Fantasy Football News & Notes: Week 10
Fantasy Football News & Notes
Small sample sizes can be misleading when we are talking about Fantasy Football News and Notes, like week nine noteworthy's. But, they can be informative when compared to nine-week sample sizes too. Do the four-week and full-season numbers reflect one another or are they telling conflicting stories? If they are conflicting, is it indicating a rise or a fall or is it just a small sample signifying nothing at all? Trends go both ways. Good and bad. Is Lamar Jackson a must-start Fantasy quarterback right now? His floor and ceiling are both extremely high due to his running ability, but his poor throwing skills and lack of productivity compared to a field of QB's that ALL run makes it a viable question. Ezekiel Elliott...Dallas is awful and getting worse. Is Zeke still an RB2 or is he now a Flex or even worse... a Flex consideration rather than a must-start? When does he become a value in DFS? Running Back is thin and so it's probably intellectually dishonest to try and claim he is a benchable player, but he certainly isn't the Top five pick he was drafted like in August. Why is Christian Kirk being targeted almost as often while producing comparably to DeAndre Hopkins over the last four weeks? Is it a fluke or due to scheme? Is it a trend or an anomaly? A LOT to look at in four-week trends this week. The Fantasy playoffs aren't far away and soon teams will be clinching or eliminated. Now is when some do or die decisions are being made.
Here is some of the information you need to know.
Quick Link: For up to date player updates, check out FantasyData's Fantasy Football News Page.
Noteworthy Fantasy Football News: Week 9
Duke Johnson: RB Houston Texans ($5,000 on DraftKings) @ Cleveland Browns
Week 9: 16 Rushing Attempts - 41 Rushing Yards - 1 Touchdown - 4 Targets - 4 Receptions - 32 Receiving Yards
Duke has always been a plus receiving running back but he had a chance to do some running between the tackles in week nine against a friendly Jacksonville Jaguars. If you could guarantee 15+ carries in the run game then Duke's receiving ability would make him an intriguing dual-threat as a part of an offense that defenses have to focus on stopping Deshaun Watson first. Unfortunately, Fantasy Team Managers can't. Prior to week nine he hadn't had a game with more than five rushing attempts or five targets in the passing game. The Texans don't treat Johnson like anything but a fill-in to get their starters a breather. The Texans do have another friendly matchup against a Cleveland Browns run defense that ranks 23rd against running backs. Johnson is listed at $5,000 on DraftKings, but even as a punt play he isn't really viable. He is worth watching to see if his volume increases, but not much more than that right now.
Chase Edmonds: RB Arizona Cardinals ($6,300 on DraftKings) vs. Buffalo Bills
Week 9: 25 Rushing Attempts (Tied for most among running backs) - 70 Rushing Yards - Three Targets - Three Receptions - 18 Receiving Yards
I love Edmonds dual-threat skill set, I am excited about the volume he received between the tackles in week nine and I like the friendly matchup against a Buffalo Bills run defense that ranks 17th against running backs but hasn't played especially well this season. All the indicators point to a strong second half of the NFL season and the home stretch in Fantasy football for Edmonds. 88 yards from scrimmage is a viable starting running back and at $6,300, that's a solid price tag that is certain to rise if he continues to produce at that level with that kind of volume. He is a great value in DFS play if he can continue that production with a touchdown or two. Good matchup to have shares of this week.
J.D. McKissic: RB Washington Football Team ($4,900 on DraftKings) @ Detroit Lions
Week 9: Three Rushing Attempts - 17 Rushing Yards - 14 Targets - 9 Receptions - 65 Receiving Yards
Antonio Gibson's workload was limited in two of his last three games - both against the New York Giants. Injury is reported to be the reason but with Kyle Allen injured and Alex Smith starting, McKissic is likely to receive more dump-offs and passing game targets even when Gibson is 100%. Pass-catching running backs are typically safe, low-ceiling options since they don't score a lot of touchdowns due to a lack of touches between the tackles or in the red zone. That makes McKissic a respectable Flex in yearly leagues but a poor DFS play. Week nine was noteworthy because while McKissic had been one of the more targeted pass-catching RB's, his volume jumped and his viability may have increased at least slightly. Something to watch but not target...yet.
