Fantasy Football News & Notes: Week 8
NFL Four-Week Trends
From a Data Analysis perspective, Fantasy Team Managers are in a really good statistical place right now. After seven games, sample sizes are at a reliable place while Fantasy Football News and Notes are prevalent for consumption. We have enough of an overall sample to identify an individual or short-term anomalies while three and four-week trends that can be as large as seven weeks allow Fantasy Managers to make informed decisions about what to expect from players the remainder of the season. That not only allows Fantasy Team Managers to evaluate their team's strengths and weaknesses as trade deadlines approach, it makes for smarter Start/Sit decisions as well. T.Y. Hilton is a good example. It is extremely difficult for an analyst like myself, after three or four weeks, to advise Managers to bench a player with the reputation of T.Y. Hilton. Now, after seven games and a four-week trend where he has 14 Fantasy points and 20 targets, even though he did have a bye in week seven, it is a significantly more viable decision. Four-week trends among a seven to 10-week sample tell us who is playing well now while also hashing out whether a player's season is being buoyed by a small sample within a larger one or not. That's important when making difficult Start/Sit decisions.
Here are a few players with informative Four-Week Trends.
Running Back
Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Four-Week Trends:
61 Fantasy Points (4th) - 73 Rushing Attempts (Tied for 1st) - 18 Passing Targets (Tied for 9th) - 364 Rushing Yards (1st)
The Bucs have added every weapon they could get their hands on since the signing of Tom Brady this offseason, from Rob Gronkowski to most recently Antonio Brown, and that included Leonard Fournette. None of it seems to have mattered. Jones is having his best season and has been one of the best Fantasy running backs in football over the last four weeks, even though they added weapons that could have cost Jones touches and targets. All this being true, I am concerned in spite of the recent trends. Fournette had comparable rushing attempts and significantly more passing targets against the Raiders in the Bucs recent victory and I am of the belief that Fournette is an undervalued physical talent. I think he is a much more explosive player than Jones and that eventually that will play out on the field in the form of touches and targets. At the very least, I expect it to be an equal share. Regardless of which of those potential scenarios turn out to be true, that's not good for Jones' prospects in the final five or six weeks of the Fantasy year. Jones deserves props for his 2020 season, but Fantasy Managers should be cautious about acquiring him at the trade deadline.
Jones' four-week trend has me leaning "Don't Be Fantasy Fooled" rather than convinced that 2020 is Jones' career year. Too much competition and too much mediocrity in his history to make me a buyer.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team
Four-Week Trends:
51.50 Fantasy Points (Tied for 9th) - 53 Rushing Attempts (Tied for 13th) - 16 Passing Targets (12th) - 231 Rushing Yards (13th) - 131 Receiving Yards (5th) - Two TDs
Gibson is a rookie and therefore his expectations are lower and his "Must-Start" status is that much more surprising and impressive. That being said, he has only two touchdowns and ranks 9th or worse over the last four weeks for running backs in all of the relevant Fantasy stats I listed here with the exception of receiving yards. Cost is key. It isn't always, but it is sometimes and it is with Gibson. I would pay almost whatever it costs to acquire Derrick Henry, but that's not the case with Gibson. I have zero doubts about what I am getting if I acquire a Derrick Henry and therefore I am willing to pay the full freight to acquire him. Gibson, I'm not as sure. At the right price, I see the upside and I love that about Gibson, but I am not fully comfortable paying top-of-the-market prices for a rookie whose touches and targets rely to some degree on game flow. I am targeting Gibson at the trade deadline, but don't imbibe like a drunken sailor if the opposing Team Manager tries to juice you. Acquire responsibly.
His recent four-week trend does solidify confidence in him and that is important. We are almost halfway through the season and Fantasy Team Managers can feel good that they are getting a must-start contributor the rest of 2020. That's important, especially for a rookie at the trade deadline.
