Fantasy Football News and Notes: Week 7
Fantasy Football News and Notes: Week 7
Six weeks of Fantasy Football News and Notes. The samples are growing, the data is starting to matter and we are starting to see meaningful trends in both team data and player performance. Rookies are breaking out while veterans are busting. Ryan Fitzpatrick was breaking out and now he's benched. TY Hilton is being discussed as a possible cut in yearly leagues while Le'Veon Bell is a Chief and Antonio Brown may be a NFL player again. Clyde Edwards-Helaire's 2020 future is fascinating, Myles Gaskin is developing into a difference-maker for those lucky enough to claim him early in the season. I find rookies to be the most interesting to examine at this stage. Cam Akers was a player I thought could contribute early and clearly, he hasn't. CeeDee Lamb was an intriguing rookie but I didn't think he would be this good this. fast. Chase Claypool was nowhere near my radar while CEH has been more or less what many of the analysts thought he could be and yet he may turn out to be the gross ADP overdraft I expected.
Targets and Fades: Rookies Worth Rostering & Investing in DFS
In an article focused on weekly Fantasy Football News and Notes, with the goal of identifying Trends, rookies are the perfect place to start. Rookies are the definition of inconsistent and unreliable, but six weeks is enough of a sample to identify who is still playing like a rookie and who has essentially become a veteran. Talent alone doesn't guarantee opportunities and that's most true with rookies. Cam Akers is a perfect example. His talent should have resulted in an easy position battle victory followed by full-time RB1 snaps. Hasn't happened. Inexperience could be why.
Here are the relevant rookies and whether they can be trusted in Yearly leagues and Daily Fantasy Football.
CeeDee Lamb: WR Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Football Team ($6,500 at DraftKings)
Relevant Stats and League Rankings
- 10th in WR Scoring -- 7th in Receptions -- 8th in Targets
- 50 Targets -- 36 Receptions -- 497 Receiving Yards -- Two Touchdowns - 9.9 Yards per Target -- 13.8 Yards per Reception -- Five Red Zone Targets (Amari Cooper has Seven)
Lamb has been targeted six or more times in every game, he has two 100 yard performances and in all six games he has 59 receiving yards or more and at least five receptions. Real Deal. Fully trustworthy. Full buy. He has only two touchdowns and it was in the same game, but that's an anomaly more than a trend. He is being targeted, both between the 20's and in the red zone. His touchdown production will catch up to his targets and his part in the game plan. The one flaw to a full-throated argument for Lamb is Andy Dalton. His status in the gameplan was the same, or even better, in week six with Dalton as it had been with Dak Prescott. The question going forward is how much to downgrade the entire Cowboy's wide receiving core because the Red Rocket is under center and not Prescott. Fantasy Managers should target Lamb for trade because there should be a discount and that means Lamb could be a slightly buy-low option right now. Especially after Dallas' struggles in Week 6 against a relatively mediocre Arizona Cardinals pass defense.
Week 7 in DFS vs. Washington Football Team ($6,500 at DraftKings)
He is priced slightly more than Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown and slightly less than Tyler Lockett, Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller V and teammate Amari Cooper ($6,900). I would roster Lamb ahead of his pricier teammate in Dallas and Tyler Lockett, who has a tougher matchup and has been less reliably productive through six weeks. I draw the line at Tyreek Hill. Fantasy Managers are better off chasing Hill's upside at a similar price than Lamb's steady-as-you-go season so far. Especially considering the bickering and the questions about how Andy Dalton can lead this offense. A small nugget - Ezekiel Elliot's fumbleitis is a good thing for the pass catchers for the moment. Zeke will get it together, but until he does, it could impact play calling. It's a minor thing but a piece of reality that makes me feel a little bit more confident in Lamb shares this week.
Justin Jefferson: WR Minnesota Vikings vs. BYE
Relevant Stats and League Rankings
- 7th in Wide Receiver Scoring - 31st in WR Targets - 16th in Receptions
- 75.5% of Snaps -- 36 Targets -- 28 Receptions -- 537 Receiving Yards -- Three TD's -- 14.9 Yards per Target - 19.2 Yards per Reception - Three Red-Zone Targets (Thielen leads with 8 at WR - Cook and Mattison overwhelmingly lead the team)
Rookies are traditionally inconsistent and Jefferson, while having a few flashy games, has had a very good, but typical, rookie season. The raw volume of playing time has been there. He has played 75.5% of the Vikings snaos, but he has had only 36 targets (ranking 31st at WR) and 28 receptions (ranking 16th at WR). It's not a surprising picture for a rookie and the story it tells is one of inconsistency and uncertainty. Neither are things Fantasy Analysts like to see in DFS. He has "the game." The question, similar to Lamb in Dallas, is the impact of the quarterback on the remainder of his Fantasy season. Are Kirk Cousin's struggles or limitations the reason for his inconsistency? Jefferson has had three impact receiving yard performances and two significant target games. Three Studs, three Duds, one low target and one high production game has been his 2020. He is a must-start in yearly leagues while it's probably best to fade in DFS due to the unpredictable nature of his season so far. He had a juicy matchup against the Seattle Seahawks and he struggled. The final nail that slams home the uncertainty narrative - he has only been targeted three times in the red zone. One of the lowest percentages on the team. Kirk Cousins is shakey and the Vikings are a run-first offense with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison being the priority both between the 20's and in the red zone.