4-Game Trends In Fantasy Football News
After nine weeks we have a good idea about just who is good and who is not. We also have an idea about who is viable and who is not. What we don't necessarily know is whether certain players are rising, falling, or just hitting momentary bumps in what is otherwise an extremely long and arduous NFL season. Four-week trends combined with full-season statistics provide Fantasy Team managers a nice sample when trying to evaluate start/sit scenarios and even better, overpays and undervalued players in Daily Fantasy Football. And, they go both ways. Good and bad.
Here are some relevant four-game trending players.
Lamar Jackson: QB Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
2020 Season Stats:
Ranked 11th in QB Fantasy Points (159) - 1,513 Passing Yards (Ranked 27th) - 12 Passing TDs (19th) - 469 Rushing Yards (2nd) - Three Rushing TDs
Jackson's running ability provides an elevated floor and an extremely high ceiling, but that's looking at him from a positive perspective. Everyone quarterback runs now, meaning everyone has an elevated, safe floor. It's almost impossible to be a top 10 quarterback if you don't rush the ball from time to time. It almost eliminates it as a relevant aspect of a Fantasy quarterback's profile. I say almost because a few do separate themselves from the pack and there are a few that run very little, separating themselves in another direction. But, they're the exception, not the rule. I have both Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson on a keeper league team and I haven't started Lamar ahead of Rodgers a single week and Rodgers is one of the few QBs that doesn't run. And I haven't regretted it yet. There are seven quarterbacks that have rushed for 200 yards or more and 11 that have rushed for at least 166 yards this season.
In the last four weeks, Lamar Jackson ranks 15th in Fantasy scoring and 30th!!!! in passing yards. Dwayne Haskins Jr. has thrown for 195 more yards than Lamar Jackson over the last four games. Think about that. Jackson has thrown five touchdowns and three interceptions in his last four games. In a Fantasy world where Daniel Jones has passed for more yards, thrown more touchdowns and rushed for only 44 fewer yards, how is Lamar Jackson a must-start or a Top five priced QB in DFS? And, it isn't like the last four are an anomaly. His worst game, an awful one, was week two when he threw for 97 yards while his best game, 275 passing yards, was week one. He doesn't have a 300-yard passing game this season, which is scary considering how routine that has become in today's NFL. His recent performances have been in line with his earlier ones. It isn't a rough patch of opponents or a bad bump in the long road to another MVP. He has been consistently mediocre all season. His four-week trend hasn't been informative except to tell us what we thought we knew after the first month. He just isn't anything special this season. A perfect example of a player where the season totals and the four-week trends tell the same story. Lamar Jackson isn't a must-start QB in 2020 and it's difficult to identify a specific matchup that makes him a better player than an alternative. Until his DFS price drops he needs to be a fade and in yearly leagues, it isn't a bold take to bench him if the alternative has a juicy matchup on the slate.
Ezekiel Elliott: RB Dallas Cowboys (Bye Week)
4-Game Trends: 35.3 Fantasy points (Ranks 41st) - 61 Rushing Attempts (5th most) - 208 Yards - 0 touchdowns.
It's sad but a bye week will both help Dallas work on some issues, get healthier, and prevent Elliott from making a stronger case for benching him. I commented that it was "intellectually dishonest" to try and make the argument that Elliott is benchable, but as the 41st best RB in Fantasy over the last four games....it has a case. The four-week trend for Elliott doesn't really tell a different story from the full season one. His rushing attempts have been relatively consistent from week one to week nine - though they have been lower than they should be most weeks - while the passing targets have dropped off. He exploded for 10 targets in the pass attack the first week without Dak Prescott under center, but they have dried up since, as have the touchdowns. He scored two times in the Giants game when Prescott got hurt and he had scored at least one touchdown in every game but one up to that point. He hasn't scored since.
