #1.
J.K. Dobbins, RB Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cleveland Browns)
I consider Dobbins an investment. Both in keeper leagues where his value is highest, but also in yearly leagues as the season dredges on. Mark Ingram II has proven to be a legitimate running back. If he plays 16 games he is a guaranteed 1,000 yard rusher with double-digit touchdowns and another 25-40 receptions and 200-400 receiving yards. But, he is aging and while he is still young enough to tote the rock 200-220 times, he has never been a true workhorse. He has never rushed the ball more than 230 times and with Dobbins and Lamar Jackson in the backfield, he doesn't have to. The Ravens can maximize his carries and that means good things for Dobbins...as the season progresses and In Week #1 as well. Dobbins benefits from one of the best matchups of the slate. The Browns should be better in 2020 than they were in 2019, but a leopard can't change their spots overnight. Fantasy Managers need to respect what the Ravens and what the Browns were in 2019 and in the case of the Browns run defense, 2018 as well.
The Browns were abysmal at stopping the run in 2019 and almost as bad in 2018 while the Ravens were insanely productive at it. The Browns allowed 144.7 rushing yards per game (third-worst in the NFL) in 2019 while the Ravens averaged 206 yards per game on the ground (the best in the NFL). The Ravens scored 21 rushing touchdowns while the Browns allowed 19. This is going to be a rushing bonanza for the Ravens and while it hurts both Ingram and Dobbins to be sharing the wealth in DFS, it makes them both must-starts in weekly leagues. In 2020, I expect Dobbins touches to grow and while I don't expect him to be the premiere back or even an equal share, he is likely to be at minimum a Flex most weeks and in some weeks, like this one, a borderline RB2 in 12 team leagues. I am likely fading him in DFS, both this week and most, because guessing who has the big day in a committee is a fools errand and that's likely the scenario every week until the calendar turns to 2021 when it's likely to be Dobbins job alone.
Rookie Wide Receivers - Start/Sit
I am reluctant to recommend rookie wideouts and more so this year than ever before, even though this years draft was loaded. Wide Receiver and Tight End for that matter, after Quarterback, are the toughest adjustments to make for rookies from the college to pro game. There is so much to learn and the breakneck pace just makes it that much more difficult. Talent alone doesn't make it at RB, but that's even more true at WR. Quarterbacks need to trust that their wide receiver will be where they are supposed to be when they are supposed to be there and for rookies, that's an extremely demanding bar to reach.
There are a multiple of extremely talented wide receivers that are at least WR3's on their team's depth chart and who could produce based on their matchups and how defenses prioritize them in their Week #1 schemes. When it comes to running backs it's relatively easy to rank and slot them in as either RB2 or Flex plays. At WR, it's more about a Fantasy team Managers roster construction and the size of a Fantasy Managers league. I don't rank any rookie WR's as a Fantasy WR2 or better, but once you get to WR3 or Flex that opens the door to as many as 50-75 viable starting wide receivers. That means almost any WR justifies Flex consideration and rookies with talent qualify. Here are the rookie wideouts that, depending on your situation and the size of your league, justify at least Flex consideration.
CeeDee Lamb - Dallas Cowboys (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
The Rams were a Top 12 pass defense in total yards allowed per game in 2019 and Jalen Ramsey just signed a huge extension, but he will likely shadow Amari Cooper or possibly Michael Gallup on occasion. The Cowboys are a crowded offense for Lamb to find opportunities but it opens up situational mismatches for the talented rookie as well.
Henry Ruggs III - Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Carolina Panthers)
The Panthers ranked 13th, one behind the Rams, in passing yards allowed per game in 2019. Jon Gruden is supposed to be an offensive genius and Ruggs is an explosive talent. What we do know is the Panthers don't look to be a great team. We'll see.
Jerry Jeudy - Denver Broncos (vs. Tennessee Titans)
The Titans ranked seventh-worst in passing yards allowed (272.3 yards per game) in 2019 and allowed 25 receiving touchdowns. The Titans are perceived to be a good defense, but in 2019 the numbers suggest they were at best pedestrian. The Fantasy community has been whispering about a possible breakout season for Drew Locks after an impressive finish to 2019. If this is the first of many breakout performances for Lock then the Titans are a defense that they can exploit and Jeudy could be one of the beneficiaries as his #2 target behind Courtland Sutton.
Brandon Aiyuk - San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
An interesting opportunity for Aiyuk, who has been battling a hamstring injury and didn't practice Wednesday (neither did teammate Deebo Samuel), as the 49ers attempt to recover from their heartbreaking Super Bowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2019. The 49ers are a run-first, run-heavy team while the Cardinals ranked a league-worst in passing yards allowed per game (299.1 per game) and second-worst in passing touchdowns (38) allowed. With Deebo Samuel injured as well if Aiyuk can get on the field and perform there is a huge opportunity in one of the friendliest matchups of the Week #1 slate. He is a deep threat against a bad pass defense.
