Fantasy Football Breakdown: Sizing Up Crowded Backfields
One of the most difficult things for fantasy football owners is deciphering crowded backfields. The new norm is for teams is to use multiple running backs. Most teams have a bell-cow early-down back and then a pass-catching third-down back. This often hinders high-upside running backs, who if given a full workload would excel.
We saw this a little bit last year with Miles Sanders, who was stuck behind Jordan Howard in Philadelphia for much of the season. When Howard got injured, Sanders stood out, and with Howard out of the picture is a potential first-round pick this year.
Another slightly different example was Kenyan Drake, who toiled in a running back committee for the Dolphins for several years under Adam Gase. Midway through last season, Drake was traded to the Arizona Cardinals and became a league-winner with a monster stretch to end the season. He is now also considered a first-round pick.
All of this is to say that the biggest breakout running backs often emerge from murky backfield situations. So let's examine several backfields that appear primed for a committee to begin this season.
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor (ADP: 53.8); Marlon Mack (ADP: 58.5); Nyheim Hines (ADP: 183).
Jonathan Taylor is the buzzy player in this group, but Mack topped the 1,000-yard mark last season and scored eight touchdowns in 14 games, finishing as the RB22. Mack is a good running back that should begin the season as the starter. Taylor, though, is an elite prospect who was one of the most productive backs ever at Wisconsin. The setup is great for both running backs running behind one of the best offensive lines in football. Hines is more of a PPR specialist, but he does have value in those leagues.
Who I'm drafting: I'm taking Taylor all day in this scenario. He has tantalizing upside and he is a physical freak who given the opportunity could be viewed as one of the top running backs in the league in the near future. I'm aggressively targeting Taylor in the fourth round (maybe even the 3rd).
Detroit Lions
D'Andre Swift (ADP: 70); Kerryon Johnson (ADP: 79.7)
D'Andre Swift was a second-round pick for the Lions this season after they used a second-round pick on Johnson two years ago. Johnson has battled injuries playing just 18 games the past two seasons. The Lions may be becoming frustrated with his inability to stay on the field. Another injury would open up Swift to a massive role and huge opportunity in fantasy circles. Johnson cannot simply be dismissed, however, and there are scenarios in which he could have a very good season if healthy.
Who I'm drafting: They are priced pretty similarly so I will take the chance on Swift. He is a mid-round pick this year that I could see turning into a first-round pick in 2021 if things break right for him.
Los Angeles Rams
Cam Akers (ADP: 79); Darrell Henderson (ADP: 108.2).
Cam Akers is much more costly than Henderson in early drafts. Akers is an intriguing prospect out of Florida State and offers plenty of upside if he becomes the man in Los Angeles. Darrell Henderson is going into year two and while there was some buzz for him last year, he played a secondary role to Todd Gurley and even Malcolm Brown at times. Henderson recently suffered a soft tissue injury to his leg, so depending on how long he is out it could give a clear path to the lead role for Akers.
Who I'm drafting: Originally I was going to take the discount on Henderson. But I think Akers has to be the guy to draft right now after the injury news for Henderson. Akers' ADP is likely to rise steadily with the recent news, but he could excel with consistent touches.
Miami Dolphins
Jordan Howard (ADP: 92.7); Matt Breida (ADP: 94.6)
This is an interesting backfield for this season. I still think Howard is a productive rusher who could have a very good season. He has shown before that he can handle the workload for a team. Breida is more of a wild-card as a speed demon who is a capable receiver out of the backfield.
Who I'm drafting: While Howard may be the steady option, I will take the upside of Breida who should contribute much more in the passing game. If he stays healthy I like Breida to outscore Howard even if they share the backfield for the whole season.
Washington football team: Antonio Gibson (ADP: 138.9); Adrian Peterson (ADP: 147.8); Bryce Love (ADP: 244).
It's hard for me to get excited about Peterson. On the back end of his career, I think it's more beneficial to target Gibson and Love. Gibson is a complete wild card who in his senior season at Memphis had just 33 carries. He is a game-breaker, though, out of the backfield and has excellent receiving ability. Washington should get creative with how they use him. Love is intriguing because you can get him from next to nothing in the draft. He has battled injuries throughout his brief NFL career, but was elite at Stanford and offers some profit potential.
Who I'm drafting: Gibson is shooting up draft boards after Derrius Guice was released and is enticing. I think the price will be too high, though, by late draft season. Give me Love as a dirt-cheap flier.
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Brian Buckey
Brian Buckey is an avid fantasy sports player dating back to his first fantasy baseball league in junior high school, with fantasy experience in all four of the major sports. Brian currently is a sports writer for The Toledo Blade newspaper in Toledo, Ohio where he grew up. Brian is a proud Indiana University graduate, with a degree in journalism and is excited to provide fantasy analysis for FantasyData.