It would take MAJOR Cajones to bench Elliott, especially considering he returns in week 11 against a Minnesota Vikings defense that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards and have allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns. Elliott should get well in week 11, relatively speaking anyway, but don't be lulled into a false sense of confidence. He faces the best run defense in football in week 12 (Washington Football Team). If Dallas doesn't get it together and start leaning heavily on Elliott, both in the run game and the passing attack, then Fantasy Team Managers have to seriously consider whether he is a start or a sit going forward.
Christian Kirk: WR Arizona Cardinals ($5,700 at DraftKings) vs. Buffalo Bills
4-Game Trends:
79 Fantasy Points (Ranks 9th at WE) 26 Targets - 17 Receptions - 324 Receiving Yards - Five TDs (Tied for 2nd Most)
Kirk has been targeted only four fewer times than Fantasy star DeAndre Hopkins and his stats, while fewer across the board, are just as close, with one significant Fantasy exception - touchdowns. He has scored 15 more Fantasy points with three more touchdowns than Hopkins over the last four games and that's relevant because....how is Christian Kirk receiving as much attention and possibly as much of a focus in the gameplan as DeAndre Hopkins? It isn't that he is leading him in Fantasy scoring, which is a stunner, it's that his touches and targets are comparable. That's what's noteworthy here. What is also noteworthy is that he has not only scored so many touchdowns but that he has scored in four of seven Cardinal games.
The four-game trend isn't all that telling in relation to his season-long story. He was absent altogether in week one but has performed consistently the same all season since. The Cardinals have friendly matchups against the Bills and Seahawks in weeks 10 and 11 as well as the Giants in week 14, while they face a Los Angeles Rams defense that ranks second-best in receiving yards allowed twice. So, Kirk is a must-start in yearly leagues and the Cardinals are a prime stack in at least three games going forward. And, at $2,000 cheaper than Hopkins, Kirk is a far more appealing bring-back for DFS players that want to stack the Bills or the Seahawks rather than the Cardinals in those matchups.
Jakobi Meyers: WR New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens
4-Game Trends:
52 Fantasy Points - 30 Targets (Tied for 21st) - 22 Receptions - 287 Receiving Yards - 0 TDs
Meyers started being relevant in week seven when he was targeted six times for 60 receiving yards. He ranks 21st in targets and tied for 17th in receptions over the last four games even though he has only been viable in two and relevant in three of those four weeks. He has 10 and 12 targets along with an eight reception, 169 yard game against the New York Jets on Monday Night football. I mentioned him on our SlateBreakers podcast a couple of weeks ago as someone to watch and now he is someone that has to be rostered. The Patriots passing game is a work in progress and Meyers still hasn't found the end zone, making Meyers a deeper league option and a limited DFS one.
Meyers was irrelevant in the first six weeks and has only been viable, even in a small way, for three, but it is the most recent three, and that counts for something. He is worth monitoring but not at a point where he is a viable play yet.
Cooper Kupp: WR Los Angeles Rams ($6,900 at DraftKings) vs. Seattle Seahawks
4-Game Trends:
49 Fantasy Points - 43 Targets - 25 Receptions - 230 Receiving Yards - 0 TDs
Kupp is clearly an important part of the Rams passing game, but 5.3 yards per target and zero touchdowns is underwhelming to say the least. He is relevant for this article because while he isn't maximizing his opportunities, there have been a good number of them and he faces a Seahawks pass defense that looks like they're playing with nine men on the field. $6,900 isn't cheap but with the potential for double-digit targets against a defense that everybody gets well against, Kupp's productivity could be really good this week.
Kupp's targets have been consistent all season with one caveat, his four-game total has been skewed by a 20-target game against Miami in week eight. He is being targeted 5-10 times per week with five or more receptions and 65 or more receiving yards most weeks. Expand those totals by as much as half against the Seahawks and you have yourself a stackable Rams offense in week 10.