Chase Claypool: WR Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans ($5,700 on DraftKings)
Relevant Stats and League Rankings
- 15th in WR Scoring - 65th in Targets - 53rd in Receptions
- 24 Targets - 17 Receptions - 335 Receiving Yards - Six Total Touchdowns (4 Receiving/2 Rushing) - Two Red Zone Targets - 59.3 Snap% - 41.4 Snaps per Game
Claypool has maximized his opportunities and while that's fantastic to see, it's reason for concern when it isn't bolstered by volume touches and targets. Touches and targets are the safest way to predict performance and Claypool's are on the low-end. If he had started slow that would be noteworthy, but he hasn't. What's noteworthy is that he has had only one game with more than four targets. That's a trend that should cause concern for Fantasy Team Managers. Claypool had the same number of rushing attempts in weeks five and six as he had passing targets in weeks one and two. It's encouraging that the Steelers are making a concerted effort to get the ball in his hands, but it's discouraging that Ben Roethlisberger isn't looking his way when he runs routes. He needs to be rostered in all leagues because his production is trending up, but he shouldn't be a trade target. In DFS things are a little murkier.
Week 7 in DFS vs. Tennessee Titans ($5,700 at DraftKings)
Claypool is overpriced at $5,700. He's $300 cheaper than Robby Anderson of the Carolina Panthers who has been nails and as consistent as you get while he is more expensive than more experienced veterans like D.J. Moore, D.J. Chark Jr., Tyler Boyd who has been targeted twice as many times as Claypool, and even Brandin Cooks who is a similar type of player. Claypool had a four-touchdown game. That's what the 2020 resume should say at this stage in the season. Instead, the hype is on blast and the sizzle is rambunctious in the Fantasy and NFL media right now. One thing to be encouraged by the Fantasy News and Notes he has been generating is that if his DraftKings price tag was lower I would be alright hitching my wagon to Mr. Claypool. He has three games of 74,88 and 110 receiving yards. That's impact production. If he can put together one or two more of those then I will be far more comfortable accepting his low target totals because of his high production numbers. The Titans do rank sixth-worst in pass plays of 20 yards or more with 14 and they allow an average of 11.4 yards per reception. Both play right into Claypool's wheelhouse. I'm still reluctant. I would rather pay a similar price for Claypool than Smith-Schuster and Brandin Cooks, but I want shares of Tyler Boyd and D.J. Moore instead this week. Touches and targets matter to me and in DFS his low-totals at $5,700 bother me. He is a strong Flex or WR3 play in Yearly leagues.
Jerry Jeudy: WR Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($5,100 at DraftKings)
Relevant Stats and League Rankings
- 33 Targets - 17 Receptions - 266 Receiving Yards - One TD - 68.8 Snap% - 45.8 Snaps per Game - Three Red Zone Targets
- 53rd in WR Scoring - 39th in Targets - 53rd in Receptions
I mentioned Jeudy in this column earlier in the season because of his high target totals after the first three games. His receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns have all been pedestrian but when I see those kinds of target totals that early in his rookie campaign my antennae starts rattling side to side. His recent dropoff slowed my roll. He isn't a must-start in yearly leagues and he isn't cheap enough to be a bargain buy in DFS. He either needs his targets elevated or his overall production to grow, especially touchdowns and red zone targets. The Broncos are a bad offense - a problem that could be improved with Drew Locks aggressive downfield approach. We'll see.
Week 7 in DFS vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($5,100 on DraftKings)
The Snap% is fine while the Chiefs are a middle-of-the-road matchup in week 7, but the stat sheet puts Jeudy outside of the Flex discussion in yearly leagues and at $5,100, he isn't an enticing DFS play. either. He doesn't have a home run matchup, a high enough target count, or a loaded offense to make him an appealing option at $5,100. Teammate Tim Patrick has similar 2020 statistics at $500 cheaper. For Fantasy Team Managers looking for shares at this price point Patrick amongst a dozen or so others are better choices. Fade Jeudy until the targets and the production rise.