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
Four-Week Trends:
49.50 Fantasy Points (11th) - 27 Rushing Attempts - 13 Passing Targets (Tied for 17th) - 165 Rushing Yards (25th) - 58 Receiving Yards - 4 TDs (Tied for 3rd)
The Fantasy points over the last four weeks have been impressive. 11th best RB in football. The underlying stats concern me. He has fewer rushing attempts than Alexander Mattison and Frank Gore over the last four weeks wh8ile the passing targets are respectable but haven't been league-leading. Four touchdowns sure have helped. Like Gibson, I like the upside and I am buying at the deadline as long as my opposing Team Managers don't try to gouge me. There are two ways to look at Swift after seven weeks. His Fantasy totals are flukey and a bit skewed by his touchdown production or the Lions started him slow, the training wheels are off and the rest of the way we are going to see one of the five or six most talented all-around running backs in football. I am in the latter camp more than the former but I'm not fully embracing that narrative. He isn't Alvin Kamara or Dalvin Cook, but he could be better than Gibson and possibly Gurley the rest of the way. Bullish buy on Swift. The four-week trends are a statement for Swift.
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
Four-Week Trends:
14 Fantasy Points - 20 Targets - 10 Receptions - Zero TDs - Rostered in 66% of Yahoo Leagues
I have always liked the explosive talent, been disappointed by Hilton's production and frustrated by the repeated "Game-Time Decision" status. Fantasy Team Managers were down on Hilton during draft season (#58.4 ADP), but I don't think anyone saw THIS level of bust coming. When I was prepping this profile I thought I was going to be suggesting that it "could" be time to release Hilton. Well, with 34% of Yahoo league Managers already cutting that chord, I guess I am late to the party. Phillip Rivers is just not very good and Hilton is being harmed as a result. Imagine if the Colts were a bust and Hilton was available in trade? That would be intriguing. Instead, Hilton is quietly a bust and can slowly slither into the waiver wire without much fanfare. Another oddity. Antonio Brown is a free agent waiver wire phenomenon while T.Y. Hilton is a relatively ignored release.
His four-week trend could actually make Hilton a buy-low rather than a waiver wire drop. it's hard to believe Hilton isn't Fantasy viable but his four-week trend says exactly that. 14 Fantasy points is a disgrace. Any Fantasy team managers claiming Antonio brown should at least be considering T.Y. Hilton if he is available.
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Four-Week Trends:
15 Fantasy Points - 17 Targets - Eight Receptions - 125 Yards - Zero TDs
Gallup was a bit of a thing in draft season. Dallas looked loaded and somehow Gallup was going to be the "value" that everyone needed to draft. He was drafted at the same time as Will Fuller V (#69.7 ADP) and ahead of Tyler Boyd and two rounds ahead of teammate CeeDee Lamb. I guess some had it WAY wrong. (I wasn't a Gallup guy). Dallas has been awful and getting worse, but a four-week trend eliminates the excuse that it is Andy Dalton's fault or the absence of Dak Prescott. Gallup was either never all that good or CeeDee Lamb is just so impressive that he stole almost all of Gallup's opportunities. Either way, he's rostered in 64% of leagues and that number needs to drop to 0%.
Will Fuller V, Houston Texans
Four-Week Trends:
63.50 Fantasy Points (2nd) - 32 Targets - 19 Receptions - 324Y Receiving ards (6th) - Four TDs
My first thoughts regarding Fuller are always the same "explosive but injured." I hate injured players. I hate the phrase "Game-Time Decision." Therefore, I have never cared for or rostered Will Fuller. But, he is turning me and many across the NFL around. He is a hot name in the trade rumors. He has five consecutive games with a touchdown but he has had two games of 58 and 34 receiving yards in his last three with a 123-yard effort sandwiched between them. He faces a bad Jaguars team in Week nine after the Texans week eight bye. His injury history and unproven career should make Fuller attainable at a more reasonable price than many of the other elite wide receivers. For those attempting to upgrade at WR with fewer assets to spend than some of their league opponents, Fuller may be your guy.