Robert Woods: WR Los Angeles Rams ($6,600 on DraftKings) vs. Seattle Seahawks
4-Game Trends:
65 Fantasy Points (Tied for 18th) - 28 Targets (Tied for 31st ) - 18 Receptions - 207 Receiving Yards - Three TDs
Woods is more explosive than Kupp and it is reflected by his three touchdowns and more Fantasy points over the last four games. He is targeted significantly less often than Kupp and yet he is priced comparably. I have been of the belief that Woods is underrated and yet he is priced fairly high this week due to the juicy matchup I suspect. Mike Evans, Will Fuller V, and D.J. Chark Jr are all priced lower than Woods. I don't like the price but I do want shares of this game and I prefer Woods to Kupp. Fewer targets and fewer receptions mean less when a player faces a defense as sparse and as empty as the Seahawks. Woods should have his share of touches and it should result in big totals. Possibly even multiple scores. Difficult not to have a few shares of this game, either via a stack or going solo, and Woods is the play in my view.
Woods hasn't been as consistently impactful as I would like to see at this price point, but he does have 70 receiving yards or more in four games spread out over the entire season, ranging from week one to week eight and a couple of games in between. His four-game trend isn't a fluke but just an indicator of what he has been what he is and what Fantasy Team Managers can expect him to be. Take advantage of the matchup this week.
Jerry Jeudy: WR Denver Broncos ($5,600 on DraftKings) @ Las Vegas Raiders
4-Game Trends:
33 Targets - 15 Receptions - 250 Receiving Yards - One TD
Jeudy started the season with 8,7 and 9 targets followed by 4,5, and 4 and then 10 and 14. Drew Lock was injured for a few of those low-target games but he finally went off in week nine. I liked the Broncos low-budget stack in week nine but I was concerned about Jeudy's lack of explosively productive performances prior to that game. Now he has one. I am still hesitant to go hog-wild and 200% in on Jeudy, but I do feel better about his ability to bust out. Las Vegas isn't quite the matchup that the Falcons were, but at $5,600 they don't have to be to make Jeudy viable in DFS. And, after back-to-back double-digit target games, he is a strong Flex play in yearly leagues.
Jeudy's trend is only two weeks, not four, and I still don't love the lack of impact production, for the most part, this season. But, the last two games do reflect what we saw early in the season, which makes it easier to believe it's legitimate and not a two-game fluke. It likely has more to do with Drew Lock under center than anything to do with Jeudy. When Lock is in, Jeudy is viable. That's what this trend indicates.
Brandin Cooks: WR Houston Texans ($5,600 on DraftKings) @ Cleveland Browns
4-Game Trends:
82 Fantasy Points (Tied for 5th) - 39 Targets (6th) - 27 Receptions (Tied for 4th) - 372 Receiving Yards (5th) - Three TDs
Cooks has been targeted nine times or more in four straight games, he has a touchdown in three of his last four. He he faces a Cleveland Browns pass defense that ranks 27th against wide receivers and he is $1,000 cheaper than Robert Woods, $1,900 cheaper than Cooper Kupp, and the same price as Jerry Jeudy. Cooks is a steal this week. He will be in almost every lineup. I stacked DeShaun Watson and Cooks last week along with Will Fuller and at the very least, Cooks will be returning to my rosters in this one.
When Cooks is targeted he produces but it is typically in chunk plays. His receptions per target is low (37 receptions in 60 targets) and we have seen a few games where his targets were low and he was entirely absent from the stat sheet. That's the risk with Cooks and we see that both this season, the last four weeks where his target totals have been high, and over his career. Cooks offenses have to take their shots and if they take enough, eventually it will hit. This week, take your shots. The recent trend is scary exciting and the price on DraftKings is much too low. It would be criminal not to have Cooks all over the place in DFS. He might be my favorite play of week 10.
Gambling Nuggets
The BrainDrain is pissed at The Fearful Gambler. Being 0-4 will do that. It makes you angry and looking to blame someone. For the BrainDrain, he's blaming his "other" half, The Fearful Gambler. The BrainDrain thought the Ravens were the better team and that they were going to run over the relevantly pedestrian Indianapolis Colts, but The Fearful Gambler got in his head. "The line is low. The Colts should be getting more points. The Colts are good on defense. They run effectively. They are at home. This is Vegas fooling us all. The Colts are going to take this one and so are the Sharpe's." That's the narrative that should have resulted in The Fearful Gambler being wrong - which he was - and the BrainDrain being a cash-money winnaaaaa - which he wasn't. He let The Fearful Gambler sell him - sell him out, that is. Anyway, after two weeks and four picks, the BrainDrain is truly terrible at 0-4 while The Fearful Gambler has been an impressive 3-1.