Laviska Shenault Jr: WR Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($4,500 at DraftKings)
Relevant Stats and League Rankings
- 35 Targets - 26 Receptions 280 Receiving Yards - One TD - 64.1 SNap% - 53.2 Snaps per Game - Four Red Zone Targets (Tied for second on the Jaguars)
- 34th in WR Scoring - 35th in Targets - 23rd in Receptions
Like Jerry Jeudy of the Broncos, Shenault Jr. has been pretty good if you grade on a curve, which is typically the way things go for rookies. He has been respectable but not outstanding in targets (four games of six targets or more) and receptions (three games of five or more). However, unlike CeeDee Lamb of the Cowboys, the touchdowns haven't materialized. And, unlike Jeudy, Shenault Jr. has competition for touches and targets from legitimate alternatives like Keelan Cole and D.J. Chark Jr. Jeudy has Tim Patrick....so there's that. In Dynasty leagues Shenault looks like he has a future. In yearly leagues, he ranks as a Top 40 wide receiver and with Bye Weeks or Covid-19, that makes him both a must-roster and most weeks, a strong Flex play. In DFS, he is $600 cheaper than Jeudy and at a range where the choices are slim and the price tag makes him a consideration. I emphasize consideration. He is the third WR on an offense that ranks sixth in passing yards and tied for ninth in passing touchdowns. Not bad, but as the third option, a risky Cash-game play and more of a Tournament option.
Week 7 in DFS vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($4,500 at DraftKings)
The Chargers rank 19th in receiving yards allowed and tied for 12th in touchdown passes allowed with nine. A pedestrian matchup if there ever was one. There aren't a lot of juicy plays at $4,500 or less, but there are other risky plays with better situations or friendlier matchups. I prefer his teammate, Keelan Cole, at $4,500 than Shenault at the same price. Until Shenault establishes himself as at least the Jags #2 wideout I am fading him. Throwing darts isn't how I roll, cash or tournaments and that's what Shenault is.
Jonathan Taylor: RB Indianapolis Colts vs. BYE
Relevant Stats and League Rankings
- Rushing: 89 Rushing Attempts - 367 Rushing Yards - Three TDs
- Receiving: 17 Targets -16 Receptions (162 yards) - 50.3 Snap% - 18 Red Zone rushes and Three Red Zone Targets
- 15th in RB Fantasy Scoring - 10th in Rushing Attempts - 14th in Rushing Yards
The touches, the targets and the yards are all there and as long as he is a Colt I don't expect that to change. 4.1 yards per attempt is neither terrible nor fantastic. It's acceptable. He's a Top 15 RB which makes him an above-average RB2 whose ceiling is limited due to a relatively average number of touchdowns. Like most of his statistics, good but not great. Safe floor, limited ceiling - by the numbers. Taylor is a young running back with a lot of potential. Fantasy Team Managers need to be patient with his lack of explosiveness so far in 2020. His only 100-yard rushing game took 26 carries but he does have a touchdown in three of six games. The Colts have been forced to come from behind more than they would like. That's a key to Taylor's ceiling. Phillip Rivers is on the decline even though the passing yards have been fairly good and T.Y. Hilton has been a bust as a result. If the Colts can get a lead and grind out games Taylor has a chance at 20+ carries and 100+ yards per game and if those numbers rise so will the touchdowns and so will his ceiling. Taylor's skill set isn't as explosive as a Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Alvin Kamara, so touches will be crucial. The Colts have multiple games where limiting their opponent's possessions will be an important part of the gameplan. We'll see if the Colts can execute. If they can, Taylor will benefit. He is a buy-low without being an absolute steal right now. Send out some inquiries and see what the price is coming back.
