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Lamar Jackson made the leap to QB1 overall in 2019, after throwing for a league-high 36 touchdowns and rushing for over 1,200 yards. The reigning MVP did most of his damage as a runner but was also efficient as a passer. His true passer rating (112.5) was second-highest in the NFL and his accuracy rating ranked fifth-best.
His distance per attempt on deep pass attempts (9.2) was seventh-highest and his air yards per attempt was sixth-highest (4.7). Jackson’s style of play as a downfield passer, that can also add value with his legs, makes him the perfect fantasy quarterback. He also benefitted from great offensive line play.
He had great protection from his offensive line in 2019 with the third-highest protection rate (87.3%). The Ravens did lose veteran Marshal Yanda but drafted his potential replacement in the NFL Draft. Expect the offensive line to continue to be a strength in 2020.
The only concerns for Jackson are injury. In 2020, the Ravens could decide to have him run less to expose their franchise quarterback to fewer hits. That would ultimately hurt his rushing upside to some extent and would be a net negative even if he increases his overall passing attempts.
However, Jackson’s arsenal of weapons surrounding him has improved from last season, so you could see him throw more as he can forego tucking and running. Remember Jackson himself said during the 2019 season that he hates running and he does it only when he has to. He would rather throw touchdowns than run them.
We will not likely see a repeat performance for Jackson as a runner in 2020, but regardless he will still be a top-three option at the position for 2020.
It looked like Patrick Mahomes was going to repeat his stellar 2018 numbers through the first month of the 2019 campaign but a mid-season knee injury cost the third-year superstar signal-caller a pair of games and limited his mobility down the stretch. Still, Mahomes posted top-10 fantasy numbers and remains the safest bet in a really deep quarterback position.
The defending Super Bowl champs return fully intact and should be even more explosive with the addition of first-round running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire opening up the offense even more. Now fully healthy, expect Mahomes to average close to 300 passing yards and close to three touchdowns tosses per game at the helm of Andy Reid's potent attack. He should be the first quarterback selected in almost every fantasy league this year, regardless of format.
Even after breaking out for a career-high 4,902 passing yards and scoring 33 total touchdowns, Prescott continues to be one of the best values in fantasy football. While not generally regarded as a top-5 fantasy signal-caller, Prescott finished as the QB3 in 2019, has improved each and every season, and may now have the most talented receiving corps in all of football.
While Prescott's rushing numbers dipped last season, he's an elite scrambler who will account for 300-plus rushing yards and 4-6 touchdowns on the ground. But Prescott's improvements as a passer are what put him in elite company, particularly as a deep-ball passer. In 2018, Prescott finished second in the league in both air yards and deep-ball accuracy. The addition of dynamic first-round play-making wide receiver CeeDee Lamb should only make Prescott and the Dallas passing game even more potent.
The Cowboys had the NFL's No. 1 rated offense in 2019 and have the chance to be even more potent with Mike McCarthy replacing Jason Garrett as head coach. Additionally, Dallas has the league's third-easiest schedule in 2020, which includes six games against the lackluster NFC East and non-divisional contests versus the Browns, Cardinals, Falcons, and Bengals. Dak Prescott looks poised to break-the-bank with his best season and has a shot at competing for overall QB1 numbers.
Wilson was outstanding in 2019, finishing as a top-three option at the position. Per usual, Wilson’s efficiency rose above his lackluster volume with him averaging just 32.2 passing attempts per game (23rd overall). However, Wilson’s volume ranked very high in volume in the red zone.
Wilson had the second-most passing attempts (92) and in touchdown throws (25) in that area of the field. Wilson led all passers in yards in the red zone (389). He also ranked fourth in air yards (2,521), fifth in air yards per game (157.6), distance per attempt (9.7), and third in deep ball attempts (83).
Expect to see more of the same from Wilson in 2020 as a locked-in top-five option at the position. Wilson has now thrown for at least 31 touchdowns for three straight seasons and adds value as a rusher with an average of 434 rushing yards during that span. Wilson is never going to finish highly in overall passing attempts do to the Seahawks’ resilience do unleash their quarterback.
Despite that, Wilson has shown consistency with his efficiency year over year and gets volume in the metrics that translate more to fantasy points like red zone usage, air yards, and downfield passing. If for some reason Seattle was forced to turning to Wilson more, he could be projected to finish as the QB1 overall.
Deshaun Watson has had a tumultuous offseason with his head coach making questionable roster moves left and right. No move impacted Watson more than the departure of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Still, Watson does have other weapons brought in by Bill O’Brien like David Johnson and Brandin Cooks. Watson despite losing Hopkins, still has a surplus of weapons that he can use downfield.
If you factor in tight ends and receivers on Houston, there are more five players that have career yards per target that exceed eight yards. Every single fantasy quarterback that has finished in the top-six in the past four seasons has had at least two receivers with career yards per target of at least eight yards. Watson projects to be an effective downfield passer in 2020 especially based on his 2019 metrics.
Watson ranked number four in pressured completion percentage (44.8%), eight in air yards (2,842), tenth in air yards per game (157.6), fourth in deep ball attempts (81), seventh in deep-ball completion percentage (42%), and sixth in distance per attempt (9.3).
Watson will always have an edge in fantasy because he has upside as a runner. He has at least 80 rushing attempts, at least 400 rushing yards, and an average of six rushing touchdowns over his last two seasons. Factoring his threat as a runner with him attacking the field aggressively downfield, do not overlook Watson for 2020 despite the loss of Hopkins. He is still has a shot to finish as QB1 overall.
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