Veterans and Week #1 Start/Sit
With rookies, it's about uncertainty. How do they acclimate to the next level, to their new surroundings, and to a new offensive system and teammates? With veterans, it's about skills. For us older folks, we remember when Shaun Alexander signed a huge new contract with the Seattle Seahawks only to be almost useless almost immediately. The collapse can happen quickly. We saw it with Todd Gurley when the Rams utilized him sparingly to finish 2018 and it may have cost them a Super Bowl victory over the Patriots. Then, in 2019, the Rams limited his touches and targets and his performance was well below what we had become used to. Now, in 2020, he isn't a Ram any longer, he fell in drafts and the predictors think he is done. Without a pre-season to at least get some video of these risky veterans, it is difficult to know what we might have in Week #1. Fantasy Managers need to stick to their draft season evaluations and projections when making Start/Sit decisions in Week #1 because it's all we have. Here are a few veterans that could be boom or busts for the opening week.
A.J. Green - Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
I am concerned about Green in Week #1 for multiple reasons. I thought there were better alternatives available and because I don't expect him to return to being a #1 caliber WR. Tyler Boyd is the better Bengal, and with a rookie quarterback, who I am actually high on this season, there could be struggles or at least growing pains. In Week #1, the Chargers are a bad matchup to start the season for Green. They ranked third in passing yards allowed at a skinny 212.1 yards allowed per game and 21 touchdowns to wide receivers in 2019. It's a tough matchup and Green has been battling a hamstring injury. Reports downplay the injury but it could limit his routes and snaps and possibly his performance. His ADP of #78.2, ranking as the 38th best WR in drafts, and Fantasy scoring projection of 12.64 points (#31st best amongst WRs) this week all suggest he should be a starter, but I am not so sure. The uncertainty concerns me. If I had a viable alternative with comparable Week #1 projections I would be seriously considering sitting Green this week. But, for Fantasy Managers that bought into Green, you have to go with your gut and those projections, and start him. There isn't any evidence to alter your draft day projections yet. That's the problem with Covid-19 2020.
Melvin Gordon III - Denver Broncos (vs. Tennessee Titans)
His ADP (#37.2). RB draft rank (#21) and Week #1 projections (21st rated RB and 12.74 Fantasy points) all dictate that Gordon is a must-start, but if I have shares of him I am not feeling rosey about the situation. The little we have heard about Gordon in training camp has been negative, Phillip Lindsay is far more explosive on the field and the Titans are a legitimate defense who have high hopes in 2020. Vegas has the over/under at 42 1/2 as of my writing, the lowest projected point total of the opening slate. This should be a run-focused game on both sides and touches are good, but low scoring and a lot of punting is bad for Fantasy production and that concerns me with Gordon and his sub-4 yards per carry average. It feels to me like Managers that drafted him must start him and that they are destined to regret it on Monday morning and I can't recommend otherwise. Where he was drafted and what he is projected to score this week, he has to be in your lineups. But I am not buying in. I wrote that I think Gordon is a 2020 bust and as I write it now, I think he is in Week #1 as well. In Daily Fantasy I am definitely fading him.
Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. New York Giants)
I have one share of Big Ben in 2020 and I didn't like the pick the second I made it. The clock was ticking down and I had to make a call and DRAFT. I hit the button before I was auto picked. In the time crunch, I dismissed the elbow concerns and saw flashes of the old Big Ben and the old explosive Antonio Brown Steelers and I clicked the click. Currently, our projections rank him as the 13th best QB in Week #1 with 16.96 projected Fantasy points. Right on the cusp of must-start in 12 team leagues with a matchup against 2019's fifth-worst pass defense. The Giants allowed 30 passing touchdowns and 264 yards per game through the air. We haven't heard that Ben's elbow has been anything but healthy and of course, we haven't really been able to see for ourselves in live game action. I am one of the few Fantasy analysts who believe that Managers should roster multiple, viable starting quarterbacks and for those with Roethlisberger shares, it is even more prudent. Week #1 is a matchup that demands a start for Big Ben Fantasy Managers, but I can see how taking a wait and see approach is a viable one here. He missed almost all of 2019 with an elbow injury that few NFL quarterbacks have successfully recovered from or even had to. It's a rare injury for QBs.
Noteworthy
Entering Week #1 there are plenty of "interesting" situations and players to keep an eye on. Without pre-season games and data, snap counts, or scheme samples to examine, it's purely anecdotal and situational speculation. That's not how my "noteworthy" segment is intended to work but in this strange new world in the first week of the 2020 Fantasy season, that's how it is for now. Here are some noteworthy players and potential happenings that I am keeping an eye on for Week #1 in the NFL and Fantasy football.