Antonio Gibson: RB Washington Football Team vs. Dallas Cowboys ($5,000 at DraftKings)
Relevant Stats and League Rankings
- Rushing: 64 Rushing Attempts - 243 Rushing Yards - Three TDs
- Receiving: 22 targets - 19 Receptions - 147 Receiving Yards
- 43.9 Snap% - 29.2 Snaps Per Game - 10 Red Zone Attempts
- 23rd in RB Fantasy Scoring - 24th in Rushing Attempts - 31st in Rushing Yards - 18th in Passing Targets for RBs
I am torn when it comes to Antonio Gibson. Dual-threat running backs are my favorite type of Fantasy player. Elite is great, but productive is fine if they can both run between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield. I love that they can be three-down players and regardless of how the game flows, they will be in it in all potential situations. Blowouts and close games. Early downs and late. Running situations and passing ones. Their skill sets are usually explosive and they are often one of the best athletes on the field. That's Gibson. I'm torn because he is a rookie on a bad team and like a lot of dual-threat runners, he is on the lite side physically, calling into question how heavy a workload he can handle and how big of a part will other running backs on the roster play due to their #1's potential inability to tote the rock 180-220+ times a season and 12-15, nevermind 18-22 carries per game. J.D. McKissic has fewer carries but he has played more snaps than Gibson through six games. He has also been targeted more in the passing game. I am not overly concerned with his targets in the passing game. He has had only nine fewer targets and he ranks 18th overall so far this season. He has a touchdown in half the games, which is respectable but not inspiring, while he has only one game of 100+ total yards from scrimmage. That is discouraging. It's only been six games in his rookie campaign, but I would like to see a player that is clearly an important part of Washington's gameplan to be more consistently productive. He isn't a stereotypical red zone target and he has only one game of more than 30 receiving yards and one of 50+ yards or more rushing and they weren't in the same game. A modern day Percy Harvin he is not. He currently ranks in the Top 25 at the position, making him a must-start rookie in yearly leagues but without any truly impactful performances, his price is too expensive to consistently roster in DFS.
Week 7 in DFS vs. Dallas Cowboys ($5,000 at DraftKings)
The Cowboys are in something of a freefall, ranking second-worst in rushing yards allowed and tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed with 10. The matchup is juicy and Gibson is in prime position to be impactful this week. At $5,000 he is priced comparably to running backs like Detroit rookie D'Andre Swift ($5,400), Phillip Lindsay ($5,300), James White ($4,900) and Chase Edmonds ($4,900). Clyde Edwards-Helaire is priced at $6,100, and while he has been consistently more impactful than Gibson, he is much more expensive and has a much tougher situation to navigate with Le'Veon Bell in the mix. Gibson is a strong week 7 play in tournament contests and an intriguing one in cash games because of how significantly cheaper he is than the elite, $6,500 running backs. The matchup and the price make him a viable DFS play this week.
D'Andre Swift: RB Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons ($5,400 on DraftKings)
Relevant Stats and League Rankings
- Rushing: 26 Rushing Attempts - 158 Rushing Yards - Three TDs
- Receiving: 20 Targets - 16 Receptions - 131 Receiving Yards - One TD
- 22 Snaps per Game - Six Red Zone Rushing Attempts - Three Red Zone Passing Targets
- 25th in RB Fantasy Scoring - 49th in Rushing Attempts - 42nd in Rushing Yards - 19th in Passing Targets for RBs
Volume is the clear reason for Fantasy Team Managers to be cautious with Swift. Week six was his only meaningful game as a rushing option and he still only had 14 attempts. On the bright side, he has been a target in the passing game in every game this season and he has four touchdowns in spite of limited opportunities between the 20's. If Detroit is building him up there is an interesting ceiling to buy into here. The skillset and playmaking ability is exciting and we have seen it in small doses and exciting splashes. In yearly leagues, he is a buy-low/waiver wide addition while his lack of touches and targets, on the whole, are reason to fade him in cash games as well as tournaments.
Week 7 in DFS vs. Atlanta Falcons ($5,400 at DraftKings)
$5,400 is a lofty price for a player who hasn't been a meaningful part of the running attack through five games in six weeks in the NFL. The Falcons are a gold mine of opportunity in the passing game, which Swift is a part of, but it has resulted in a minimal amount of success for running backs in the run game. Swift is coming off a ridiculous 8.3 yards per carry in week six so he could have a big day with limited opportunities, but the price is too high to buy. There aren't a lot of good options under the $6,000 price tag. If you're a Fantasy Team Manager stuck in a budget bind, Swift is a viable option in comparison to other RBs in this price range, but spending up is a smart move this week. $5,400 is a lot for this level of uncertainty. That being said, in tournament play, he could be worth a few shares if he can match his 8.3 yards per carry, 100+ yard rushing performance from last week.
Trending
Will Fuller V: WR Houston Texans vs. Green Bay ($6,800 at DraftKings)
Fuller has always been explosive, always been injured and for the most part, always been inconsistent. I called out his price tag in our week six podcast Slate Breakers and now he is at $6,800, similarly priced to Fantasy producers like Julio Jones, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper and Kenny Golladay. In looking at the stats, Fuller might be a buy low and it stuns me to say that. He has a touchdown in four straight games, he has been targeted five times or more in four straight games and seven or more times in four of six games. The result has been 100+ yards in three games. I still consider Fuller a risky player, but for Fantasy Managers that drafted him, he is paying significant dividends and when his DFS price tag was low, a bargain. 100+ yards and a score are crucial in DFS and Fuller is providing that. Even at $6,800, seven catches, 90+ yards and a touchdown is worth the investment. Fuller is trending rather than being a noteworthy mention in this column, and he justifies his price on DraftKings, but I am remaining cautious and fading the talented Texan.