Fuller's last four weeks are in line with his strong start, providing trust and support to those that still have doubts. I can certainly buy into the fear that regression or injury absences are coming, but the numbers don't suggest it. That's what his four-week trend does for Fuller's narrative.
A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
Four-Week Trends
63 Fantasy Points (3rd) - 24 Targets - 18 Receptions - 291 Receiving Yards - Four TDs - Three Games
Fantasy Managers had high expectations for Brown after selecting him ahead of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett during draft season to name just a couple of the elite 2020 wide receivers. His month-long hiatus between September 14th and October 13th has left his narrative muted if not outright silent. In the last four weeks he has been one of the best pass-catchers in Fantasy and he has done it in only three games as opposed to most WRs who have played four. He sits outside the Top 25 in Fantasy scoring for the season but he has been in the top three over the last month. If his pre-season ADP is any indicator, Fantasy Team managers believed in him before the season, so they should be excited about trading for him now. He is undervalued and under-realized in the current climate. The entire Titans offense is. His four-week trend should bring him back on the radar and salvage his trade value while still providing an affordable price due to his lackluster start, of which none of it was his fault. Brown didn't play a snap for almost a month. Of course, he disappeared from the Fantasy discussion. The last four weeks have brought him back.
Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals
Four-Week Trends:
56.50 Fantasy Points (9th) - 23 Targets - 15 Receptions - 220 Receiving Yards - Five TDs (1st)
Kirk is riding the high of five touchdowns in four games, including back-to-back two-touchdown games against the Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks. I mentioned Kirk last week because he was noteworthy and I mention him again because now, after four weeks, he has been trending. He is a part of this Cardinals offense even though I do have some concerns. A potential shift from Kenyan Drake to Chase Edmonds, even after Drake returns from his injury, could impact Kirk's touches and targets. That being said, Kirk is a strong WR3 and Flex play on one of the more explosive passing offenses in the game. He makes the big play and with Edmonds and Hopkins putting pressure on defenses and altering personnel groupings, Kirk should remain a "thing" the rest of the way. He adds depth to an already strong roster and should be considered that way in trade discussions. He isn't going to make or break a playoff team, but he does make your Fantasy team deeper, better and less susceptible to the unpredictable nature of the schedule and sports in general. His four-week trend solidifies that he is a part of this offense and not an anomaly. He's only rostered in 58% of Yahoo Leagues. That's a sin.
Cole Beasley, Buffalo Bills
Four-Week Trends:
47 Fantasy Points (24th) - 29 Targets - 24 Receptions - 242 Receiving Yards - Two TDs
Like Kirk, Beasley isn't a league winner but 24 catches on 29 targets? That's a fascinating percentage. More fascinating, he has been exactly as good as Robby Anderson, Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb and only 1.5 points behind Calvin Ridley over the last four weeks. It's a snapshot - not an entire tale, but it's noteworthy. Beasley isn't a game-breaker. He isn't the guy that has 150-yard games or three score breakouts. He is a reliable contributor that shows up and produces at a low-ceiling level every week. He's been targeted six times or more in all but one game and has been a Flex consideration on his own merits regardless of whether a team is stuck with an unfortunate break or not. With bye weeks, Injuries, and Covid-19 hysteria, he has to be rostered and most weeks started. He's rostered in only 54% of Yahoo leagues. That's Fantasy malpractice.
Noteworthy
Diontae Johnson, WR Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7 Stats:
24.50 Fantasy Points (3rd at WR) - 15 Targets - 9 Receptions - 80 Receiving Yards - 2 TDs
Johnson was a popular "sleeper" entering the draft season and he has proven analysts correct to single him out. When healthy he has been Ben Roethlisberger's number one target. He has three games of 10 targets or more and six receptions or more. JuJu Smith-Schuster is the name but Johnson is the one with the game in Pittsburgh right now. He is a great buy-low with one caveat, injuries. He was hobbled by a back injury prior to Sunday's game, he left that game early with the same injury and didn't practice Thursday. Play doctor best you can and use that to negotiate the lowest price you can on the trade market. He is the Steeler's #1 and a huge target hog to boot.