Antonio Gibson - RB Washington football team (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
Washington doesn't have much talent on the field and they have nothing but challenges and distractions to have to deal with off of it. As if dealing with Covid-19 wasn't enough, they have sexual-harassment issues revolving around their owner, their newly hired head coach is dealing with cancer and they don't even have an official team name yet. Talk about difficult. On the field, who is going to do anything for them outside of Terry McLaurin? A multi-faceted playmaker whose scouting reports and the chatter surrounding him reminds me of Percy Harvin. Gibson could do a little of everything from everywhere as a rookie. He could be a great story and a fascinating playmaker to watch. It's noteworthy to check in and see if he becomes must-view.
Joe Burrow - QB Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
I can't recommend starting a rookie quarterback on opening day but I am intrigued by the potential Burrow has to be a viable starting Fantasy quarterback in 2020. The weapons are there on offense and the 2019 season was one of the best in college football history. We aren't hearing Peyton Manning or even Andrew Luck comps, but after his 2019 season for LSU, shouldn't we? I am curious to see if the Bengals shelter and protect their young QB or if they cut loose and go nuts. Make a push to win that division. Insane I know, but an argument can be made that they have the most explosive offensive weapons in the division. Lamar Jackson is the most explosive player, but the Bengals may have the most explosive collection of talent. I am intrigued to see how it unfolds. This is "The Bungals" after all.
Brandon Aiyuk - WR San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
I discussed him above but it's noteworthy below as well. The 49ers need to be more explosive in the passing game in order to get over the hump and win the Super Bowl as long as Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are doing 2019 type things and Aiyuk could be that piece for San Fran. Deebo Samuel is better suited to be a true #1 wide receiver, but Aiyuk is the deep threat. I am curious to see if "Jimmy G" can maximize the skill set.
Cam Akers - RB Los Angeles Rams (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
I mentioned Mr. Akers above as well but talk out of the Rams front office and the coaching staff has been noteworthy. They have gone out of their way to make it abundantly clear that this is a three-player committee but it makes no sense. Akers is far and away the most talented player on that committee. It shouldn't be much of a competition for touches at all. Akers should have been anointed on draft day as "the guy." I suspect internally, they all know he is, and I am curious to see how quickly that proves true on the field. He is my rookie of the year and pick for Fantasy bargain of the year, but if this situation is a true committee situation then there's zero chance either of those predictions come true.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - RB Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Houston Texans)
I am walking a fine line with CEH. I believe he will be a good player but a grossly over-drafted, relatively disappointing one in 2020. He is explosive and this Chiefs offense is insanely loaded and will be impossible to contain. That means CEH is going to be a must-start, very good, RB2 type player as a rookie. What do we see in Week #1? An unstoppable mismatch? A three-down back who totals 100+ yards on the ground, 75-125 yards through the air and a touchdown or two? Or do we see a pass-catcher and change-of-pace back who exploits linebackers in the flat and in well-designed pass routes that force the Texans to assign a safety to cover him? I expect the latter and that ain't gonna justify his #6 ADP. This is going t be a shootout and if CEH doesn't fill up the stat sheet it could be a huge Week #2 story.
Cam Newton - QB New England Patriots (vs. Miami Dolphins)
How does this go? Does he bring an explosive dimension to Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick's offense that we never conceived possible under Drew Bledsoe and the great Tom Brady or does he prove to lack the MVP skills he once had? Or, does he prove to be what Cam always was. A great athlete with a multiple of skills who completes 58-61% of his passes and is inconsistent in fully utilizing what McDaniels and Belichick provide him? It's the Dolphins but don't sleep on them. They are on the rise. This could be a statement game...by both teams.
Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs - QB/WR Buffalo Bills (vs. New York Jets)
An amazing athlete with an arm that can make every throw and a few only John Elway and Jeff George could make. Does Josh Allen finally become an efficient, intelligent, 4,500 yards, 35 touchdown MVP type QB proving that a Stefon Diggs type talent at WR was what was always missing? Robert Woods, Marquis Goodwin and Sammy Watkins would probably have something to say about that. We'll see. I faded Diggs this offseason so you know where I am leaning here but I am a Josh Allen fan and I would love to see him become a great passer rather than a guy whose running ability exploits flaws in what is currently standard Fantasy scoring.
Chris Mitchell
Chris Mitchell began his Fantasy Sports Writing/Podcasting career with RotoExperts.com, writing about Minor League Prospects, Fantasy Football and Baseball. He won a 2017 FSWA award for "Best Comedy Article" and was Nominated for "Best Fantasy Podcast” in 2018. He has worked as a freelance writer and season-long contributor to BaseballAmerica.com and as a Daily Fantasy Sports analyst for Fantasydraft.com. His content has appeared in a multiple of outlets like The AP, The New York Daily Post, USAToday, Fantrax.com and more. He is President of Bosco Nation, where his Podcasts can be found BlogTalkRadio