Ronald Jones II: RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
It's a crowded backfield with a loaded core of receiving options in Tampa. That alone has me selling Ronald Jones II. He is trending because he has had 13 carries in five of six games and 17 or more in all six, including back-to-back 100-yard rushing games. He hasn't been productive in the passing game even though he has had his fair share of targets, but three touchdowns is on the low-end of exciting. Jones is the top target in this backfield and he has been productive, making him a solid RB2. That being said, Jones is a draft-day success that I wouldn't target to acquire but that I would sell if the offer was right. I think he is going to decline as the season goes on so if the offer is fair, don't be afraid to pull the trigger and sell high.
Myles Gaskin: RB Miami Dolphins vs. BYE
Fantasy analysts and media are starting to talk about Gaskins and while that typically puts him in the Noteworthy category, he isn't new to producing at a viable level. He has four targets or more, three receptions or more and 22 receiving yards or more in every game this season. He has had 16 rushing attempts or more in three games and he ranks 16th in Fantasy scoring for running backs. If the Dolphins can find a way to get him in the end zone he could finish as a Top 10 RB. For a player being "mentioned" rather than touted, that's a bit of a sin. His 2020 season is a breakout and trending, not just noteworthy.
Travis Fulgham: WR Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
I mentioned Fulgham in a recent column as a Noteworthy, but now, after two highly productive games he has transitioned to Trending, with an *Asterisk.* He is trending because he has been targeted 23 times in the last two games, he has 57 receiving yards or more and a touchdown in all three of his games as an Eagle. That justifies a trending designation. The asterisk is justified because DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and eventually Jalen Reagor and Miles sanders are going to return and I can't in good conscience hype Fulgham with that level of uncertainty coming down the road. I still believe Fulgham deserves the "Don't Be Fantasy Fooled" designation, but for the moment he deserves trending with hesitation attached. Start him Thursday night. For Fantasy Team Managers it's a Must.
Don't Be Fantasy Fooled
Tee Higgins: WR Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns ($5,300 at DraftKings)
Higgins has been targeted six times or more in every game this season, and eight times in back-to-back games, even though he has A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon ahead of him on the priority chart. That's impressive and noteworthy but I still think he is a "Don't Be Fantasy Fooled" situation. At $5,300 he is priced similarly to Jerry Jeudy, Julian Edelman, teammate Tyler Boyd and Brandin Cooks. I prefer all of those options with the possible exception of Jeudy instead of Higgins in DFS even though the Bengals face a Browns pass defense that ranks 4th worst in receiving yards allowed and 5th worst in touchdowns allowed with 13. In yearly leagues, he deserves a start at Flex, especially if your a Team Manager that has been pelted with Bye Week issues, largely due to the friendly matchup. In DFS, I am fading but watching. His "Don't Be Fantasy Fooled" status could become trending if his solid, though less an awe-inspiring production continues.
Noteworthy
Christian Kirk: WR Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks ($4,900 at DraftKings)
I was planning to label Kirk "Don't Be Fantasy Fooled" until I dug deeper. He has three games of 57 receiving yards or more and three touchdowns in his last four games. I'm not suggesting Fantasy Team Managers target him for trade or sell the farm to make him yours, but on a team that likes to throw, does it reasonably well and has DeAndre Hopkins demanding double-teams, Kirk is intriguing. Seattle has been awful against the pass while Russell Wilson to Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf have been the most popular stack in football. Kirk is a very good bring-back in DFS tournaments and at $4,900 he allows DFS players to use valuable dollars elsewhere at running back, a position you don't want to be stuck punting right now.
Chris Mitchell
Chris Mitchell began his Fantasy Sports Writing/Podcasting career with RotoExperts.com, writing about Minor League Prospects, Fantasy Football and Baseball. He won a 2017 FSWA award for "Best Comedy Article" and was Nominated for "Best Fantasy Podcast” in 2018. He has worked as a freelance writer and season-long contributor to BaseballAmerica.com and as a Daily Fantasy Sports analyst for Fantasydraft.com. His content has appeared in a multiple of outlets like The AP, The New York Daily Post, USAToday, Fantrax.com and more. He is President of Bosco Nation, where his Podcasts can be found BlogTalkRadio