A lot of interesting games this week after an interesting week nine. The Cowboys held their own even though that seemed unlikely. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers got clobbered in a game against division rival New Orlean Saints that most thought would be a Bucs win going away. Similarly, a struggling Buffalo Bills team beat up on a Seattle Seahawks team that was sort of coasting along while a bad Patriots team proved just how bad they are by beating a historically bad Jets team by less than the spread provided. And then there were the Carolina Panthers, who lost by two when they were getting 10.5 by kickoff. If there is something I hate more than losing bets it is losing bets before the end of the third quarter and that's what the Chiefs/Panthers game was if you rode the favorite and laid the 10.5. This week, The Fearful Gambler has a lot to contend with. There were a lot of surprises in week nine. A lot of narratives are changing, getting murky, getting confused. Week nine was the kind of week that rattles the confidence and churns the mind into pretzels. How do the Steelers play THAT bad? How do the Bucs lay an egg with Tom Brady under center in prime time? That game was over before it even began. Ugly. Shocking. Then the Arizona Cardinals. Seriously? The Miami Dolphins with a rookie quarterback put it to you at home? Five-point favorites at home lose by three to a rookie in the second start of his career? Shaking My Head here.
Let's Get to the Week 10 Gambling Nuggets:
I wanted to start with Tennessee -2 vs. the Indianapolis Colts because it feels like Vegas is trying to stick it to me. Rubbing week nine in my face, but the article won't publish in time for that game. The BrainDrain loves Tennessee while the Fearful Gambler thinks Vegas is screwing with us so there's that. Let's move on to the rest of the slate.
Jacksonville Jaguars +13 @ Green Bay Packers
Narrative:
The Jaguars aren't very good, obviously, and they are one of the worst teams in football against the pass, meaning Rodgers to Adams is going to go for a monster number....right? That's the narrative that makes The Fearful Gambler tick.
The Pack is going to bulldoze through them Jags. The Jags have lost by 13 or more three times this season, including to the Miami Dolphins by 18. The Packers defense is pedestrian - middle of the pack both against the run and the pass. The BrainDrain loves high point spreads because in the NFL, a lot of games are close or at least respectable and even if the game isn't competitive, garbage time and the backdoor cover is a beautiful thing. BrainDrain is going Jags. James Robinson and D.J. Chark Jr. All those J's, it's gotta be a sign. The Fearful Gambler is abstaining. He doesn't like trying to predict garbage time blowout performance and what Vegas and the Sharks and the Sharpes see with a line in the double-digits. Good luck BrainDrain, you're on your own.
Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 @ Miami Dolphins
Narrative:
The Dolphins come home after what looks like a huge road upset against an explosive Arizona Cardinals offense that should have rolled them. They don't have an effective running back and they start a rookie QB.... and Miami is laying less than a field goal? The dreaded 1/2 point hook threshold no less? The BrainDrain learned from last week. The better team sometimes just overcomes what Vegas thinks they know and they win when the line looks crooked. The Colts taught him that. The Fearful Gambler, he smells something fishy. The Chargers are 2-6 and this line is under a field goal after a statement win by the Dolphins one week prior? Vegas knows all. Chargers win outright. Thanks for the points to boot. Moneyline this suckaaa. Good Luck Ladies and Gents.
Chris Mitchell
Chris Mitchell began his Fantasy Sports Writing/Podcasting career with RotoExperts.com, writing about Minor League Prospects, Fantasy Football and Baseball. He won a 2017 FSWA award for "Best Comedy Article" and was Nominated for "Best Fantasy Podcast” in 2018. He has worked as a freelance writer and season-long contributor to BaseballAmerica.com and as a Daily Fantasy Sports analyst for Fantasydraft.com. His content has appeared in a multiple of outlets like The AP, The New York Daily Post, USAToday, Fantrax.com and more. He is President of Bosco Nation, where his Podcasts can be found BlogTalkRadio