Scotty Miller, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 7 Stats:
19 Fantasy Points - Nine Targets - Six Receptions - 109 Receiving Yards - One TD
It was going to be hard to find touches and targets for Scotty Miller before they added Rob Gronkowski in the offseason, then Leonard Fournette early in the season and it has become even more difficult to see how he even gets on the field now that Antonio Brown is in the fold. However, like Darwinism, the strong survive and somehow Miller has. He has four games of five receptions or more and 73 receiving yards or more in spite of all the competition and talent in Tom Brady's offense. Gronk has been a four-week beast, Ronald Jones is tearing it up as one of Fantasy football's ten best running backs and yet Miller has managed to carve up some productive games in early, middle and now in a recent game. He is more of a punt play in tournaments and a budgetary consideration in cash games and that's only if you can get past the idea that with Antonio Brown on the field Miller won't be. I can't recommend shares of him when Brown finally finds the field, but once we see what Brown might be, Miller could still be Fantasy viable. It's noteworthy and worth monitoring for the time being. Don't beam him up just yet, but don't sleep on Scotty either.
Gambling Nugget
The road team is 58-46 against the spread in 2020. I play in multiple pick-em leagues and in a few of them, rather than skillfully analyze and make selections, I just choose either the home or the away team EVERY week. I rank second in picking against the spread in the one where I randomly choose the road team. No skill. Just, whose on the road? Yup. Ok. Click. My analysis; the home teams are going to start winning. 46-58 isn't a percentage Vegas can sustain. At some point, and it's probably soon, there is going to be a slate filled with fishy looking spreads in favor of the road teams and the home teams are going to clean house. A blood bath is coming.
Let's look at some of the "intriguing" games on this week's slate.
New England Patriots +3.5 @ Buffalo Bills
Narrative:
The Bills are giving half a point over the field goal threshold to a team that has looked about as awful as any team in football the last two weeks. The Pats and Belichick own Buffalo and the Bills have hardly looked spectacular themselves lately, but it seems like this line should be higher. Who knows what the Patriots will have at QB this week and with Julian Edelman banged up and being "managed" according to reports, this feels like it should be at least +six for the road team. The contrarian me tells me that I am being played the sucker. The Bills aren't giving enough points and yet, I see another road team pulling it out. Line smells bad to this fish. My head tells me Bills win this one going away, big. The fearful gambler in me trusts that Vegas is playing me the sucker. Patriots plus the points.
Indianapolis Colts -3 @ Detroit Lions
Narrative:
It's difficult to trust in the Lions since they are a perennial loser while the Colts are perceived...well they aren't. Nobody thinks or cares anything about the Colts and with the most inconsequential QB in NFL history - Phillip Rivers - they have become even more forgettable and ignorable. Who outside of the Sharpe's and the truly addicted puts a nickel on a Colts game?? This line looks wrong. Both teams are similar in record, while neither is a media darling. Nobody is going to want to watch this game or follow It if they don't have shares on it and the line hasn't moved an inch since open at most books. A home team giving three in a game that has zero sizzle and zero interest? Looks like the books are begging for action. My head tells me Lions at home while the fearful gambler in me says the Colts win it running away with the Vegas sharks laughing at me as they count my losings.
Quick Links
- Fantasy Football Rankings Week 8
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Chris Mitchell
Chris Mitchell began his Fantasy Sports Writing/Podcasting career with RotoExperts.com, writing about Minor League Prospects, Fantasy Football and Baseball. He won a 2017 FSWA award for "Best Comedy Article" and was Nominated for "Best Fantasy Podcast” in 2018. He has worked as a freelance writer and season-long contributor to BaseballAmerica.com and as a Daily Fantasy Sports analyst for Fantasydraft.com. His content has appeared in a multiple of outlets like The AP, The New York Daily Post, USAToday, Fantrax.com and more. He is President of Bosco Nation, where his Podcasts can be found BlogTalkRadio