Javonte Williams Fantasy Forecast 2021
Javonte Williams Fantasy
Javonte Williams was a dynamo in college at North Carolina. His power and speed combination made him an intriguing draft prospect and he barely missed being a first-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft when the Denver Broncos selected him with the third pick of the second round.
He was the third running back off the board, behind only Alabama's Najee Harris and Clemson's Travis Etienne, who were drafted in the first round.
In Williams' junior campaign at North Carolina in 2020, he was graded out as the best running back in the country by Pro Football Focus. His elusiveness and power made him almost impossible to tackle on first contact. He recorded 75 avoided tackles, the most in the nation, and was a big play waiting to happen (his 42 rushes of 10-plus yards were second in the country).
He was a Doak Walker Award Semifinalist after carrying the ball 157 times for 1,140 yards (7.3 yards per carry) and 19 touchdowns in 2020. Williams' best game in the 2020 season came against Miami (Fla.) when he rushed for 236 yards and three touchdowns. Williams rushed for 2,297 yards with 29 touchdowns and a 6.3 yards per carry mark in his three seasons with the Tar Heels.
SKILLSET
Williams is a prototypical big back at 5-foot-10, 212 pounds according to his pre-Draft profile. He is in the mold of a Kareem Hunt, a powerful runner who is difficult to bring down on first contact. He finishes runs well and has good vision for a bigger back. He doesn't have the breakaway speed that some running backs may possess and because of that, he might not have the consistent home-run hitting ability.
He clocked in at 4.55 seconds for his 40 time, which was 45th percentile among draft running backs. His 212-pound frame came from his UNC Pro Day weigh-in and it was down eight pounds from what he was listed on the UNC website (220 pounds).
Williams has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. He does drop passes at times, but he can run the typical routes asked of a running back. Because of this, he projects as a potential three-down back at the NFL level.
However, one of the concerns that NFL teams had about Williams was whether he could handle a feature role after he shared carries for most of his college career including with Michael Carter who was also an NFL Draft pick this year.
LANDING SPOT
Landing with the Broncos is a pretty nice spot for Williams. Phillip Lindsay signed as a free agent with the Houston Texans, leaving the Broncos with Melvin Gordon and Royce Freeman as their main backs. Gordon is in the final year of his two-year deal with Denver. Freeman could be in the mix, but he is not a real threat to be a full-time starter at running back.
So it sets up nicely for Williams to take over a featured role in 2022. As for 2021, Williams could be ready to take on a part-time role as a change of pace running back. With some early success, Williams could definitely eat into Gordon's workload.
Denver obviously envisions a big role for Williams after spending an early second-round pick on him. The question is how quickly Williams can establish himself, but it appears as though this will be the last year of Gordon in Denver, making this a nice spot for Williams.
The offensive situation in Denver isn't ideal right now with Drew Lock as the starting quarterback. The Broncos have a talented receiving core, but the offense will only go as far as Lock can take them and that could be a concern for the running backs.
FANTASY IMPACT
In fantasy football we often see rookie running backs break out down the stretch when given an opportunity whether that comes from an injury, a non-contending team looking toward the future, or otherwise.
This could be the case with someone like Williams, who still has to deal with the incumbent in Melvin Gordon. Gordon was a bit of a disappointment for fantasy last season and as outlined there are concerns about Denver's offense (specifically with quarterback play).
Williams should be selected late in drafts as a flier at a running back position that gets very thin very quickly. A pick of Williams has the chance to pay off in a big way late in the season and he shouldn't cost too much on draft day in re-draft leagues.
Just as there is upside for Williams, there is some downside in a re-draft league this season. He could play second fiddle to Gordon all season as the former Chargers star finishes out the final year on his Broncos' contract or he could be part of a relatively equal split in a committee backfield.
But given an opportunity, this is a good fit for Williams even in his rookie season and he could be someone who can be started with confidence as an RB2 by the end of the season.
DYNASTY VALUE
For dynasty value, running backs tend to have a shorter shelf-life than quarterbacks or wide receivers. You tend to see some of the top college running backs fall in the draft to the second or third rounds as teams don't want to use a large amount of draft capital on the position.
That was the case for Javonte Williams as he slipped into the second round behind first-round picks Najee Harris and Travis Etienne. While Harris and Etienne landed in good environments, all signs point to Williams being one of the top rookies in fantasy value. Harris found a great spot with the Steelers and was considered the better prospect. Etienne will be used in multiple ways by the Jaguars who also have last year's breakout back in James Robinson. But I would put Williams right on par with the two highly-touted running backs.
The Broncos traded up for Williams so they could secure their back for the future. Williams has all the skills to be a feature back and how quickly he becomes a dominant fantasy running back may just depend on when he gets a significant opportunity. If not this season, all signs point to Williams taking over as the lead back in 2022. Then he will immediately be valued as an RB1 for fantasy purposes.
Brian Buckey
Brian Buckey is an avid fantasy sports player dating back to his first fantasy baseball league in junior high school, with fantasy experience in all four of the major sports. Brian currently is a sports writer for The Toledo Blade newspaper in Toledo, Ohio where he grew up. Brian is a proud Indiana University graduate, with a degree in journalism and is excited to provide fantasy analysis for FantasyData.